UKIPT Bubble Question

[Dice75]

Hand for Hand Bubble in UKIPT €330 Game.

17 left - 16 paid.

I am the short stack with 21k - Average is 70k

Blinds 1500/3000/300

Next smallest stack is to my left with c28k.
Two other players c35k

I am UTG & look down at 22.

Not desperate for a min cash of €650 but wouldnt say no either.

Shove or fold ?

Edit - Also player 2 to my left has c250k stack

[ferg]

fold

[Wesley Harms]

Id shove. Id rather a chance at the big score than a min cash.

You've 7 bb, but a bit more fold equity because of the bubble factor

[doke]

It's pretty close. The shove is obviously ok and would be std if it wasn't the bubble. It being the bubble, you have to consider other factors like:
(1) How likely is the shove to get through? The BB is the biggest consideration since he's getting the best price to call, but you also have to consider any big stack fishes who might make loose gambley calls to try to lock up the min cash. If you think there's a good chance the shove gets through, then I'd shove, but if you're almost definitely getting called, then you're obviously flipping at best
(2) How likely it is to be folded round to you in the sb when the other shortie is bb? If very likely this is a reason to pass here as if worst comes to worst you can survive by shoving atc into him (he's the person who should be least likely to call you)

[nicnicnic]

I'd shove, imagine chart would say no

[Wombatman]

Shove.

[Strewelpeter]

This has nothing to do with mincash or winning . This has to be an instafold for me.

Reading the above as there being 5 players over 100K including BB I suppose if you are very lucky and only get called in one spot then you might be 45%.

[AndyFatBastard]

This has nothing to do with mincash or winning . This has to be an instafold for me.

Reading the above as there being 5 players over 100K including BB I suppose if you are very lucky and only get called in one spot then you might be 45%.

What SP said. Easy fold.

[BallymoreChris]

Question for the people saying shove, do you shove if its the a €10k bubble?

I'm there to win the tournament too but I would fold here just because its too likely you'll get knocked out not because its the bubble.

[Raheny Red]

Fold.

[Wombatman]

It\'s pretty close. The shove is obviously ok and would be std if it wasn\'t the bubble. It being the bubble, you have to consider other factors like:
(1) How likely is the shove to get through? The BB is the biggest consideration since he\'s getting the best price to call, but you also have to consider any big stack fishes who might make loose gambley calls to try to lock up the min cash. If you think there\'s a good chance the shove gets through, then I\'d shove, but if you\'re almost definitely getting called, then you\'re obviously flipping at best
(2) How likely it is to be folded round to you in the sb when the other shortie is bb? If very likely this is a reason to pass here as if worst comes to worst you can survive by shoving atc into him (he\'s the person who should be least likely to call you)

On 1 I think we get through more often because it it the bubble. See Chris\'s post above. We are also shoving UTG which looks much stronger than a shove from LP. If the BB wants to call light so be it. Happy to race here as blinds are on their way round.

On 2 most players can call a shove from us here pretty light because it is obv because of our stack we have to do it atc. K high should be enough.

[Daragh999]

I'd shove, imagine chart would say no

This. ICM probably say's fold but i really don't want the blinds to go through me and be left with zero fold equity for my next spot to shove + no one else is in immediate danger of busting. If someone was beyond crippled with 10k or less still in the tournament i would prob fold but as is i shove.

[8611]

One of the lads' exit hands from the WSOP ME years ago. Fold.

[nicnicnic]

One of the lads' exit hands from the WSOP ME years ago. Fold.

if its Dave Murray's hand your thinking of

the only similarity is they both held pocket two's utg

[TheImprover]

I think i would leave it go tbh, what were the stacks like to you're left (you're sb & bb)? would they call you light if and when you were on the btn or co?

[nicnicnic]

This. ICM probably say's fold but i really don't want the blinds to go through me and be left with zero fold equity for my next spot to shove + no one else is in immediate danger of busting. If someone was beyond crippled with 10k or less still in the tournament i would prob fold but as is i shove.

Thats my thinking on it, I just cant let the blinds through me here and I'm shoving ATC in this spot actually.

[Flushdraw]

if its Dave Murray's hand your thinking of

the only similarity is they both held pocket two's utg

Yeah that wasn't even the bubble. Think he had 150k or so locked up and was a couple of spots off a 100k pay jump and afair he had >20BB or so when he shipped

[Dice75]

Fwiw, I shoved.

Reason -

I figured if i got it through the big stack two to my left, all the stacks after him cascaded from 80k down to BB's 35k & therefore each stack had one to his left which was dangerous so I'd have to walk into a big hand to be called.
All the other big stacks were at the other table.

Also the stacks first & third after the big stack were quite active & going to open a lot once the big stack folded any hand. Finally, even if one of them didnt open there was a Lithuanian two to my right who was on 40k who was shoving all day long into the two short stacks if pots coming up were folded to him (unlikely) & time was not on my side to gamble on picking up a calling hand or finding a spot with a marginal hand in the next Orbit after the blinds passed again.

Anyway, big stack woke up with 10s.

[nicnicnic]

Yeah that wasn't even the bubble. Think he had 150k or so locked up and was a couple of spots off a 100k pay jump and afair he had >20BB or so when he shipped

22 bigs on a $125,000 jump if I remember correctly, but I'm old so....

edit yep I'm old , 2 off 80k jump

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/event.php?a=r&n=15849

1/4 mill for 45th that year nice

[TheImprover]

Well it sounds like it would have been difficult to pick a better spot so with the stacks and active players to you're left so with this info i probably would shove, ul to walk into a hand, always horrible to go out on the bubble, vul

[Flushdraw]

22 bigs on a $125,000 jump if I remember correctly, but I'm old so....

I just remembered it from the time when him and RooneyDives used to be always going at each other!

Looks like 3 places off an $83k jump

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/event.php?a=r&n=15849

[nicnicnic]

I just remembered it from the time when him and RooneyDives used to be always going at each other!

Looks like 3 places off an $83k jump

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/event.php?a=r&n=15849

see edit above :-), yeah i remember a fun thread on the hand at the time in the old place

[Gowl]

Initially I thought this was a pretty easy fold utg, but now I'm not sure.

17 left, is an 8 and a 9 handed table? or a 6, 6 and 5? If it's short handed, it's def a shove.

If 8 or 9 handed, I think a fold is okay. Even if the blinds go through you, you still have a folding-equity inducing stack. Tbh, I'd nearly say, 8 handed - shove, 9 handed - fold.

Given that it's the bubble, I think a fold is fine. If the money doesn't concern you at all, it's not even that much of a +EV shove (if even +EV at all), so if you're like most, and 'don't direly need the 650 to pay the rent, but it still wouldn't go astray', I'd say fold.

[Trygan]

i was sitting on your right side ... i think i fold there
ur image was tight ... u would have in good shape to steal from the button or the cutoff


anyways thx for the bubble

[8611]

I think the thread title was something wildly unfair like 'Dave Murray, master or muppet?' with a discussion of whether he should have busted in that spot.

Yes, yes you pedants, he was ITM and the stack sizes were different, but he did have the same holding in the same position and he did open push and el busto. These are similarities you know.

I still foldage.

[Mellor]

Playing for the win doesn't mean playing any pot where you have a case for shoving, it means makign smart shoves where you are likely to get chips in ahead or take up dead money. This hand is neither. Fold and suffer the blinds

[doke]

I'd shove, imagine chart would say no

Charts actually say yes (that is, it's a marginally +cEv shove if people behind call optimally) but taking ICM into account it's probably not +$Ev unless people are calling very sub optimally (that is, way tighter than optimal), which they may be given its the bubble (and live: live players calling ranges tend to be too tight in these spots).

Fact that blinds are about to hit is an argument to shove.

As I said in my first post, I think it boils down to how likely it is to get through, and whether you are likely to get any other spot where you have fold equity.

[Winning!]

Considering the table is relatively short-handed and you have an M=3 I shove here.. From UTG it looks vaguely stronger, and a calling range from late position will rarely be wider than 77/AQ, which we obviously don't run into very often, and means we're still folding out a lot of bigger pairs and marginally strong aces.

Also with blinds about to go through you next hand you will be left next to no fold equity on future shoves so taking a stand here is all the more important.

Also, no I wouldn't shove this on a bubble which had significant implications for my bankroll (1ok or w/e). But here, min-cashing probably wont change hero's situation much, whereas having a stack that could give him a decent shot at winning good money would.