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    Copa America betting

    This is the first time I've started a thread on here. Just somewhere to put our betting on it. I'm planning on betting on most matches on this for the lolz because I'm missing football (damn my not liking other sports).

    Dunno if I'll stay up to see much of the opener tonight because it's starting late (1:45am) unlike most matches. Anyway I couldn't find a bet worth making with the Argies being 1/11. And that's a going to be the case with a number of the matches. I have put only €300 into my starting bank for the tournament so there's nothing I can do with such large odds on games.

    I plan on betting in running for the first couple of rounds because I don't really know a lot of the teams. The only bets I've made so far are Cavani to be top scorer @ 16 or 18 to 1, and Paraguay to beat Ecuador and for there to be 1 or 2 goals in the game.

    Brazil's central midfield of Lucas and Ramires doesn't inspire me at all. But I'm looking forward to seeing Neymar in action, and it's good to see Pato finally playing for them. Obviously they will beat Venezuela.

    In the Colombia Costa Rica match I have to give it a few minutes to see if Colombia look like they can create any chances from their midfield which I believe has been an issue. If they do look like it then their 1/3 might be a good bet against an under 22 Costa Rica.

    Paraguay are a decent team but don't score a lot, neither do Ecuador who are worse. Uruguay should beat Peru, and Chile (who are good) will beat a suspension ravaged U-22 Mexico side.

    I don't see any upsets in the 1st 4 days of matches, but then I'm basing some of this this on secondary analysis at this stage.

    I'll throw up my bets as I make them anyway.

    #2
    Lay Mexico in any way possible at every opportunity. Their price will be out of whack given their reputation, Gold Cup win and fact that this team is essentially an U23 / 'B' side.
    "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

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      #3
      Will be smashing the unders in alot of Paraguays games. They dont score enough and are defensively solid.

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        #4
        Fancy that Argentina are going to walk away with this. Brazil obviously the big dangers, I like the Chile side too.

        Venezuela are a tough side, don't underestimate them. They are well capable of holding big teams.

        Have to agree with Lloyd about the Mexicans after looking at their squad. I watch a lot of South American football particularly the Copa Libertadores and the Mexican teams have been pretty strong in that tournament since they entered it. I would know most of the players and I don't recognise a lot of the names in that Mexico squad.
        'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

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          #5
          Originally posted by shano_88 View Post
          Will be smashing the unders in alot of Paraguays games. They dont score enough and are defensively solid.
          This isn't the World Cup Shane. There are a lot of weaker defenses in this competition. I haven't looked at the Paraguay squad but they have some very decent players if their top players are there. Check out their results in World Cup qualifying they were pretty handy.
          'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

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            #6
            Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post
            Lay Mexico in any way possible at every opportunity. Their price will be out of whack given their reputation, Gold Cup win and fact that this team is essentially an U23 / 'B' side.
            Yep this, plus 8 of them where sent home for some sort of dodgy dealings with prostitutes.

            Got some great value in the top goalscorer market that I posted in the bbv earlier in the week . Pato 20/1 Cavani 20/1 and Suazo 33/1. All shorter now. Hoping messi doesn't run riot tonight.
            Profit before people.

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              #7
              Originally posted by eagle eye View Post
              This isn't the World Cup Shane. There are a lot of weaker defenses in this competition. I haven't looked at the Paraguay squad but they have some very decent players if their top players are there. Check out their results in World Cup qualifying they were pretty handy.
              There in a group with Brazil, Venezuela and Ecuador and ill prob take the under 2 goals in all 3 match's. I know they have a descent side but there main strength is there work ethic and organisation.

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                #8
                Heard argentina are worth the farm tonite -2 @ 5/6....
                "the impossible is often untried"

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                  #9
                  Originally posted by shano_88 View Post
                  There in a group with Brazil, Venezuela and Ecuador and ill prob take the under 2 goals in all 3 match's. I know they have a descent side but there main strength is there work ethic and organisation.
                  Just checked the Ecuador squad. Gutted that my binkie Geovanny Nazareno is not in it. Guy is one of the fastest full backs I've ever seen. A good defender too.
                  'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

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                    #10
                    Missed out by a minute at kick off in betting the 1st goal after 18mins @ 5/6. Seemed decent for the start of a tournament in which there's enormous pressure on the Argies to do well.

                    edit: that corner spread bet looking good.

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                      #11
                      The corners bet is looking real good already.
                      'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

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                        #12
                        Just took over 5 corners in the 2nd half @ 11/10.

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                          #13
                          Originally posted by hotspur View Post
                          Just took over 5 corners in the 2nd half @ 11/10.
                          Where did you get that?
                          'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

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                            #14
                            Originally posted by eagle eye View Post
                            Where did you get that?
                            Paddypower

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                              #15
                              LOL if Carlsburg did first half corners...
                              Profit before people.

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                                #16
                                Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                LOL if Carlsburg did first half corners...
                                Jesus The Situation must have bribed them with that last one.

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                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by hotspur View Post
                                  Paddypower
                                  Thought this would be gone at half-time but still there. On as well now. I think it might be gone now though after my bet.
                                  'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

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                                    #18
                                    ugh I'm having an awful, somehow I manged to back under 5 instead of over 5 corners.
                                    'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

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                                      #19
                                      DNB on Bolivia 3.5 for a bit of interest

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                                        #20
                                        Uruguay ftw.
                                        X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
                                        Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

                                        $ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $

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                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Sometime Happy Dude View Post
                                          Uruguay ftw.
                                          I'm on this aswell.
                                          We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then is not an act, but a habit.

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                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by dannydiamond View Post
                                            I'm on this aswell.
                                            ul so. I am a massive betting cooler.
                                            X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
                                            Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

                                            $ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by theduster View Post
                                              Heard argentina are worth the farm tonite -2 @ 5/6....
                                              i heard wrong... first and last venture into copa america football for me...!!
                                              "the impossible is often untried"

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                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Sometime Happy Dude View Post
                                                Uruguay ftw.
                                                They're def still the value in the outright matket imo. Was intending on laying off my 14/1 antipost bet on them come the semi final but the more I look at it the more I like them. Wouldn't turn people off Chile either.

                                                Argies were far from impressive last night. Looked awful at the back whenever Bolivia pressed. System didn't really work too well either, they'll probably need more flair in midfield which would be at the expense of a defensive midfielder which will expose the defense even more.

                                                Brazil look a good outfit on paper but I just see them possibly struggling in a physical battle later in the comp. Like Ramires, Ganso, Robinho, Pato and Neymar are all ridic lightweight, they'd make a convincing trocaire advertisement. You look at successful Brazil teams of old, the likes of Ronaldo/Rivaldo/Romario all had a physical presence as well as being supremely talented.
                                                Profit before people.

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                                                  #25
                                                  Cavani still 20/1 with Hills top scorer. Waaay too big especially considering Argentina and Columbia have played one of their easier games and Messi/Tevez/Falcao didn't score, three leading contenders for the prize.

                                                  Pato has been slashed into 10's. Hoping he bags a couple tonight.
                                                  Profit before people.

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                                                    #26
                                                    Am on Uruguay aswell with an Argentina win leaving me breakeven.

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                                                      #27
                                                      /subscribes

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                                                        #28
                                                        Cliffs of disappearing post:

                                                        All Peru's 'stars' are injured- Farfan, Pizzaro and Vargas. Fairly useless even with these players so shoud be awful without. Uruguay ftw at 1.5.

                                                        Overs in above game @ 2.2

                                                        Chile @ 4/6.

                                                        Hopefully we'll finally see some good football tonight.
                                                        Profit before people.

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                                                          #29
                                                          I was hoping you would be raving about the price of Chile when I seen you posted here. I can't believe how big they are and I'm going on them big time tonight. That Mexican squad doesn't look good at all and I think Chile will beat them handy. I'm tempted to back over 3.5 goals in that game.
                                                          'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

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                                                            #30
                                                            Phew. A nervous last few mins but thankfully Chile came out on top. I backed them in running at 8/13 on boyles and then almost right after mexico scored. i thought about putting more on Chile at 15/8 due to the fact they were all over mexico in the first half hour but left it.
                                                            An interesting thing i noticed throughout the match was the betting in running on boyles was always better odds then paddy. I think for the remainder of the tourney i will b putting all my bets on with boyles which is a first.
                                                            I have back the Argies heavily from the start and still fancy them however i feel uruguay are a great value bet

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                                                              #31
                                                              Argies surprisingly only make one change tonight, replacing Rojo with Zabeletta at left full, should sure up the defense a little but at the same time take away from the attacking threat Rojo offered in the opener. I'd have definitely started Aguero ahead of Tevez who was uncharacteristically low on work rate and effectivness against Bolivia, wheras Kun looked exceptionally sharp when he came on. I do agree with leaving Lavezzi ahead of Di Maria as he can be trusted more imo to do the dog work of pressing high/ tracking back. He also got himself into great positions, albeit being quite wasteful, you'd prefer that over players who don't get into those game changing positions as often.

                                                              Midfield is the problem though, and it's pretty much a similar problem for all teams in the comp bar Chile. Most teams opting for negative destroyer heavy midfields over players with creative abilities which makes for poor viewing. Sad to see this modern European style tactics coming into SA and the "we'll score more goals than you" attidude seems a thing of the past. It's understandable for teams with limited abilites to employ such tactics but imo it seems counter productive to Argentina(in this comp) when all your talent is up front, the objective should be to get the ball to them as much as possible, and fancying yourself to outscore the inferior opposition. Replacing either Masch or Cambiasso with Pastore in a more attacking midfield role with Banega sitting deeper would increase there chances of winning the title imo.

                                                              Considering the Argentina lay tonight at about 1.4, although Columbia struggled to a victory against a young Costa Rica team with 10 men for the majority of the game doesn't fill me with confidence. Hmmm
                                                              Profit before people.

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                                                                #32
                                                                Very simplistic, but Argentina have Messi in their ranks.

                                                                Can't appose them.

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                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by applehunter View Post
                                                                  Very simplistic, but Argentina have Messi in their ranks.

                                                                  Can't appose them.
                                                                  Yeah but Argentina Messi and Barca Messi are two different players. Not nearly as effective without the supply line of Xavi/Iniesta/Alves. Like he's only scored 7 goals in competitive games for Argentina since 05, compare that to 12 goals in one champions league campaign this season.

                                                                  Laying him to score might be the value of the night actually, especially if like against Boliva they push him back to midfield in the second half which obv lessens his chances of scoring.

                                                                  While on the anytime market, Mario Yepes is too big at 35's with PP. May be a poor defender, but the guy is a beast at getting on the end of set piece
                                                                  deliveries. Should be about 18/1-20/1 imo.
                                                                  Profit before people.

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    Messi

                                                                    Messi at 4/1 with boyles is too good to turn down. although i must agree dat argentina mess and barca messi are very different players. the man is still an absloute talent and @4/1 there is too much value i jus have to back him

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                                                                      #35
                                                                      No change in the midfield tonight for Argentina. The way I seen the game the other night was a lack of movement in midfield was the problem and Cambiasso playing out of position in a more forward role. For me bringing in Pastore and dropping Cambiasso back beside Mascherano would solve that problem but they are sticking with Banega who really is lost in that team imo.

                                                                      I think I'll lay Argentina from the start and watch how things unfold over the first twenty minutes and hope they haven't score by then. There is a real possibly that Colombia could win the midfield battle. They are only playing the one up front(Falcao) and clearly are setting up for the draw.
                                                                      'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

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                                                                        #36
                                                                        Stand out match of the group stages tonight. Really looking forward to this one. Finding it difficult to split them and can't see any value in the match winner betting market. Like the overs at 2.2 a lot though.
                                                                        Profit before people.

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                                                                          #37
                                                                          Id make Chile favourites

                                                                          but my Copa bets should come with a disclaimer
                                                                          GAA News Website

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                                                                            #38
                                                                            Columbia -1 at 15/8 later. This Bolivia team are the weakest in the comp imo.

                                                                            A win will leave Columbia as group toppers facing one of the 3rd place teams in the quarters. Can't see how their current BF price (20's) won't shorten considerably tonight. Won't be an easier trading opportunity all tournament.
                                                                            Last edited by The Situation; 10-07-11, 07:07.
                                                                            Profit before people.

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                                                                              #39
                                                                              Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                              Columbia -1 at 15/8 later. This Bolivia team are the weakest in the comp imo.

                                                                              A win will leave Columbia as group toppers facing one of the 3rd place teams in the quarters. Can't see how their current BF price (20's) won't shorten considerably tonight. Won't be an easier trading opportunity all tournament.
                                                                              Profit before people.

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                                                                                #40
                                                                                Unders trading at 2.34 for tonights Argentina v Costa Rica game- yes please. This Costa Rica have been a surprisingly well organised unit. Columbia found them really tough to break down even though CR had ten men for the majority of the game. Clean sheet against Bolivia last time. Argentina haven't exactly been banging them in either and the pressure from media/fans is huge which will make it tougher to perform. I see them winning but think it will be tighter than expected.

                                                                                Word is that they're making several changes up front. Not confirmed but source has been accurate all comp. Tevez, Lavezzi, banega, cambiasso all out with Gago, Di Maria, Higuain, and Aguero coming in. This means Messi will push back into a midfield creator role like he has been doing in the second halves of the first two games. I'm waiting for official confirmation of teams but if this is the case he's again a big lay in the anytime goalscorers market where he seems to be perenially odds on despite it being almost 2 1/2 years since his last goal in a competitive game for his country. His body language was unusually negative in the last game, looked deeply frustrated and it was clearly affecting his game.

                                                                                On a similar note Dani Alves has been shocking for Brazil, funny seeing these Barca superstars really struggling badly for their countries, yet Spain seem to be doing alright. I've never been in any doubt that Xaviesta are the real heart and soul of that Barca side, their importance to Barca is far greater than the multi world player of the year.
                                                                                Last edited by The Situation; 11-07-11, 09:28.
                                                                                Profit before people.

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  have any transfer fee figures been mentioned for falcao?

                                                                                  any word if he is chelsea bound?

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                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    Originally posted by CheckRaise View Post
                                                                                    have any transfer fee figures been mentioned for falcao?

                                                                                    any word if he is chelsea bound?
                                                                                    Remember hearing his release clause gets activated @ €25m or thereabouts. Could be BS though.

                                                                                    EDIT: Googled it: http://www.skysports.com/story/0,195...037078,00.html

                                                                                    SPOILER
                                                                                    Porto's prolific Colombia international striker Falcao has agreed to extend his contract by two seasons until 2015.

                                                                                    Premier League outfit Chelsea have been heavily linked with the 25-year-old marksman following their appointment of ex-Porto boss Andre Villas-Boas over the summer.

                                                                                    Falcao's previous deal had a €30million (£26.2m) release clause attached, however, that has now been increased to €45m (£39.4m).

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                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      what do you think he is worth?

                                                                                      would he fit with torres and adapt to the premier league?

                                                                                      it would be terrible to see someone of kalous quality be the fifth choice of a billionaires play thing.

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                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        Sick good night for my outright bets last night. Uruguay into 2/1 to win, greened up a fair bit but left some on for interest.

                                                                                        Pato also into 3/1 for top scorer but I'm gonna let that one ride. Gonna miss Messi anytime goalscorer lays now the Argies are out.

                                                                                        Chile 1.75 tonight ftw. They topped group C that contained last nights two winners Peru and Uruguay. Also had the chance to rest their better players in their final group game so should be the fresher.
                                                                                        Profit before people.

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                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Tournament of the Big Heart thus far. Veneuzela can be had at 5/2 to slay Chile and progress.
                                                                                          "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

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                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                                            Sick good night for my outright bets last night. Uruguay into 2/1 to win, greened up a fair bit but left some on for interest.
                                                                                            Did the same, think they'll get by Peru no bother but cant see them being too much shorter than 2/1 if its a Brazil - Uruguay final.

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                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              Brazil/Chile double tonight any valooooo

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                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                Originally posted by bohsman View Post
                                                                                                Did the same, think they'll get by Peru no bother but cant see them being too much shorter than 2/1 if its a Brazil - Uruguay final.
                                                                                                Yeah right time to get off for sure. Peru won't roll over easily in Semi's, and Uruguay may be a little mentally exhausted after that game against their closest rivals last night too. Forlan a bit below par, Cavani injured and Perez suspended could be telling.

                                                                                                Originally posted by The Hurricane View Post
                                                                                                Brazil/Chile double tonight any valooooo
                                                                                                Can't bring myself to be a Brazil backer at prices so far in this comp. Hoping they go through though as it would make for a great semi final.
                                                                                                Profit before people.

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                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  Ship, markets going nuts at the mo, managed to lay more Uruguay at 2.5.

                                                                                                  wow, even better, layed at 2.5 and backed at 3.5.

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                                                                                                    #50
                                                                                                    Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post
                                                                                                    Tournament of the Big Heart thus far. Veneuzela can be had at 5/2 to slay Chile and progress.
                                                                                                    Loving Venezuela, their performance against Ecuador was the highlight of the group stages for me.

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                                                                                                      #51
                                                                                                      Chile starting to turn it on. How they haven't scored yet is beyond me.
                                                                                                      Profit before people.

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                                                                                                        #52
                                                                                                        Its the way its been throughout the quarters, heroic last ditch defending and goalkeeping ftw. Did take some of Chile at 6.2 tho, the whole trading lark is addictive, should really leave it alone and take my profit at this stage.

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                                                                                                          #53
                                                                                                          Originally posted by bohsman View Post
                                                                                                          Loving Venezuela, their performance against Ecuador was the highlight of the group stages for me.
                                                                                                          They've been brilliant. Rode their luck tonight, and played out the last few minutes in the worst possible fashion - making epically bad decisions with the ball in Chile's half. But they are a resolute bunch and it clearly means the world to them.

                                                                                                          Bad tournament to be backing favourites.
                                                                                                          "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

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                                                                                                            #54
                                                                                                            Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post
                                                                                                            Bad tournament to be backing favourites.
                                                                                                            its like the biggest reverso tournament ever
                                                                                                            GAA News Website

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                                                                                                              #55
                                                                                                              Hoping Uruguay win tonight but 5.7 about Peru is far too big a price to ignore. Don't think Uruguay have done anything special all tournament, fairly well organised but flair players have under performed imo. Peru have only conceeded three goals in last ten games so clearly are extremely tough to break down recently, actually quite impressed with how cleverly they defend. Reminds me of the Greece 04 side who over achieved greatly. Both goalkeepers on either side are canditates for player of the tournament which says a lot. Can't get away from the unders here. Don't see the game being a classic.
                                                                                                              Profit before people.

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                                                                                                                #56
                                                                                                                Will Hills to win on penalties market prices are big ricks. 9/1 Uruguay and 10/1 Paraguay, worth backing both. Considering Paraguay have drawn all their games so far and the price for a draw after 90 mins is 2/1, I can't see them prices lasting long.
                                                                                                                Profit before people.

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                                                                                                                  #57
                                                                                                                  Paraguays penaltys were awesome the other night, if it goes to penaltys I couldn't see any team beating them. Uruguay should do it in normal time though.

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                                                                                                                    #58
                                                                                                                    X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
                                                                                                                    Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

                                                                                                                    $ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      #59
                                                                                                                      Originally posted by bohsman View Post
                                                                                                                      Paraguays penaltys were awesome the other night, if it goes to penaltys I couldn't see any team beating them. Uruguay should do it in normal time though.
                                                                                                                      Well Uruguay didn't miss a penalty against Argies in their shootout or against Ghana last world cup so they're handy enough themselves.

                                                                                                                      Hope Uruguay do it as I've still a bit riding on them from my outright bet but can't get away from those win on penalty prices.
                                                                                                                      Profit before people.

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                        #60
                                                                                                                        Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                                                                        Will Hills to win on penalties market prices are big ricks. 9/1 Uruguay and 10/1 Paraguay, worth backing both. Considering Paraguay have drawn all their games so far and the price for a draw after 90 mins is 2/1, I can't see them prices lasting long.
                                                                                                                        Hardly big ricks, they'd have fucked up if they quoted higher odds than those above but @ 9s and 10s they can hardly be ricks surely?!

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