Classics 2011

[kincsem]

I like to do an accumulator on the English Classics.
€86 for these two bets.

[kincsem]

2000 Guineas

Back .................... Odds ..... Stake ....... Profit
Roderic OConnor ..... 11 ....... €30.00 ...... €300.00
Casamento ............. 29.55 .... €86.36 .....€2,465.74

[BabyHawk]

No after-timing here then!

WP

[The Situation]

Very much on the Frankel bandwagon myself, really original selection I know. Was pretty flabergasted by people who were dissappointed/critical of his previous run. Got him at 1.68 last week.

[applehunter]

Frankel has 3 Group 1 winners to beat.

Would much prefer to have the field against him.

Saying that it is only a race to watch.

[NewApproach]

I've a small ew bet on Saamid without Frankel, happy to leave it at that as I don't think there is much value left. Pathfork was great value throughout the winter but is short enough now. Hopefully Frankel sluices in.

[japeye]

i have a few quid ew on roc for interest, it should be all about frankel.

[Wesley Harms]

Fury is gonna smash this. I'm a big William Haggas fan, had a winner already today so string in form.

Can't see it out of the 3

[The Situation]

Pace is my only worry here and Frankels proximity to the probable pacemaker. Once it isn't a repeat of the Dubai world cup type race were Queally ran a poor tactical race he should be safe as houses

[The C Kid]

Frankel could win with me and my missus on board.

[Charlie Sheen]

Going to take on Frankel with Casamento e/w @ 12/1, should reverse the places with Pathfork over a mile, whether that will be good enough win I'm not sure.

[Wesley Harms]

In again on Fury lol

[Starvin Marvin]

Wow, fast at running imo.

[The C Kid]

That was ridiculous.

Whhhhhhhhhhhhhoooooooooooooooooooooooooosssssssssh hhhhhhhhhhh

[Wesley Harms]

Wow awesome

[The Situation]

That's one way of doing it

Class act

[japeye]

he is the real deal, wow that was special.

[Charlie Sheen]

That stopped any sort of tactical race.

[NewApproach]

That was absolutely sensational. Can't believe what I just saw.

[NewApproach]

What was the biggest he was in running does anyone know?

[The Situation]

What was the biggest he was in running does anyone know?

Saw 1.35 just after they broke on Betdaq. Don't think he went any bigger.

[kincsem]

Frankel's performance in a 2000 Guineas was probably the best since Tudor Minstrel won by eight lengths in 1947.

I have put €40 at 32 on Maqaasid in the 1000 Guineas.

Low draw numbers fared best in the 2000 Guineas (even ignoring Frankel 1st drawn 1) probably because there was a headwind / wind from the left that gave horses drawn low away from the stands cover. (high numbers are stand side)

A similar breeze tomorrow of about 15 knots. I'm not sure if this is significant.
Drawn low tomorrow are:
1 Memory - 18th (dwelt in stalls and lost 10 lengths at start)
2 Misty For Me - 11th
3 Maqaasid - 3rd
4 Together - 2nd
5 Havant - 6th

Edited to put in finishing positions.

[The Situation]

1000 is obv faaar easier then the 2000 to figure out


Blue Bunting ew @ 33's with ladbrokes is the value here. Really progressive filly imo.

[The Situation]

1000 is obv faaar easier then the 2000 to figure out


Blue Bunting ew @ 33's with ladbrokes is the value here. Really progressive filly imo.

Ping

Don't think I'll back both Guineas winners in one year ever again.

[kincsem]

I posted this on Betfair yesterday.

01 May 11 00:38

The Morning Line

If you were watching this morning Frankie Dettori said there was a strong wind from the stand side.
I'm not sure of this but I think he said stall 1 used to be on the stand side but now they have changed it so that stall 1 is on the far side.
He said horses drawn low today were at an advantage as they would have cover from the wind.

Finish___Stall___Comments
1___1___Soon clear and led
2___5___Held up towards rear
3___11__Held up off the pace
4___6___Off pace in midfield
5___4___Off pace in midfield
6___7___Behind
7___2___Prominent
8___13___Chased winner
9___8___Held up
10___10___Chased winner (Frankie)
11___3___Prominent
12___9___Always in rear
13___12___Headway into midfield

Pearson___+0.44___Breeze from stand side?

Weather conditions: Dry, breezy. (race report)

If you watch the replay on the Racing Post site you hear that Dubawi Gold (finished 2nd) was out the back, then made his move around the field to the right.
I assume this was to get shelter from the breeze.

The Pearson number above compares the finish position to the draw position, and gives a high correlation between low draw and low finish.
(0.00 would say random relationship, the range is from -1.00 to +1.00; a +1.00 would be draw 1, finish 1, draw 2 finish 2, draw 3 finish 3 and so on).

I'm not saying Frankel won because of the draw as he was out front taking the wind from the start, and Frankel draw 1 and 1st place improves the Pearson a bit.
Just saying the draw influenced the placings imo.
__________________________________________________ ________________________

An analysis of the draw and result of the 1000 Guineas.

Horse_________________Draw__Result
BLUE BUNTING___________16_____1
TOGETHER_______________4_____2
MAQAASID_______________3_____3
NOVA HAWK_____________7_____4
BAREFOOT LADY_________8_____5
HAVANT________________5_____6
MOONLIGHT CLOUD_______9_____7
HOORAY_______________13_____8
I LOVE ME_______________6_____9
ELSHABAKIYA___________14____10
MISTY FOR ME___________2____11
CAPE DOLLAR___________10____12
THE SHREW_____________18____13
SHOW RAINBOW_________11____14
EMPOWERING___________15____15
MAKE A DANCE__________12____16
LAUGHING LASHES_______17____17
MEMORY________________1____18

Pearson______________________+0.25
without MEMORY (left)__________+0.49
and without BLUE BUNTING______+0.70

withdrawn IMMORTAL VERSE

The +0.49 and +0.70 Pearson indicates an almost perfect relationship between a low draw and a good finishing position.

Blue Bunting was the only filly to do well from a high draw.
This suggests she overcame a big obstacle to win and that she is very good.

Maqaasid hit the front about 100 yards from the finish but faded close home as she has done in many of her races.
Another plus for me was her sire is Green Desert, who produces fast ground horses, and it is fast at Newmarket this weekend.

A good place to watch videos of a horse is the Sporting Life website. Put in the horse name and you can see all its races.

Draw is more than just which side of the track is softest, wind is also a big factor. If flag bunting is straight out it is 20 mph.

I know tl;dr.

[kincsem]

I read on the Betfair forum Maqaasid hit 1.7 in running.

[kincsem]

Dettori said: "With the strong wind, I thought that I should just shield her behind some horses and, fortunately for me, they went a good gallop.

[kincsem]

Epsom Oaks 3rd June
I have two small antepost bets

Back
Beatrice Aurore 24.02 €45.00 €1,035.75
Together 28.6 €47.00 €1,297.00

It appears that Aidan O'Brien will not run Together in the Oaks and she will go for the Coronation Stakes at Ascot. It looks like Misty For Me is going to the Oaks. Imo Misty For Me has a speedier pedigree and will probably struggle to stay the 12f at Epsom unless the ground is firm.

Beatrice Aurore is imo an interesting outsider. She won her last two races both at Goodwood and both with the comment "soon in command, readily" although these were only an 8f handicap and a 10f listed race. She has only raced at a lower level, but she has a middle-distance pedigree. Paddy Power have her at 16/1 and could be value each-way.
I do not know if she will run in the Oaks or not.

Sporting Life videos for any horse

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/UKRacing/

After watching her two races on video I increased my stake to
Beatrice Aurore 21.17 €115.00 €2,319.26

[kincsem]

Beatrice Aurore is owned by Benny Andersson of ABBA.

[Warper]

Like the look of Recital in the Derby @ 7-1 now that Fallon is confirmed jock. If they can sort out his head-carriage he looks sure to run a big race.

[The Situation]

Like the look of Recital in the Derby @ 7-1 now that Fallon is confirmed jock. If they can sort out his head-carriage he looks sure to run a big race.

Recital or Fallon?

[kincsem]

Kieren Fallon gets off Native Khan to ride Recital for Aidan O'Brien in the Derby.

That Fallon has a neck on him like a jockey's neck.

[The Situation]

Misty For Me for the Oaks. Think the 8/1 ladbrokes are laying is too tempting to refuse ew. No guarantee she'll stay but hopeful considering breeding.

[Wesley Harms]

Kieren Fallon gets off Native Khan to ride Recital for Aidan O'Brien in the Derby.

That Fallon has a neck on him like a jockey's neck.

Even Fallon is not stupid enough to say no to Ballydoyle

[Charlie Sheen]

I'll be backing Blue Bunting @ 9/4. Best form in the race winning the 1000 Guineas and a horse who should be better over the longer distance.

[eagle eye]

I'm backing Blue Bunting too, I think she should be odds on and have to back it at the price and I think its gonna win easy too.

[kincsem]

No doubles, trebles, or accumulators landed.

[luluxiu]

Happy to leave it, because I do not think much of value left. Pathfork is valuable throughout the winter, but short enough. Hope Frankel gate inches