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    NIDGE

    Droopys Nidge is a tremendous bet to win the Irish Greyhound Derby @ 12/1.
    In a test of speed he is clearly the fastest in the lineup by some considerable distance and possesses superior early gears than most of his rivals. He'd have been favourite for any of the last 10 Derbies IMO and this one looks to be a weaker than normal affair. I'd personnally have him about 7/2.
    The sponsors Boyles have a tremendous special where up to a max stake of 100 euro they refund (as a free bet) if your antepost bet is eliminated in the first 3 rounds - this means they'll refund on 114 of the 138 starters. If Nidge makes the final 24 he'll be around 2/1.

    PS this starts tonight so I reckon the offer will be gone after today, 8pm.
    Last edited by Arazi; 07-08-14, 13:46.

    #2
    Had a bet at 10's.

    Thanks Arazi.
    This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
    All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
    The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.

    Comment


      #3
      ya he's a machine will defo be on him also like Holdem Spy at 20's huge pace when running on very unlucky in the English derby.
      https://twitter.com/#!/TedCullinane1

      Comment


        #4
        Where is that special mentioned? Cant see it on the site


        edit: found it, nevermind

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by shanboghted View Post
          ya he's a machine will defo be on him also like Holdem Spy at 20's huge pace when running on very unlucky in the English derby.
          Holdem is a very fast dog, a bit dopey thou. The other one I like at the price is Emers Superstar, and I've had something small on Vulturi but for me DN is head and shoulders the best in it.

          Comment


            #6
            Cheers op, Can't see any betting for this outright, only heats?
            https://www.facebook.com/pages/Mayo-...0391231?ref=hl

            Mayo's longest running and most successful pub poker league. Teach O'Hora, Kiltimagh every Wednesday night, entry €20. Re-entry €20.

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Mike View Post
              Where is that special mentioned? Cant see it on the site


              edit: found it, nevermind
              I cant see it either, help would be appreciated
              https://www.facebook.com/pages/Mayo-...0391231?ref=hl

              Mayo's longest running and most successful pub poker league. Teach O'Hora, Kiltimagh every Wednesday night, entry €20. Re-entry €20.

              Comment


                #8
                the offer description is in the promotions section

                and the irish derby betting is in greyhounds/ future greyhounds

                Comment


                  #9
                  if he does get knocked out, can someone advise us non dog racing followers, as the refund is as a free bet and they usually only last a week.

                  much appreciated

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by shrapnel View Post
                    the offer description is in the promotions section

                    and the irish derby betting is in greyhounds/ future greyhounds
                    ta, found it. i presume by putting on a bet i automatically get the money back deal? Apologies not much of an online gambler on racing
                    https://www.facebook.com/pages/Mayo-...0391231?ref=hl

                    Mayo's longest running and most successful pub poker league. Teach O'Hora, Kiltimagh every Wednesday night, entry €20. Re-entry €20.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by MayoPokerTour View Post
                      ta, found it. i presume by putting on a bet i automatically get the money back deal? Apologies not much of an online gambler on racing
                      You do yes

                      Comment


                        #12
                        I'd never even think of putting a ton on a dog race, never mind a round robin.
                        Ah well €100 here we go
                        People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                        Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                        https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                        Comment


                          #13
                          On for a spin, if we make the Final is it on RTE? (will be in Spain)

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
                            On for a spin, if we make the Final is it on RTE? (will be in Spain)
                            It'll be on RTE even if we dont make it.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              In for the spin. €50 win on Nidge. My biggest ever bet to date was €20 ew on a horse that romped home so hoping for the same here. Needless to say I'm not the biggest or most frequent gambler around.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Does the free bet only apply to online or will in shop offer the same??

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Cheers for the heads up. I stuck a few sheckles on it.
                                  "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by brady23 View Post
                                    Does the free bet only apply to online or will in shop offer the same??
                                    Shops too

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Will there be enough liquidity on BF to lay off come the final 24 should he make it?

                                      I have threw €100 on it regardless but I am curious. I am guessing there will be based on the fact there is a certain amount of liquidity there already.
                                      Pm for rakeback deals

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        There will be some on the front end alright but not lots.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          ...of course I seen this after 8pm...I checked paddy power and betting unavailable...will it be back on tomorrow do you think?...

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Yeah for sure. Price could be shorter as some of the fancied ones have run poorly (Nidge doesn't start until Sat night) and possibly the offer may no longer apply.

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by luckforsome View Post
                                              ...of course I seen this after 8pm...I checked paddy power and betting unavailable...will it be back on tomorrow do you think?...
                                              Probably the first day in months that I haven't looked in here all day FFS!
                                              Turning millions into thousands

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Arazi View Post
                                                Yeah for sure. Price could be shorter as some of the fancied ones have run poorly (Nidge doesn't start until Sat night) and possibly the offer may no longer apply.
                                                Hey Arazi, I never back dogs so I've no idea what to look for. I followed the instructions in here earlier to place the bet. Anyway, where should I be looking for updates? Or will you be posting an update after the race here? I assume if he wins this place will be buzzing but I'd like to keep updated on my phone in work all weekend. ty

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  The first rd is this week, thurs and sat, where there are 23 heats with the top 4 progressing (a couple of 5 to qualify heats including one where the third fav outright was eliminated tonight). This gets it from 138 dogs down to 96.

                                                  Then it's 3 to qualify from 6 every night afterwards, 96 to 48 to 24 (quarters) to 12 (Semis) to the final 6.

                                                  The second rd is split over thurs and sat of next week and then it's every Saturday after that. The final will be Saturday 5 weeks.

                                                  The heats will be live in the betting shops or igb.ie have a mobile app where u can open an account and bet €1 to watch a race.

                                                  If u like I'll update after he runs each week.

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    Updates on igb.ie
                                                    Go to the results section and check Shelbourne Park or else the Talking Dogs section will have previews and reports.

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Arazi View Post
                                                      Updates on igb.ie
                                                      Go to the results section and check Shelbourne Park or else the Talking Dogs section will have previews and reports.
                                                      Thanks very much for all the info Arazi. No need to update thread after each race. You provided more than enough info for me to follow, ty. Just gotta wait to collect 500 quid in a few weeks so

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        Any guesses when betting will be available again for this? Assuming the refund promo isn't available any more, what price would you say is still +EV? Cheers for the tip Arazi.
                                                        Poker Podcast Playlist

                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          Super dog..massive potential, great times posted and has a good chance of winning the Derby. However, 10s or 12s is an incredibly short price. Some of the analysis here has been quite misleading. There is absolutely no way he could be a 7/2 shot as stated. It's wildly over stating it to say this. Also, it's really pushing it to say he would have been favourite for the last 10 derbies. Bottom line is the dog is still a novice. His price is very very short indeed. Early gears and early pace is great but what will he do when he doesn't break well against top class opposition? There are a lot of rounds to get through in the derby. Speed and clock isn't enough for the derby. Greyhound racing is precarious enough as it is and it's madness to be excited about the price about Nidge. There are dogs in there that are more proven than him that are the same price just to make the final. 10/1 is a dinky price. There is a trend where spectacular dogs fail to fulfil promise due to poor tracking or lack of being truly genuine. We'll see. I definitely wouldn't be going mad on him.

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by dobman88 View Post
                                                            Hey Arazi, I never back dogs so I've no idea what to look for. I followed the instructions in here earlier to place the bet. Anyway, where should I be looking for updates? Or will you be posting an update after the race here? I assume if he wins this place will be buzzing but I'd like to keep updated on my phone in work all weekend. ty
                                                            He wasn't racing tonight but the 4th favourite is gone after a serious injury and 2nd favourite barely got through with a poor 4th place


                                                            For anyone on Droopys Ridge then Race #3 @8:10 on Saturday, Trap 6 in the lovely black and white striped. Anyone on Holdem Spy is race #1 trap 6 too


                                                            edit to add, in agreement with tony above - was contemplating ballymac vic myself but figured I'd be a sheep
                                                            Last edited by mdoug; 07-08-14, 21:52.
                                                            Go big or go homeless.

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              Yeah have ballymac vic myself with a low level of confidence. Also on tyrur sugar ray and a speculative punt on priceless lassie. She's a novice and the value is well and truly gone. In for the craic though. Although history don't favour da bitches yo.
                                                              Last edited by TonyCascarino; 07-08-14, 22:10.

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by TonyCascarino View Post
                                                                Super dog..massive potential, great times posted and has a good chance of winning the Derby. However, 10s or 12s is an incredibly short price. Some of the analysis here has been quite misleading. There is absolutely no way he could be a 7/2 shot as stated. It's wildly over stating it to say this. Also, it's really pushing it to say he would have been favourite for the last 10 derbies. Bottom line is the dog is still a novice. His price is very very short indeed. Early gears and early pace is great but what will he do when he doesn't break well against top class opposition? There are a lot of rounds to get through in the derby. Speed and clock isn't enough for the derby. Greyhound racing is precarious enough as it is and it's madness to be excited about the price about Nidge. There are dogs in there that are more proven than him that are the same price just to make the final. 10/1 is a dinky price. There is a trend where spectacular dogs fail to fulfil promise due to poor tracking or lack of being truly genuine. We'll see. I definitely wouldn't be going mad on him.
                                                                Would not be an expert on greyhounds but you are 1/10 to be right that he wont win it! My point is that is is easy to knock a tip that is 12/1... you are long odds on to be right. If he gives people a good spin at a decent punting price (10-12/1) then a great wager he is. He is 1/3 to win the heat on sat. Also, as it is sponsored by Boyles they showed the first heats live on their live feed tonight (maybe it was live on the full live stream?)... I assume they will do the same on sat so check it out in the shops
                                                                D15 CASINO, Mulhuddart Village (opp Blanchardstown shopping centre)

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  Hi Tony,
                                                                  I've no problem with anyone disagreeing with my opinion, it's obvious that all of the odds compilers are in disagreement but I take exception at you saying that anything I've said is misleading.
                                                                  On all known form Nidge is the fastest dog in the Derby by a considerable way. He starts and he stays.
                                                                  There are 138 entries, 100 plus can't win it, they only serve to eliminate contenders when they get it wrong.
                                                                  IMO (which is what I said) Nidge has a 20% plus chance of winning based on his clocks, running style and indeed potential to improve beyond what he's already done, that's 7/2 - 4/1.
                                                                  What price would u see him being at the 1/4 final stage given he only runs to what he's currently shown? Is my projection misleading?
                                                                  Outside of the He Said So derby (this was the one with Maldini, Marco & Westmead Hawk) where he may still have been Fav which Derby do you think he'd have not been Fav?
                                                                  Last edited by Arazi; 07-08-14, 22:41.

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Arazi View Post
                                                                    Hi Tony,
                                                                    I've no problem with anyone disagreeing with my opinion, it's obvious that all of the odds compilers are in disagreement but I take exception at you saying that anything I've said is misleading.
                                                                    On all known form Nidge is the fastest dog in the Derby by a considerable way. He starts and he stays.
                                                                    There are 138 entries, 100 plus can't win it, they only serve to eliminate contenders when they get it wrong.
                                                                    IMO (which is what I said) Nidge has a 20% plus chance of winning based on his clocks, running style and indeed potential to improve beyond what he's already done, that's 7/2 - 4/1.
                                                                    What price would u see him being at the 1/4 final stage given he only runs to what he's currently shown? Is my projection misleading?
                                                                    Outside of the He Said So derby where he may have been Fav which Derby do you think he'd have not been Fav?
                                                                    Well saying he should be a 7/2 shot is misleading. He has a good chance but saying he should be that short is a little ott. I'm not interested at what price he is at the 1/4 final stage. I just think he's very short at 10s and is definitely not a 7/2 shot masquerading as a 10/1 shot. That's where I think you are being misleading. I never said he wouldn't win but when people with little or no knowledge read your post they are tempted to back him on said info. I just think you over did it that's all. It's very hard to back up claims such as being the fav for last 10 derbies and that he is massively overpriced at 10/1. I just fail to see how you can back up such lofty claims. In relation to comparisons over the last decade, you may as well be comparing different tracks shelbourne has changed that much. It's very hard/ impossible to compare dogs/times of the last 10 years.

                                                                    Might I add, that as a greyhound fan I hope such novices turn out to be superstars. It's good for the industry. This game needs a superstar. A genuine superstar. One that wins no matter what. I'd love if nidge was that as it gets people back in the gates. But a 7/2 shot he aint.
                                                                    Last edited by TonyCascarino; 07-08-14, 22:52.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #35
                                                                      Why do you keep saying 10/1? He was 12/1 in 4 places when Arazi said. There's a bit of a difference in 10/1 and 12/1 tbh

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #36
                                                                        In Arazi we trust.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          #37
                                                                          There was a period in late 2012 and early 2013 where the Shelbourne track was running ridiculously fast (on average prob 40 spots based on what dogs had done before and since). If you take that period out then in his short 6 race career Droopys Nidge is just about the fastest dog to run Shelbourne and he has better early than most. As a wide seed he'll be in 5 or 6 most nights, where he wants to be.
                                                                          Most of the credible alternatives to him this year have already fallen away thru injury (Siderian Rhythm, Siderian Blaze, Greenwell Hulk).

                                                                          I can't envision a line up right now where you could hand pick 5 other dogs in this Derby and he'd be Odds against, seriously try it, he can't be badly drawn.
                                                                          He'll be odds on every night, massively odds on to qualify.
                                                                          If he misses it in top class company he may struggle but he'd be unlucky to be in top class company before the 1/4s of this Derby.
                                                                          I'd be backing him at 5s for this right now.

                                                                          [edit to say that backing him at 5s does not mean I think he's 5/1, it means I think he's value at 5/1]
                                                                          Last edited by Arazi; 07-08-14, 23:22.

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #38
                                                                            Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                                            Why do you keep saying 10/1? He was 12/1 in 4 places when Arazi said. There's a bit of a difference in 10/1 and 12/1 tbh
                                                                            That's why I said 10 OR 12s. He was and is 10s currently with PP for example. Not sure what your point is tbh.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              #39
                                                                              Originally posted by Arazi View Post
                                                                              There was a period in late 2012 and early 2013 where the Shelbourne track was running ridiculously fast (on average prob 40 spots based on what dogs had done before and since). If you take that period out then in his short 6 race career Droopys Nidge is just about the fastest dog to run Shelbourne and he has better early than most. As a wide seed he'll be in 5 or 6 most nights, where he wants to be.
                                                                              Most of the credible alternatives to him this year have already fallen away thru injury (Siderian Rhythm, Siderian Blaze, Greenwell Hulk).

                                                                              I can't envision a line up right now where you could hand pick 5 other dogs in this Derby and he'd be Odds against, seriously try it, he can't be badly drawn.
                                                                              He'll be odds on every night, massively odds on to qualify.
                                                                              If he misses it in top class company he may struggle but he'd be unlucky to be in top class company before the 1/4s of this Derby.
                                                                              I'd be backing him at 5s for this right now.
                                                                              Well your own price has drifted from 7/2 to 4s to 5s today alone. I am aware of all the above. My point still remains that I think it's misleading to say that he is a 7/2 shot masquerading as a 10 OR!!!! 12/1 shot. You obviously know your stuff as demonstrated in above but I think your analysis is a little skewed. That affects how people bet.

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                #40
                                                                                Anyway you may of course be correct, time will tell. Fwiw thou I wouldn't tip anything up here that I wasn't prepared to have my bollix on so fingers crossed.

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  Random stranger on internet posts tip.

                                                                                  bet>>>>>collect>>>>>titties!

                                                                                  It's simple Tony

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    Originally posted by TonyCascarino View Post
                                                                                    Well your own price has drifted from 7/2 to 4s to 5s today alone. I am aware of all the above. My point still remains that I think it's misleading to say that he is a 7/2 shot masquerading as a 10 OR!!!! 12/1 shot. You obviously know your stuff as demonstrated in above but I think your analysis is a little skewed. That affects how people bet.
                                                                                    He said he'd back him at 5s as in he'd feel he is still overpriced at 5s. So his price hasn't changed. The debate is welcomed but your argument is weak.
                                                                                    airport, lol

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      Originally posted by Arazi View Post
                                                                                      Anyway you may of course be correct, time will tell. Fwiw thou I wouldn't tip anything up here that I wasn't prepared to have my bollix on so fingers crossed.
                                                                                      And that's completely fair enough. I just wanted to give a counter argument on my opinions of the dogs chances. He is a sensation. Has a great chance. I hope he does well (but mot as well as my selections! ) I'd just be a little mote wary than you. Hope it's a great derby and I hope you enjoy it. If Nidgey wins it, I hope he does it in style and I'll be applauding him if he does.

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        fwiw I think he will be a lot higher than 7/2 after the 3 rounds of qualifying but in saying that I still think 12/1 was good value, 10/1 would be dodgy without the money back but 5/1... not with a barge pole! You had me up to that point
                                                                                        Go big or go homeless.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Skywalker Farloe is going to win this.

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
                                                                                            In Arazi we trust.
                                                                                            It's grand, I'll just ban him it it doesnt win
                                                                                            People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                                                                            Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                                                                            https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              Originally posted by mdoug View Post
                                                                                              fwiw I think he will be a lot higher than 7/2 after the 3 rounds of qualifying but in saying that I still think 12/1 was good value, 10/1 would be dodgy without the money back but 5/1... not with a barge pole! You had me up to that point
                                                                                              You really are a gambling expert.
                                                                                              This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
                                                                                              All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
                                                                                              The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                I love how everyone just lumps on a dog that most of us know absolutely nothing about. Such degeneracy.
                                                                                                Last edited by shano_88; 08-08-14, 13:59.

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  Originally posted by shano_88 View Post
                                                                                                  I love how everyone just lumps on a dog that most of us know absolutely nothing about. Such degeneracy.
                                                                                                  People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                                                                                  Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                                                                                  https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    #50
                                                                                                    Originally posted by shano_88 View Post
                                                                                                    I love how everyone just lumps on a dog that most of us know absolutely nothing about. Such degeneracy.
                                                                                                    I would class this as the complete opposite of degeneracy.
                                                                                                    This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
                                                                                                    All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
                                                                                                    The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      #51
                                                                                                      Originally posted by Theresa View Post
                                                                                                      I would class this as the complete opposite of degeneracy.
                                                                                                      Sounds like something a degenerate would say.

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        #52
                                                                                                        Originally posted by shano_88 View Post
                                                                                                        I love how everyone just lumps on a dog that most of us know absolutely nothing about. Such degeneracy.
                                                                                                        Watch the semi-finals of the ECC Champion Puppy 525,the Graham Holland trained Quick Blaze lands the first semi-final in 28.56, and we catch up with Nicky Ho...


                                                                                                        Just so you can know a little bit more (go to 2.26). This is the fastest run of the year over the standard 525 yard trip in Shelbourne Park (he also holds the 2nd fastest plus the fastest 2 runs over the Derby trip of 550 yards).

                                                                                                        As an FYI 0.07 seconds equates to a length.
                                                                                                        In 2014 for the 525 Nidge has done 2800 and 2809, the next 2 fastest were 2821 and 2825 both by dogs who miss the Derby thru injury.
                                                                                                        For the 550 Nidge has done 2932 (the 4th fastest run ever in only his 4th race), the next fastest this year by a contender in the Derby is 2959.
                                                                                                        Last edited by Arazi; 08-08-14, 14:17.

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          #53
                                                                                                          Originally posted by shano_88 View Post
                                                                                                          I love how everyone just lumps on a dog that most of us know absolutely nothing about. Such degeneracy.
                                                                                                          [x] Degeneracy: Lumping on random dogs because you happen to walk past a bookies

                                                                                                          [ ] Degeneracy: Only backing a dog on the advice of the likes of Arazi

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            #54
                                                                                                            Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
                                                                                                            [x] Degeneracy: Lumping on random dogs because you happen to walk past a bookies

                                                                                                            [ ] Degeneracy: Only backing a dog on the advice of the likes of Arazi

                                                                                                            You cant even make a tongue in cheek comment these days without your use of words being analysed!

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              #55
                                                                                                              And Fran the man hasn't even gave his opinion yet.
                                                                                                              airport, lol

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                #56
                                                                                                                Originally posted by Theresa View Post
                                                                                                                You really are a gambling expert.
                                                                                                                ... not sure if/why you are trying to have a dig at me here really :/. My uncle trains and runs dogs and my grandad used to before him. I head with him sometimes, but he often tells me thoughts on dogs antepost as he knows I love a good gamble.. was just giving my(his) 2 cents on it so that people don't get too excited about it possibly being 2/1 come final 24
                                                                                                                Go big or go homeless.

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  #57
                                                                                                                  Originally posted by shano_88 View Post
                                                                                                                  You cant even make a tongue in cheek comment these days without your use of words being analysed!
                                                                                                                  Hard to understand tone on the internet sometimes...

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    #58
                                                                                                                    Its gas that we all insta lump but Id happily follow a few punters on this board in blind on any gamble.

                                                                                                                    Arazi is one of those punters.
                                                                                                                    This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
                                                                                                                    All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
                                                                                                                    The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      #59
                                                                                                                      Good riddance
                                                                                                                      Go big or go homeless.

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                        #60
                                                                                                                        Originally posted by mdoug View Post
                                                                                                                        Good riddance
                                                                                                                        Did nidge lose?

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