UKIPT sat spot

[Bubbleking]

thoughts on what to do here. 2 tickets worth 550. 3rd and 4th gets 150 each.

UTG is small winner
BTN is a losing player ABI 25. ROI -48 but doesnt appear to be that bad in this format
SB has an ROI of -8% but has over 200k in cashes
My opr would be standard enough (small winner)

No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 15000/30000 Blinds (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t310478)
SB (t337688)
Hero (BB) (t478804)
UTG (t325030)

Hero's M: 10.64

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, J
1 fold, Button bets t307478, 1 fold

Hero?

[thechamp87]

Snap fold.

[tipp86]

Snap fold.

Whats the worst hand you call with? I stared at this hand for 5 minutes and couldnt decide what id do which probably means il fold it at the time.

[thechamp87]

Whats the worst hand you call with? I stared at this hand for 5 minutes and couldnt decide what id do which probably means il fold it at the time.

It's a satellite with 10bbs effective - you want to be shoving, not calling. My range for calling here would be quite tight I think.

[Bubbleking]

It's a satellite with 10bbs effective - you want to be shoving, not calling. My range for calling here would be quite tight I think.

disagree but I'll let this run awhile before I chip in again

[tipp86]

disagree but I'll let this run awhile before I chip in again

My thoughts are similar surely you have to be able to call light in these spots where guys are surely shoving pretty light. Id probably prefer an ace high type hand in this spot to call.

Im not sure been a long time since i played sngs and had to deal with all this.

I probably fold your hand there alright BK.

[smoothcall]

fold, all about fold equity in sats....

[doke]

ICM fold

[Wesley Harms]

From my experience of these this shove is ATC.

Your ahead of his shoving range so I'd probably call.

You could see anything from AA to 67o

I make the call anyway

[tipp86]

From my experience of these this shove is ATC.

Your ahead of his shoving range so I'd probably call.

You could see anything from AA to 67o

I make the call anyway

I wouldnt say ATC is a shoving range here.

Again id put the question to Doke what is the lightest hand you can profitably call with here?

[islander32]

You didnt assign any ranges to villian in ur post which is pretty important here imo.

Against the following range of 22+,A2s+,K7s+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,K9o+,Q9o+,JTo..30% of hands you have 45% equity.
Looks like a fold here on chip ev alone. Taking ICM into consideration as Doke mentioned it's a clear fold.

[Bubbleking]

sigh - always a bad sign when good players are telling you to do the opposite of what I actually done So time to give thoughts on the call;

I had no time to do ICM just raw equity calcs.

Optimal shoving range for the BTN is ATC - im 60% against that range. Even if the BTN is not shoving optimally and is only shoving the top 50% Im still 53% to win the hand.

2 outcomes (disregarding a chop)

1. I win the hand and lock up the ticket
2. I lose and Im still in with a shout to bink although I'll have to run good

This is all that went through my head before I made the call

[Midnitekowby]

ya its tight,but i dont think hes shoving atc, although prob very wide.. think its a chipev call, but icm fold...would call if it was sb who shoved.
Also whilst it would put you in a very healthy spot, you by no means have ticket locked up in this format

[smoothcall]

call KQ sooooooooooooooooooooooty?

[thechamp87]

It's a satellite with 10bbs effective - you want to be shoving, not calling. My range for calling here would be quite tight I think.

disagree but I'll let this run awhile before I chip in again

fold, all about fold equity in sats....

.

[Mellor]

Calling light isn't good. Just because he may be shoving light doesn't mean its good to call. Building a chip stack isn't important now, survival is where the value is

ICM makes this a fold but you don't need to do calcs, its just an ICM principal thing

i snap fold

[The Aul Switcharoo]

Doke and Midnitekowboy say fold so....you obviously called and luckboxed it. Easy game

[Bubbleking]

Doke and Midnitekowboy say fold so....you obviously called and luckboxed it. Easy game

held against 56s. Usually Im on autopilot for this tourney but this one made me stop and think for awhile

[doke]

I wouldnt say ATC is a shoving range here.

Again id put the question to Doke what is the lightest hand you can profitably call with here?

Can't really answer that without doing the math, when I was an stt grinder I used to run these things all the time but I'm well rusty now.

On the ICM, you don't need to do the actual math, just know that you need the call to be a lot more +Cev than merely marginal to make it +$Ev. The bubble factor concept explained in Kill Everyone goes into this. In this case, bubble factor is pretty high as it's a sat and you're near an important bubble and neither desperately short or so big you can take the hit.

In practise I'd call pretty tight here, something like 77+, AT+ and maybe KQ. As others have said, it's much better to be sticking the chips in first in these spots, both from a fold equity and ICM standpoint.

Anyway, well done on the hold, boss

[smoothcall]

disagree but I'll let this run awhile before I chip in again

why

[thechamp87]

disagree but I'll let this run awhile before I chip in again

you'd prefer to be calling it off rather than shoving with fold equity?

[Bubbleking]

why

one of the biggest mistakes Iv been seeing in these tourneys (after the 30k add-on) is that players dont call wide enough. it seems that most players know optimal shoving ranges but cant call profitably imo

[thechamp87]

one of the biggest mistakes Iv been seeing in these tourneys (after the 30k add-on) is that players dont call wide enough. it seems that most players know optimal shoving ranges but cant call profitably imo

but it's been outlined above by multiple people as to why this isn't an optimal or profitable call both from ICM and chip ev perspecitves? with this in mind i'm not really sure how you can continue to argue that?

[Bubbleking]

but it's been outlined above by multiple people as to why this isn't an optimal or profitable call both from ICM and chip ev perspecitves? with this in mind i'm not really sure how you can continue to argue that?

Im not talking about the hand any more just calling in sats in general

[thechamp87]

Im not talking about the hand any more just calling in sats in general

Cool ok, in my experience though and as chub said satties are all about maintaining your stack at a level that will have good fold equity when you shove in the late stages as most bad players tend to tighten up. a general rule in the late stages is just get your chips in first. i'd be folding QJ here every time. I'm not even sure I'd call it off with KQ.

Anyway nice one on the multiple seats, and best of luck in Cork.
Adam

[Mellor]

On the ICM, you don't need to do the actual math, just know that you need the call to be a lot more +Cev than merely marginal to make it +$Ev.

Pretty much this.
You never get to run ICM calcs live, are rarely online.
You have to just wing it on the priniciple, the bigger the bubble the bigger margin over neutral EV you need.

As mentioned, "getting it in first' has a huge value in itself. Situations can occur in sats where a guy could shove ATC, and you are correct to fold AA

[AndyFatBastard]

In a game where everyone is shoving light in LP, calling light in the blinds is the natural adjustment. This probably isn't it, but there has to be a point where you need to start making calls like this.

[Wombatman]

Nash say it be a call from a pure EV standpoint. There was a 3000 ante right?
BK correct to stop and think about calling for sure. Playing style of villian a big factor.

ICM Nash Calculator Results

[Mellor]

Thanks for doing those calcs WBM, but they not say its a fold?

Against an optimum button shove the BB's calling range is "12.7%, 55+ A7s+ A8o+ KJs+", which QJ is just short of. Am I missing something obvious?

[Wombatman]

Thanks for doing those calcs WBM, but they not say its a fold?

Against an optimum button shove the BB\'s calling range is \"12.7%, 55+ A7s+ A8o+ KJs+\", which QJ is just short of. Am I missing something obvious?

Sorry. Was looking at the calling range vs SB.

Still very close though, my point being it is far from a snap fold.

[Mellor]

Yeah, thought it was the SB you were looking at alright.

I'm not 100% sure on this, but I would imagine that the EV in sats drops off more quickly when you call looser than optimum compared to when you call tighter than optimem

[Bubbleking]

I'm not 100% sure on this, but I would imagine that the EV in sats drops off more quickly when you call looser than optimum compared to when you call tighter than optimem

This was actually the point I was getting around to. In this hyper turbo format it is a big mistake to be calling tighter than optimal. I was undecided about calling looser than optimal but its already been pointed out that its a leak