KK turn spot, villain ships, me??

[bustamoves]

this is second level of a €50 freezeout on entraction. i've been very active and been opening alot and winning or folding without showdown.

villain has folded once on a Q72r flop where i lead out with air in a srp and he banked a bit before folding. i sense he's been wanting to get into pots with me because i my image looks a bit loose and aggro.

i have been opening just over 2x all the time so i decide to keep it at that although i am by this point getting called in a few spots. however i figure there is a good chance i will be 3b lightly and i want to keep my opens the same so i stick with 2.2x and this happens...

(also my cbets have been 3/4 so i decide to keep it at 3/4 for balance)

$25/$50 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($3,736)
UTG+1 ($764)
MP1 ($5,495)
bustamoves (MP2) ($3,350)
MP3 ($9,225)
CO ($3,152)
BTN ($2,588)
SB ($2,712)
BB ($2,760)

Pre-Flop: ($75, 9 players) bustamoves is MP2 :kd: :kc:
3 folds, bustamoves raises to $112, MP3 calls $112, CO calls $112, 3 folds

Flop: :6h: :2s: :2d: ($411, 3 players)
bustamoves bets $308, MP3 folds, CO calls $308

Turn: :ah: ($1,027, 2 players)
bustamoves bets $770, CO goes all-in $2,732, bustamoves?

[Emmet]

pretty easy fold.

I bet pre 3x/3.5x
Don't bet turn

fold now

[sligoboi]

While I don't mind the 2.2x and minraises I prefer to hold off until later levels when stacks are shallower before I begin to do it. So pre I make it 150.

Flop: On this board I really hate the bet size. It's so dry that we're very close to never behind. I make a 1/2 pot cbet (at later stages maybe even less because it allows us to stab at orphan pots with air with far less risk).

Turn: Ugh. Horrible card and I either b/f (way less than you bet tbf) or c/c. Betting small and folding to a raise keeps our stack in tact while check/calling allows him to continue with his random flop floats. I think the best line on the river though is to c/f as once we've called the turn most of his hands w/o an ace will check back and we get to showdown cheaply.

[Raheny Red]

While I don't mind the 2.2x and minraises I prefer to hold off until later levels when stacks are shallower before I begin to do it. So pre I make it 150.

This for me also.

[Caf]

I 3x it pre too but obv if you have been opening 2.2x then don't change it now, same as I would 3x every hand.

Vary your Cbets depending on flop texture. 3/4 Cbetting every flop is quite bad tbh. Again you kind of have to keep it 3/4 since you have been doing that. This is a flop that does not require a big Cbet though.

Check the turn. As played b/f. Your bet size is too big here too anyway but I would check it all the time.

[bustamoves]

I 3x it pre too but obv if you have been opening 2.2x then don't change it now, same as I would 3x every hand.

Vary your Cbets depending on flop texture. 3/4 Cbetting every flop is quite bad tbh. Again you kind of have to keep it 3/4 since you have been doing that. This is a flop that does not require a big Cbet though.

Check the turn. As played b/f. Your bet size is too big here too anyway but I would check it all the time.

my thinking re:betsizing was along the lines that i felt very likely that i would get one bet called on a flop like this since its so dry and i am likely to be betting 100% my range on it. i figured alot of small-medium PPs would def call one bet and i may as well make it big.

as for the turn bet i agree- size is horrible but again i was actually betting for 'value' and hoping he would get stubborn with a pair (thinking i was full of it) but was preparing to fold if he shipped. i also thought small + medium pairs were the most likely hands i was beating that were calling my flop bet than Ax. When he shipped i still thought it was odd that he would ship with Ax hands since i had blockers to AK and why wouldn't he let me continue my bluffs if he did have Ax and he folds out all my medium strength hands. That's the bit that confused me.

so i guess i am asking, given my image does anybody agree that betting bigger is better on the flop, at least. and lastly, what range are you guys putting him on now that he ships this turn??

[Emmet]

all those hands you are betting turn to get value from will call a river bet if you check turn.

Betting turn oop means that when you check river, which you're going to have to if he calls turn, you have no clue what his hand is if he shoves.

if you figure you can get two streets of value, the flop and river might be the best two, especially considering the turn card!

[sligoboi]

Re: his range on on turn: Ax and the very occasional FH. (unless you've double barrell folded before in which case the Ace is a great turn for him to rep)

In a vacuum we're never good given the action.

[Caf]

so i guess i am asking, given my image does anybody agree that betting bigger is better on the flop, at least.

No, there is no need to bet this big on this flop. By betting smaller you get value from a lot worse hands.

Your turn bet is strong, not weak, which makes his shove even stronger imo(even though I think I would be checking back 100% of my holdings here). You are turning KK, a monster hand, into a bluff. Tbh I can't understand how you think this sizing can be justified but if it works for you then go for it. I've seen big winning players with crazy bet sizes so if they can make it work then there is nothing to say you can't. I tend to keep pots smaller, especially oop.

[TommyGunne]

I like your line if you folded.

[bustamoves]

No, there is no need to bet this big on this flop. By betting smaller you get value from a lot worse hands.

Your turn bet is strong, not weak, which makes his shove even stronger imo(even though I think I would be checking back 100% of my holdings here). You are turning KK, a monster hand, into a bluff. Tbh I can't understand how you think this sizing can be justified but if it works for you then go for it. I've seen big winning players with crazy bet sizes so if they can make it work then there is nothing to say you can't. I tend to keep pots smaller, especially oop.

ha i knew this would come up. i am only turning it into a bluff if i put him on weak A surely?? now but as i said i am assuming his flop calling range has way more pairs than Ax (weak Ax will almost def fold flop i would imagine aswell) in it? would you agree or no? that's what's important caf, dont u think? just curious.



(fwiw, as for betting the turn itself i am not saying it is good and secondly the bet size its not good)

edit: sorry just saw TGunnes as i posted. yes i did fold fwiw

[Caf]

ha i knew this would come up. i am only turning it into a bluff if i put him on weak A surely?? now but as i said i am assuming his flop calling range has way more pairs than Ax (weak Ax will almost def fold flop i would imagine aswell) in it? would you agree or no? that's what's important caf, dont u think? just curious.

His calling range should be(as in what my calling range would be) quads, full houses, smaller pocket pairs on the flop. But I do agree that Ax hands aren't as much in his range, which strongly moves me towards his range being a FH or quads and since you bet the ace, villain may think you are committed to calling and that he is getting his double up. Ax is in his range too though as this is the card he is shoving!

I guess a some people will float Ax, Kx and maybe Qx a bit if they think they can get you off it on a later street. But I wouldn't be floating this flop with anything since your bet is so big, hence why I would bet smaller to allow people to float with worse hands than calling with pocket pairs.

If this doesn't make sense I'll come back to it later as busy atm.

[bustamoves]

His calling range should be(as in what my calling range would be) quads, full houses, smaller pocket pairs on the flop. But I do agree that Ax hands aren't as much in his range, which strongly moves me towards his range being a FH or quads and since you bet the ace, villain may think you are committed to calling and that he is getting his double up. Ax is in his range too though as this is the card he is shoving!

I guess a some people will float Ax, Kx and maybe Qx a bit if they think they can get you off it on a later street. But I wouldn't be floating this flop with anything since your bet is so big, hence why I would bet smaller to allow people to float with worse hands than calling with pocket pairs.

If this doesn't make sense I'll come back to it later as busy atm.

well, i just think you dont understand my line (again i hope i am not coming across aggressive/defensive-its not my intention) if you seriously say i am turning my hand into a bluff specifically because i bet the A when it comes up. As i make the bet i am always fully aware that he's never folding FH/quads, trips and Ax but that is not the part of his range i am trying to get value from.

the only good argument for not betting the turn here as i see it is that i am mostly only getting called by the part of his range that has me beat. betting when we are only getting called when we are beat would be a bluff if it meant it was our only hoping of winning the hand surely. in this case we can safely assume we are still ahead alot of the time and although it may not be the 'optimal line' in terms of getting value from worse i cant see how this is a case of turning our hand into a bluff.

there is a subtlety that i may not be getting across but maybe someone else can add/improve (or debunk for that matter).

[Caf]

What hand do we beat that calls our turn bet?

I like your line if you folded.

^^^^Your line must not be as bad as I think.

[sligoboi]

the only good argument for not betting the turn here as i see it is that i am mostly only getting called by the part of his range that has me beat. betting when we are only getting called when we are beat would be a bluff if it meant it was our only hoping of winning the hand surely. in this case we can safely assume we are still ahead alot of the time and although it may not be the 'optimal line' in terms of getting value from worse i cant see how this is a case of turning our hand into a bluff.

Like I said above I don't mind the turn bet as long as fold to the shove. The problem is the ace hits our range more than it hits our opponents and as such it can be seen as an action killer. This means that we most likely only get called here when we're in bad shape.

[bustamoves]

What hand do we beat that calls our turn bet?



^^^^Your line must not be as bad as I think.

admittedly there are not many but...

given the dynamic that i spoke about i figured there was a chance he could get stubborn with small-medium PPs.

secondly if i bet i find out pretty quickly if he has me beat as opposed to ck/calling turn and river (this went thru my head). bet sizing was debatable for sure and if i was to play the hand again i'm not sure i would have bet the turn.

in a vacuum i think cking turn>betting the the turn but i really think i have to consider how people will react to the image i have projected and vary bet sizes and my line accordingly.

(i am not saying i am right in this instance btw, just still trying to form a game that i am confident is going to get results)

[Caf]

admittedly there are not many but...

given the dynamic that i spoke about i figured there was a chance he could get stubborn with small-medium PPs.

secondly if i bet i find out pretty quickly if he has me beat as opposed to ck/calling turn and river (this went thru my head). bet sizing was debatable for sure and if i was to play the hand again i'm not sure i would have bet the turn.

in a vacuum i think cking turn>betting the the turn but i really think i have to consider how people will react to the image i have projected and vary bet sizes and my line accordingly.

(i am not saying i am right in this instance btw, just still trying to form a game that i am confident is going to get results)

Nail hit firmly on the head here:

all those hands you are betting turn to get value from will call a river bet if you check turn.

Betting turn oop means that when you check river, which you're going to have to if he calls turn, you have no clue what his hand is if he shoves.

if you figure you can get two streets of value, the flop and river might be the best two, especially considering the turn card!

Maybe I don't really understand the dynamic you speak of but I would 100% of the time check back 100% of my range and Emmet sums it up perfectly and a lot better than I can/could.

If TG plays the hand the same as you then maybe he can shed further light on why he would? And also to put forward a better point than the one of Emmets I have quoted.

[bustamoves]

Nail hit firmly on the head here:


Maybe I don't really understand the dynamic you speak of but I would 100% of the time check back 100% of my range and Emmet sums it up perfectly and a lot better than I can/could.

If TG plays the hand the same as you then maybe he can shed further light on why he would? And also to put forward a better point than the one of Emmets I have quoted.

as i said in a vacuum i think checking this turn is better but because of my perceived image i'm not convinced that the two best streets to get value from are flop and river. the A is the perfect card to rep and if i bet it i figure i am more likely to get called by a thinking player than if i check it and bet river.

if i was playing a little more standard ABC tag style against an unknown i figure the best way would be to check the turn and bet river but i do think my image makes a difference now.

as for Emmet's suggestion that if we bet turn and he calls we are faced with a tough spot on the river not knowing where we are if he shoves. well i've heard this point put forward so many times about trying to avoid being put to tough decisions on river that it kinda irritates me. i am not saying that someone should go out of their way to get in tough spots or anything but like thats poker (and partly why poker rocks and why i love the game)

if he bets river his range is Aces and, nuts or near nuts and very rarely a double float with air (and so little FE given whats left of my stack for his river shove) so in this instance i would consider it very easy ck/ fold.

As for Tommy Gunne's agreeing with me and why he likes my line i have no idea but i wouldnt mind hearing needless to say. (i'm probably way off the mark and its just a happy coincidence)

p.s. caf, off to read your PM now. genuinely cant wait coz i see it's long so u must have answered my question

p.s. how dfck do i get rid of the stupid wink icon at the top. dunno how that got there

[Mellor]

p.s. how dfck do i get rid of the stupid wink icon at the top. dunno how that got there

There's 14 icon buttons under the post reply page

edit: just checked, edit, go advanced gets rid of it

[Caf]

as i said in a vacuum i think checking this turn is better but because of my perceived image i'm not convinced that the two best streets to get value from are flop and river. the A is the perfect card to rep and if i bet it i figure i am more likely to get called by a thinking player than if i check it and bet river.

if i was playing a little more standard ABC tag style against an unknown i figure the best way would be to check the turn and bet river but i do think my image makes a difference now.

as for Emmet's suggestion that if we bet turn and he calls we are faced with a tough spot on the river not knowing where we are if he shoves. well i've heard this point put forward so many times about trying to avoid being put to tough decisions on river that it kinda irritates me. i am not saying that someone should go out of their way to get in tough spots or anything but like thats poker (and partly why poker rocks and why i love the game)

if he bets river his range is Aces and, nuts or near nuts and very rarely a double float with air (and so little FE given whats left of my stack for his river shove) so in this instance i would consider it very easy ck/ fold.

As for Tommy Gunne's agreeing with me and why he likes my line i have no idea but i wouldnt mind hearing needless to say. (i'm probably way off the mark and its just a happy coincidence)

p.s. caf, off to read your PM now. genuinely cant wait coz i see it's long so u must have answered my question

p.s. how dfck do i get rid of the stupid wink icon at the top. dunno how that got there

This post is quality, and I mean that in a good way. Not only did it make me think, it made me laugh too.

I'm starting to see your point about betting the turn now(but I'm also seeing daylight through the window so it's leaba time for me).

Btw, thinking about it more, if you are playing aggro at this stage then I prefer your pf bet sizing to what I would make it.

[AndyFatBastard]

Bet/folding turn or checking and looking for thin value on the river are both fine. Which to do is really a question of style and game dynamics. I'd bet because there's value to be had from backdoor hearts and medium pairs. It's a really easy fold now that you're here.