My exit hand, opinions please

[twitch1984]

The reason I pushed this was the fact the blinds were about tout to rise to 2.5/5k with 500 ante, I hadnt seen many good hands for a while.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 2.75 Tournament, 2000/4000 Blinds 400 Ante (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t174788)
BB (t231776)
UTG (t229664)
UTG+1 (t156195)
Hero (MP1) (t83474)
MP2 (t149721)
MP3 (t107636)
CO (t73655)
Button (t136537)

Hero's M: 8.70

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 10:diamond:, J:diamond:
2 folds, Hero bets t83074 (All-In), 1 fold, MP3 raises to t107236 (All-In), 1 fold, Button raises to t136137 (All-In), 2 folds

Flop: (t307146) 6:diamond:, 10:club:, 4:spade: (3 players, 3 all-in)

Turn: (t307146) 2:club: (3 players, 3 all-in)

River: (t307146) K:diamond: (3 players, 3 all-in)

Total pot: t307146

Results:
Button had A:spade:, K:club: (one pair, Kings).
Hero had 10:diamond:, J:diamond: (one pair, tens).
MP3 had K:heart:, A:diamond: (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: Button won t153573, MP3 won t153573

[Starvin Marvin]

Madness, fold.

[Crow]

fold

even though the blinds are rising you still have a stack to wait for a better spot

shoving 21bbs is mad even if you had a better hand

[fumyname]

No discussion needed -fold....

I don't mind min raise/fold either if ur so in love with it

but oop u gotta muck this crap

[Emmet]

You have a >15bbs stack even with the blind increase. That's plenty!

[sligoboi]

Yeah, standard fold. Wouldn't mind it so much if positions were swapped and you jammed over their raise but openshoving 21bbs from mp with j10 is never good. We still have 16bbs after the blinds go up

[MegaSin]

I don't like this at all so OOP. Even in postion I hate it.

Shoving I do at <10BBs which most people consider nitty.

[Mellor]

You pretty much butchered it

Shoving was by far the worst option.
Fold>Raise/fold>>>>>shoving

[Angry-Ball]

yeah i agree with all the others
you assumed you were under pressure when in fact you could have easily waited for another orbit or two before you reached the 10~bb threshold

pushing was by far the worst option you basically took a playable 20bb stack and removed all the play from it
you could have raised to 2x and folded to a reraise
or raised and 4bet shoved if you felt villian was at it

[peterswellman]

I jam this on the button or cut-off if I know I won't be called lightly. Obv sb ship aswell. Bit early to be shipping this though IMO. Seems to be the new thing jamming 20bb rather light with hands that have reasonable equity when called.

[Wombatman]

You pretty much butchered it

Shoving was by far the worst option.
Fold>Raise/fold>>>>>shoving

I really value your contribution here but there is no need for the hyperbole. It can be a turn off to improving players genuinely looking for help. A lot of the moves that appear obvious to you have yet to be learned by beginners. I have never seen anything butchered in one move.
Giving an example of where it would be OK to shove with this hand or explaining why raise folding is better than shoving could almost be done in the time it takes to belittle the guy.

[Carl_Morrissey]

I understand you shoving here with a hand that has a lot of equity against big hands but you simply have too many chips to ship it in. You have an awkward stack size for a raise/fold so just open folding is right. 10bb or less id shove here, never call off though with this hand.

[AndyFatBastard]

Raise/folding is ok if the rest of the table thinks you're a nit. Otherwise, just let it go. This isn't your favourite hand, is it?

[Alfie]

This definitely isn't as bad as people are making out. Shoving in this spot is going to be +cEV, the only thing is that is probably isn't the most optimal way to play it in this tourney.

If, for some reason, this was the toughest $2 freezeout in the world and you were at a table with some really good MTT players, then the jam is fine/unexploitable.

I think, in this tourney, raise/folding is probably slightly better than folding and you aren't really deep enough to raise and then 4bet jam.

[DaKlowen]

The reason I pushed this was the fact the blinds were about tout to rise to 2.5/5k with 500 ante, I hadnt seen many good hands for a while.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 2.75 Tournament, 2000/4000 Blinds 400 Ante (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t174788)
BB (t231776)
UTG (t229664)
UTG+1 (t156195)
Hero (MP1) (t83474)
MP2 (t149721)
MP3 (t107636)
CO (t73655)
Button (t136537)

Hero's M: 8.70

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 10:diamond:, J:diamond:
2 folds, Hero bets t83074 (All-In), 1 fold, MP3 raises to t107236 (All-In), 1 fold, Button raises to t136137 (All-In), 2 folds

Flop: (t307146) 6:diamond:, 10:club:, 4:spade: (3 players, 3 all-in)

Turn: (t307146) 2:club: (3 players, 3 all-in)

River: (t307146) K:diamond: (3 players, 3 all-in)

Total pot: t307146

Results:
Button had A:spade:, K:club: (one pair, Kings).
Hero had 10:diamond:, J:diamond: (one pair, tens).
MP3 had K:heart:, A:diamond: (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: Button won t153573, MP3 won t153573

I like

[Mellor]

I really value your contribution here but there is no need for the hyperbole. It can be a turn off to improving players genuinely looking for help. A lot of the moves that appear obvious to you have yet to be learned by beginners. I have never seen anything butchered in one move.
Giving an example of where it would be OK to shove with this hand or explaining why raise folding is better than shoving could almost be done in the time it takes to belittle the guy.

I honestly wasn't trying to belittle the guy, and I hope the OP didn't think i was, nor was I using hyperbole. Debating weather or not butchered is technically accurate is a bit pointless, its a figure of speach.
That said I agree with the rest of your post and see your point, so;

Firstly, we are somewhat OOP being in MP!, and our M is just below 10 so we should be playing pretty tight here as any hand that we raise with we should be prepared to get it in (either 4bet shove or post flop)

Fold - The hand looks pretty, but in reality its not at all strong. This combined with our position makes it a simple enough fold. Move on, play the next hand.

Raise/fold - Depending on the table and your image (you said you haven't been pickinh up many hands, so they should view you as tight). A raise to pick up the pot may be suitable. But its very much table/image dependant. But, its not great imo, as we always fold to a 3bet and if we are called, post flop isn't going to be tricky most of the time.

Call - not a good idea imo, most ogten end up taking a flop multiway and even if we connect we are unlikely to be good. We don't flop 2 pair or a big draw often enough to juistify calling this shallow.

Shove - Risking 20bb+ to pick up less that 10% of our stack. When called we are never in good shape, best case we are flippign against an under pair, worst and over pair or something like AJ has us in a bad way. We simply don't get through often enough to make this profitable imo.

This definitely isn't as bad as people are making out. Shoving in this spot is going to be +cEV, the only thing is that is probably isn't the most optimal way to play it in this tourney.

Disagree with this, its not +EV imo, if it was then it couldn't be considered bad (as is the consenus so far).

Do you think shoving is better than folding?
You must if you think shoving is +EV

If, for some reason, this was the toughest $2 freezeout in the world and you were at a table with some really good MTT players, then the jam is fine/unexploitable.

I think, in this tourney, raise/folding is probably slightly better than folding and you aren't really deep enough to raise and then 4bet jam.

While generally, the stakes shouldn't affect the best line from a strat point of view, in this case we are prob going to be called lighter due to some of the less experienced players at the table, this makes shoving less effective.

[Kenny]

open shoving with an M of 8 or over is never good, You should be looking to resteal with a stack like this to build chips

While generally, the stakes shouldn't affect the best line from a strat point of view, in this case we are prob going to be called lighter due to some of the less experienced players at the table, this makes shoving less effective.

+1, which might effect your ability to resteal

[Alfie]

I'm a bit of a noob on the quotes and stufff...

"Disagree with this, its not +EV imo, if it was then it couldn't be considered bad (as is the consenus so far)."


- Mellor

Well, it's +EV in a vacuum, I simply consulted a shoving chart. The problem with the chart is it assumes people call perfectly, which they obviously don't in a $2 tourney (this was why I referenced the stake, I also think the buy-in absolutely does make a difference in relation to strat posts) so it's tough to know for sure but I'd be very surprised if it was a losing play.

I would also take little or no heed to what the majority of people think in relation to whether jamming here has positive expectation, it's a pretty small sample of opinions, and I was just referencing a mathematically calculated chart of profitable shoving ranges from various positions with various stack sizes.


"Do you think shoving is better than folding?
You must if you think shoving is +EV"

-Mellor

No, I think in this tourney folding is better than shoving because you will get in more +EV spots later on so it's a pretty simple case of passing up a small edge to get a bigger one later. Raise/folding is probably best here, but it's pretty close between that and folding. None of the 3 options are going to lose you chips in the long-run, though, you just need to choose the one which maximizes your expectation...

[Alfie]

open shoving with an M of 8 or over is never good

I agree it's not good here but I disagree with the statement overall. Why do you think it's never good? What is your standard line with your opening range in early position with this stack size in a tough tournament?

[Mellor]

I'm a bit of a noob on the quotes and stufff...

"Disagree with this, its not +EV imo, if it was then it couldn't be considered bad (as is the consenus so far)."


- Mellor

Well, it's +EV in a vacuum, I simply consulted a shoving chart. The problem with the chart is it assumes people call perfectly, which they obviously don't in a $2 tourney (this was why I referenced the stake, I also think the buy-in absolutely does make a difference in relation to strat posts) so it's tough to know for sure but I'd be very surprised if it was a losing play.


I would also take little or no heed to what the majority of people think in relation to whether jamming here has positive expectation, it's a pretty small sample of opinions, and I was just referencing a mathematically calculated chart of profitable shoving ranges from various positions with various stack sizes.

What shoving chart? Link.
How good it is would depend on what calling ranges are assumed.
I don't give much weight to charts in general, but I can't really comment on the above as I haven't seen it

"Do you think shoving is better than folding?
You must if you think shoving is +EV"

-Mellor

No, I think in this tourney folding is better than shoving because you will get in more +EV spots later on so it's a pretty simple case of passing up a small edge to get a bigger one later. Raise/folding is probably best here, but it's pretty close between that and folding. None of the 3 options are going to lose you chips in the long-run, though, you just need to choose the one which maximizes your expectation...

The whole concept of passing up an edge for a bigger one later is a fallacy of sorts. Folding doesn't change the chances of a bigger edge occurring. And the two situations aren't related.
To maximise your expectation, you should take both +EV plays. Take the small edge now, and have a bigger stack when the bigger edge presents itself.

Obviously infinitesimal edges can be ignored

[Alfie]

What shoving chart? Link.
How good it is would depend on what calling ranges are assumed.
I don't give much weight to charts in general, but I can't really comment on the above as I haven't seen it



The whole concept of passing up an edge for a bigger one later is a fallacy of sorts. Folding doesn't change the chances of a bigger edge occurring. And the two situations aren't related.
To maximise your expectation, you should take both +EV plays. Take the small edge now, and have a bigger stack when the bigger edge presents itself.

Obviously infinitesimal edges can be ignored

PM Sent.

Yeah, I pretty stringently thought the same thing until recently - that you should take every edge possible in tournaments - to a large extent that's completely true and people don't do it nearly enough. But spots definitely arise where you should pass up a small edge to get a bigger one later on. I'm not sure but this is probably one of them, where you have a pretty workable stack in a tourney where the field will be generally very weak.

Also, you will see that JTs is right at the bottom of the profitable jam range in this spot and, again, it assume people are calling perfectly which they certainly aren't so it's going to be really close (an infinitesimal edge, as you put it) and not worth taking. I also concede that it might not be profitable in this spot, but it really depends on the other players' calling ranges, for which you just need to guesstimate and make assumptions...

[doke]

Shoving is marginally +cEv regardless of calling ranges since according to the equilibrium solution in the Kill Everyone appendix it's +Cev even if all players behind know the range you're shoving and are calling optimally. So it's by no means horrible: it's probably profitable but not optimal.

Raise/folding is pretty unappealing. If you raise intending to fold to a reraise, your cards don't matter much (unless there's a strong likelihood your raise will be flatted in which case any likely post flop equity is nice). So whether it's profitable depends largely on the chance that it gets through (or gets flatted by someone who will check fold if they miss).

Negreanu suggests limping these kind of hands with 12-20 bbs. I guess it fits in with his smallball "outplay em postflop" philosophy but I'm not convinced it's that good an idea.

Folding is obviously fine.

I agree with something I read in a Sklansky book once that if the blinds are about to go up, that's a stronger reason NOT to take a somewhat rash shove than it is to take one. If you're going to shove rashly at least wait til the blinds have gone up, as the reward is higher then if it gets through.

If I found myself in a similar spot at an EPT table with some of the toughest players in the world well off the bubble, it'd be a toss up here between shoving and folding.

If it's a soft Irish table, it's a tossup between raise/folding and folding (depending on how likely I think it is I'll be reraised or called, and how any likely callers will play post flop).

If it's near a significant bubble it's a tossup between folding after thinking about it, and instafolding.

[Alfie]

Raise/folding is pretty unappealing. If you raise intending to fold to a reraise, your cards don't matter much (unless there's a strong likelihood your raise will be flatted in which case any likely post flop equity is nice). So whether it's profitable depends largely on the chance that it gets through (or gets flatted by someone who will check fold if they miss).

Would you agree that, in the tourney in question here, raise/folding gets through a decent amount or you get flatted and have decent equity post-flop but in tougher MTTs it's just bad to raise/fold in this spot, absent of some sort of really passive dynamic?

Obviously this is dependent on stack sizes behind, against some of which we will be calling a jam...

In general, I'm a big proponent of not raise/folding with ~20bb's or less as a default but surely in something as soft as this it would be fine?

Edit: you actually pretty much answered all of this in the 2nd half of your post! ooops

[Wombatman]

Warning: Rough calcs for illustration purposes only and could well be fooked

If 5% of hands call you then there is a .95 chance that the first guy won\'t call. Given all positions an equal chance of calling for ease of calculation there is a .95 to the power of 6 (remaining players) chance that you won\'t get called = .73

So .73 times you win 9600 = 7008

Of the time you get called (.27)
-you double up .34 of the time
93000 * .09 = 8370

-but go bust .66 of the time
-83474 * .18 = -15025

So in the long run
(.73 get the blinds and antes, .09 you get called and win, .18 you get called and go bust)
against a calling range of 99+,AQs+,AQo+ for all 6 remaining players
you win more (15378) than you lose (-15025) giving the push a positive expected value or +EV

[doke]

Would you agree that, in the tourney in question here, raise/folding gets through a decent amount or you get flatted and have decent equity post-flop but in tougher MTTs it's just bad to raise/fold in this spot, absent of some sort of really passive dynamic?

Obviously this is dependent on stack sizes behind, against some of which we will be calling a jam...

In general, I'm a big proponent of not raise/folding with ~20bb's or less as a default but surely in something as soft as this it would be fine?

Agree totally. I seem to remember a very good player (Andy Grimasson iirc) said once he'd raise fold a stack < 10 bbs in the Fitz EOM late on because the tournament is so soft and there's bugger all difference between most people's shoving and calling a shove ranges in that situation (way way tighter than optimal). Negreanu says something similar in his book about bubbles in big tournaments like the WSOP main event: most people are throwing away anything that isn't QQ+ whether you raise or shove, so raising is betteras it allows yourself to fold if there does happen to be a monster out.

At tough tables raise folding at that point is pretty horrible. Once you do it once, the better players will be looking to reshove over you at every available opportunity.

[Mellor]

Dara, can you post brief details of equilibrium solution? Still haven't picked up kill everyone. I'm not sure what you mean by "regardless of alligator ranges" as the tighter they call the more profitable i would of assumed

Womatman, those calcs look good, and its good against that range. But i don't agree with the range. I think it widens closer to button and blinds. Which means we get through less, and slightly wider is where we really gets bad for us. See my point earlier about getting called light in this tourney, and Doke's comments about a shove being fine on tough EPT table

[elbows]

Very interesting thread.

I would never have considered shoving in this position but you certainly can make a reasonable case for doing so.

[gorrrr72]

Very interesting thread.

I would never have considered shoving in this position but you certainly can make a reasonable case for doing so.

Not really mate. If anything it proves it's mostly donkism to shove 20bb UTG with any hand.

[elbows]

Not really mate. If anything it proves it's mostly donkism to shove 20bb UTG with any hand.

20 yes but you can argue at around 15 it can be profitable.

[Kenny]

Shoving is marginally +cEv regardless of calling ranges since according to the equilibrium solution in the Kill Everyone appendix it's +Cev even if all players behind know the range you're shoving and are calling optimally. So it's by no means horrible: it's probably profitable but not optimal.

your understanding of this would be alot greater than mine but

The equilibrium solution in kill eveyone for open shoves is based on having between 3 and 8 CSI, we are slightly over, 8.7 M. So with 6 players behind and csi of 8.7 that would be a value of 52.2 on the chart when it says anything up to a value of 58 is a shove,

do you think it makes much of a difference we nearly have 9M here as opposed to 3-8?

i would feel uncomfortable making shoves with playable stacks on what i see as the margins of the equilibrium strat.

[Kenny]

I agree it's not good here but I disagree with the statement overall. Why do you think it's never good? What is your standard line with your opening range in early position with this stack size in a tough tournament?

never say never i suppose, was just the way i phrased it. Like i said above i dont like this spot to shove because i think it is close, in a tough tournament i feel my resteal range opens and my range for opening in EP tightens, im not sure weather iv answered you question here at all

[twitch1984]

open shoving with an M of 8 or over is never good, You should be looking to resteal with a stack like this to build chips



+1, which might effect your ability to resteal

ok here shows how green i am but what does the m stand for in the hand converter?

[gorrrr72]

ok here shows how green i am but what does the m stand for in the hand converter?

1 m = the total chips it costs you per orbit.

Add the BB, SB and antes together.

[twitch1984]

1 m = the total chips it costs you per orbit.

Add the BB, SB and antes together.

Thanks gorrrr. so 8 m is 8 rounds of the table yes

[Kenny]

Thanks gorrrr. so 8 m is 8 rounds of the table yes

yep, so what i was saying above was that with between 7 to 12 M you have a good stack to try pick off raise with a shove, with 7 or less you could be looking to just shove instead of open

[Ramiriquez]

Most interesting thread I've read in a while. Glad you posted it twitch as I said after I saw it that I didn't like it, but I now know a lot more as to why I didn't

[Mellor]

Ah, here's a problem of sorts. When you included the M in the OP i assumed that you were familar with it (obviouisly a mistake as its auto with the convertor) so left some stuff out of my initial post. That Wombat refered "moves that appear obvious to you have yet to be learned by beginners".

The concept of M ratios are pretty solid second level basics. I'm not sure who coined the phrase, but its gain widespread knowledge through Harrington on hold'em 1 & 2, if you are going to play any tourney those two books are required reading. Just for the concepts and theories, harrington is a bit of a nit himself