TPTK facing committing Check Raise on River

[LuckyLloyd]

Context:

Playing a €55 Tournament in the Jackpot. Tournament has only attracted 9 runners so we are essentially playing a SNG.

Reads:

Villian in this hand is around 21, arrived wearing a Trinity Hoodie and claims to have finished the last of his yearly exams this morning. I'd reckon he's had a couple of beers over the course of the day, and he has been chattering in an excitable fashion about the HC Final.

The first hand he sat into the table, he minraised UTG (15k starting stacks, he joined at 75 / 150 level) and got four callers, raised an 800 lead from the Big Blind on a 2s3c8s flop to 2.5k, bet another 2.5k when checked to on a 6 turn, and shoved over a 3k donk on a 9 spade draw completing (I think) river. He refused to say what he had after BB had folded. Apart from that he has been active enough, raising and continuation betting a number of times, and doesn't seem your usual live Dublin player - though he has limped in a couple of times.

All he would have seen me do of note is call a raise on the button from his opponent on the above hand with KQ, and pay off a flop and river bet on a KJXXX board to lose a medium sized pot to AK.

Hand:

Villain minraises UTG to 400 (blinds now 100 / 200), folds to me in Hijack and I 3 - bet to 1200 with AKo from a ~ 11k stack. Villain is only caller.

Flop (2700): KQ9 rainbow

Villian checks quickly and I check behind quick enough.

Turn (2700): 7 bringing a spade draw

Villian leads for 1200 and I quickly call

River (5100): 5 missing the Spade draw

Villain checks quick enough again, and I bet 2200 without too much hesitation. He immediately starts fingering chips and then repops to 7500. If I called I'd leave 1075 chips behind.

FWIW, he's looking away from me up at a television above my right shoulder.

Eh, I don't ever fold right?

[Closed_Account]

I would almost never call here. He is pretty lucky that you happen to have AK tbf but when average live punter check raises the river its really never a bluff. I guess an exam ending Trinity genii with a few pints might be inclined to but even not very often imo.

[ikilldurrr1]

Bet flop and probably turn and set up a river shove. Reassess if he plays back at you. You miss value by checking flop. I think he could be bluffing on river because of the way you played it. It does look like you are going for thin value. It's hard for you to have a really strong hand but it is an ugly spot which would not have happened if you bet the flop.

[thechamp87]

Bet flop

Checking the flop is fine. As is calling the turn. When he checks the river I probably b/f smaller, probably 1500-1800 ish. I guess it's a fold now as played but it's hard to know without being in the hand tbh.

[cardshark202]

I don't mind checking back on the flop, or just calling turn and betting river as you did. The fact he's looking away is a bad sign, as I find that's usually a sign of a strong hand.
Really tough spot. With him minraising UTG, you have to think about his range there and what part of that range can make it to the river like this. I would have a real tough time folding because of that, though I would not be happy calling.

[ikilldurrr1]

I think our hand is too strong to check back. No need for pot control and we miss out on some value imo. I would be more inclined to check back if we somehow had a weak king or aq.

[cardshark202]

I think our hand is too strong to check back. No need for pot control and we miss out on some value imo. I would be more inclined to check back if we somehow had a weak king or aq.

You're not getting 3 streets of value very often if at all here in a 3bet pot so checking back the flop is more than fine

[LuckyLloyd]

I think our hand is too strong to check back. No need for pot control and we miss out on some value imo. I would be more inclined to check back if we somehow had a weak king or aq.

From everything he's done so far, he doesn't seem your typical Dublin live player. I can't really see getting three streets full value from KJ in this scenario given preflop action. While we have a strong hand, given board texture it's a very narrow range of hands that we beat which will get 10k in after the flop here imo.

@Sam, Adam: My instinct was to fold thinking I couldn't remember the last time I was check raise bluffed on the river at this level (it was such a rarity when I used to play), but what the fuck does he play for value here? I was tanking for a minute or so wondering what the hell he could be holding for value that he thinks he'll check when I simply call the turn?

[LuckyLloyd]

Basically, am I right in thinking to this action that he has an incredibly nutty hand - i.e. something that beats two pair - or air? If that is correct, I should continue?

[Hectorjelly]

He could have TJ, KK, QQ, 99, 77 or 55.

Checking back the flop is pretty standard, its a bad flop for your hand, hard to get action from a worse hand.

I'd probably call, decent chance he is bluffing. I wouldn't be happy about it though, you don't beat any hands he is value raising. But, given your flop check and weak river bet I don't think you can fold, you have shown too much weakness and he seems the type that might pounce on it.

[Closed_Account]

Basically, am I right in thinking to this action that he has an incredibly nutty hand - i.e. something that beats two pair - or air? If that is correct, I should continue?

I think this is fair enough, along with all two pair combos even weakish ones that he is considering nut like, looking at the hand again I dont know what I would do on the end. I would normally try to fold without giving it too much thought incase I managed to convince myself to call as really a river check raise is never a bluff live but I have no idea how he thinks you can call considering the turn which I guess makes a mindless bluff feasible enough.

[ikilldurrr1]

Ok yeah probably got this one wrong, thinking we would get 3 streets of value. But yeah there's not many hands thinking about it now that he raises utg and calls a 3b oop with to get value from.

Do you think there is any merit to keeping the initiative though and maybe just betting flop and turn?

[thechamp87]

The only things that would lead me to call are the fact that your hand is so underrepped, and if he's competent and thinking then he might put you on AQ/QJ/QT type hands which you'd play similarly I'd assume and try to make you fold.

I haven't played any of those kind of tournaments in years but I think this type of move was generally always nutty. He's raise/called from UTG so he has a decent had I'd assume and I doubt players in the Jackpot are on the level where they can turn a hand that has some showdown value here into a bluff.

I think it's nutty hands far to often here to make this a call but as I said it's very hard to know in live poker without being in the hand.

[LuckyLloyd]

Ok yeah probably got this one wrong, thinking we would get 3 streets of value. But yeah there's not many hands thinking about it now that he raises utg and calls a 3b oop with to get value from.

Do you think there is any merit to keeping the initiative though and maybe just betting flop and turn?

I just believe that if you bet the flop / raise turn the parts of his range you beat fold and the the parts that beat you continue. By calling turn with the intention of value betting river I was hoping for value from AQ / JJ / TT / other non setted pocket pairs / Kx, etc.

All of those may call on the flop if you continuation bet, but they will find a fold on the turn thereafter, and the end result may be that you get a continuation bet off them as opposed to two bets on turn and river. All of this applies moreso to a turn raise imo.

[ikilldurrr1]

I didn't say raise the turn. I think the hand was played fine once you elected to check back flop. I would never raise turn.

[LuckyLloyd]

I didn't say raise the turn. I think the hand was played fine once you elected to check back flop. I would never raise turn.

My apologies, I read "bet turn" and confused it given the way the action played out. Retracted.

[smoothcall]

I don't like folding near the top of my perceived range very often ...

buuut this does look like your beat

[Mellor]

Not a nice spot, pretty much not going to be happy with folding or calling.

I think I fold, he has a min of KQ most of the time, I don't think he CR bluffs the river enough

[LuckyLloyd]

Cheers for the responses lads.

So anyway, my instinct was to fold because I obviously beat nothing played for value in this manner. But because it would be so weird for someone to play something for value in this manner in a Jackpot tournament, I decided it could be a desperation bluff and threw all my chips in.

Villain reached for his cards immediately and I thought 'cool, I'm done' but the dealer put up his hand and reminded him that I had 1075 chips more. Once he started tanking about whether to call that amount or not I reckoned I had guessed right* and retook my seat. Eventually he called reasoning that he couldn't pass when being laid 20 - 1 or something and lost with 44. Ballsy bluff on his part.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Needless to say, a nightmare opponent would be one who has the capability to play

TJ, KK, QQ, 99, 77 or 55

in the same manner as he has played 44 here with any sort of frequency. That he has turned his hand into a bluff in this spot automatically makes him tougher, and it was a horrible spot. But I'd have to think that he would struggle to have even a polarized range in this spot - i.e. he would only ever check raise the river as a desperation bluff the times he senses any lack of strength.

*But like, I'm guessing with all of that really, and it could well be that 8 times out of the 10 he has ever done this it was with a really nutty holding. Shrug!

He did say to me after the hand "I didn't think you were that strong", so the benefits of keeping one's hand underrepped in this context I guess.

[Denny Crane]

Sick value shove

[LuckyLloyd]

Sick value shove

lol

[thechamp87]

As I mentioned earlier I didn't think players in the Jackpot would be capable of turning hands with some showdown value into bluffs in this spot. Pretty nice play by him imo assuming he's done it having thought about what he perceives your range to be, and not just, as you said, desperately bluffing to try and win the pot.

As your hand is so underrepped, I think a decent player can deduce that you can have AQ/JJ/TT etc here which he's obviously behind to but can get you to fold. If he fires the river again, there's a good chance you call, given that you called the turn without much hesitation. I like his c/r provided it was for the reasons I've listed but who knows I guess.

[Moneymaker]

Yeah, it's hugely player dependent on whether we call here or not. Vs your typical live donk I fold this all day, but given your read and how underrepped our hand is we should definitely consider calling.

Does he have a better chance of bluffing you out if he just plain bets the river, rather then a check/raise? C/R looks far more fishy and polarises his range a lot more imo.

[Winning!]

86 would be so sick here lol.. His line is very weird but I guess he expects you to have something if you checked back a flop perfect for cbetting.. I don't see anything wrong with how you played it but I don't think you can call the c/r. It's so strong on that board.