Was this a stupid call?

[twitch1984]

Final table of a local pub tourney blinds 500/1000 avg 40k

im in bb with jd8d, folded to button who limps sb folds I check
me 37k button 82k

flop 9d10d2s

I bet 3k, button moves all in

I have plated with him before and he is easy to read ie.. aggressive with middle hands, loves to slow play big hands, the limp pre screams aa,kk

My reckoning behind calling is I am below avg stack with a chance to double up, I pretty much know im behind but feel I have numerous outs ( any 7,q,or diamond)

I call he shows aa, board runs out xx and he wins.

Just wondering if I could have folded this or was I in a position where I had to take a flip and hope for the best.

What would you do?

[sligoboi]

37bbs is below average stack at a pub tourney final table!?!

[Flushdraw]

I don't lead the flop, I check raise and call a push.

There's no way you can put him on AA/KK from his limp pre. Sure you can put them hands in his range but no way you can narrow it to just those 2 hands

As played you're favourite against your read, so call if you're that sure

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

11,880 games 0.005 secs 2,376,000 games/sec

Board: Td 9d 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.010% 46.01% 00.00% 5466 0.00 { KK+ }
Hand 1: 53.990% 53.99% 00.00% 6414 0.00 { Jd8d }

[MegaSin]

Getting a 37 BBs stack in and knowing you are behind is bad imo.

Although his shove is also horrible.

Fold it out and wait for a better spot imo

[sligoboi]

Getting a 37 BBs stack in and knowing you are behind is bad imo.

Although his shove is also horrible.

Fold it out and wait for a better spot imo

Technically behind but has 2 outs to the stone colds, 15 in most likelihood and maybe even 3 more with a jack.

Edit and as FD says I'm never leading this flop and we really can't nail him down to 2 hands.

[MegaSin]

Technically behind but has 2 outs to the stone colds, 15 in most likelihood and maybe even 3 more with a jack.

Edit and as FD says I'm never leading this flop and we really can't nail him down to 2 hands.

Shit didn't see that this was a open StrFd.

Yeah pretty much what FD said.

[bustamoves]

how bad are the other players? some pub tourneys are comical.

u could conceivably pass this up and play on with a fair chance of getting chips later without risking your tourney life now.

as for betting out. if you were confident in your read that he limped a monster then you could have check called (or check raised) and had more control of your destiny

[Mellor]

u could conceivably pass this up and play on with a fair chance of getting chips later without risking your tourney life now.

You won't get a better chance to get chips than this one. one of the strongest situations in poker.


OP, you know you are drawing to stay in, an unless there is some bubble factor at play these are easy spots to get it in. There are very few specific hands you are -EV too.

[twitch1984]

You won't get a better chance to get chips than this one. one of the strongest situations in poker.


OP, you know you are drawing to stay in, an unless there is some bubble factor at play these are easy spots to get it in. There are very few specific hands you are -EV too.

already in the money so bubble is not a factor, I pretty much knew I was drawing , 99% sure that I was behind but just loooked at the amounts of outs and took a chance.

Probably my biggest fault when I play is the fact I dont get very specific with odds and values, I just look at my possible outs and decide whether I feel like gambling or not

[cardshark202]

flop is normally an autolead in limped pots, also I prefer check/shove to a check raise/call. You don't want him shoving QJ or some shite. Gotta call now anyway

[Mellor]

already in the money so bubble is not a factor, I pretty much knew I was drawing , 99% sure that I was behind but just loooked at the amounts of outs and took a chance.

Probably my biggest fault when I play is the fact I dont get very specific with odds and values, I just look at my possible outs and decide whether I feel like gambling or not

I said bubble factor, not "the" bubble.
Bubble factor will apply right up to 3 handed, its where chip EV is less than $ EV and you need higher odds to call.

99% is prob a little low, J high, 100% behind but still and easy call

[Moneymaker]

I'm always leading here. We've such a strong draw we don't need to worry about being raised and being blown off it.

We can take the pot down a lot of the time right here by leading and if someone raises we can get it in and have good equity against basically anything.

If someone calls we can barrel almost any turn and build the pot.

Also, putting someone on KK+ because they limped is lol. With a live player this could be half the deck pretty much, 76o, 22, A5s, QJo, all sorts of shite.

I'm always calling off here. No such thing as better spots. It's +EV or it isn't.

[gorrrr72]

If your read is he has a big pair when he limps then you shouldn't lead unless you want to get it in now with such a strong draw.

If you pretty much know what he has then you could profitably check/call the flop assuming he bets a normal amount 1/2 - 3/4 pot etc. And maybe check/call the turn if he gives you the odds.

Just play the hand getting the straight pot odds if he is not going to fold his overpair. Maybe he'll call a value bet if you hit too.

I think part of flopping such a strong draw is the confidence in getting a fold most of the time when you check/raise and being in good/great shape if called.

Personally I would go for a c/r all in (which I would also do if I flopped 2 pair or a set on this board) but if he checks the flop behind and the turn bricks, bet/fold to a shove.

[Dice75]

40bb average stack on the final table of a pub tourney with the blinds only at 500/1000?
What time does the pub stay open till?
Starting stack & runners?
Sounds like a good game.

Anyhow, if you bet 3k into a 2.5k pot on the flop you must want to play a big pot on later streets?

[DAMO72]

If your gonna bet 3k into a 2.5k pot then you were better off just open shoving.

[Mellor]

If your read is he has a big pair when he limps then you shouldn't lead unless you want to get it in now with such a strong draw.

Well that's sort of what we want. to get it in now when we are miles ahead in terms of EV

[gorrrr72]

Well that's sort of what we want. to get it in now when we are miles ahead in terms of EV

That's what I'm getting at. The OP's question was "is this a stupid call?"
I'm trying to point out that by leading, his opponent is probably going to shove, according to the OP's read.
Why lead and then ask is it a stupid call if you know he is going to do it. He induced the shove by leading then asks if he should call.

There are a lots of reasons why I would lead in various spots but in this instance I would only lead if I wanted to get it in.