Final table mtt online, standard spot?

[bustamoves]

OK pretty standard spot i guess but i wanna know what u how you guys think about this spot.

final table 10 euro rebuy, 6 handed i am 2nd last in chips with 11 BB with pockets 3's on big blind. MP is 2nd largest stack shoves allin and i call. he tables K5 and hits.

the level has just started and and so there is like 10 mins left so i do have time to wait on bigger hands.

should i be thinking of holding off for shoving opportunites as opposed to calling or just going for the flip?

what are the factors that should influence my decision and how do you guys weight them. e.g pay jumps, time left in level.

my brain is hardwired to cash where i will instaship if i believe i have any smidgeon of +EV in a pot just to let you know where i am coming from.

tnx

[Caf]

How many BB is avg?

[bustamoves]

i have to guess at it. i dont remember exactly. would estimate average stack to be between 20-25 BB. how does that affect your thinking?

[Caf]

I fold and wait for a better spot.

The avg is 2x our stack so we have enough to shove and win pots preflop(we double up with 2 shoves getting through).

Calling with low pockets pairs is basically calling to flip at best when we don't really need to do it.

Villains range here shouldn't be seen as weak imo. He's second in chips and shoving. Just because he turns up with K5 doesn't mean he can't have 44+ or any real hand.

[bustamoves]

I fold and wait for a better spot.

The avg is 2x our stack so we have enough to shove and win pots preflop(we double up with 2 shoves getting through).

Calling with low pockets pairs is basically calling to flip at best when we don't really need to do it.

Villains range here shouldn't be seen as weak imo. He's second in chips and shoving. Just because he turns up with K5 doesn't mean he can't have 44+ or any real hand.

no antes so i how can u say 2 shoves getting through doubles my stack? otherwise i take your point. interesting. does taking a flip and a double through have any merit in terms of going for juggler and try to dominate/run table/steal/see more flops etc??

[Caf]

no antes so i how can u say 2 shoves getting through doubles my stack?

otherwise i take your point. interesting.

does taking a flip and a double through have any merit in terms of going for juggler and try to dominate/run table/steal/see more flops etc??

FYP.

No antes? what game is this?

It's still a fold and for the same reasons although we may not double up from 2 shoves getting through.

Take a flip? We are flipping at best.

[8611]

i fold here and start calling at around 88 or 99, or when I've 6BBs of less

[a-k-47]

with no antes and level just started ill fold here most of the time.

[Funkymonk]

ye id rather fold here and shove almost any two from button than take what is at best a flip

[Angry-Ball]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.445% 45.06% 00.38% 771620 6541.50 { Ks5h }
Hand 1: 54.555% 54.17% 00.38% 927601 6541.50 { 3c3d }

pokerstove says its 45/55 in your favour
but i still don't like it
i prefer to shove atc from lp when ever its folded to me

[peterswellman]

Def a fold. This is a gamble I really dislike. Can be crushed quite a bit here and were never in great shape. Ship with threes don't call with them. Although tbh, I'm shipping waaaay wider than 33 in a game like this.

[BallymoreChris]

Fold 100% of the time.

[GAWA9]

This seems like a pretty clear fold, also might wanna move your play to a network with antes.

[doke]

Definite fold. 33 is an awful hand to call a shove with especially when ICM is a factor: even against atc it's only got about 55% equity.

[bustamoves]

if it was a live 100 donkament does this change you decison?

Definite fold. 33 is an awful hand to call a shove with especially when ICM is a factor: even against atc it's only got about 55% equity.

what i am getting at here is in a live donkament with the rate of 25-35 hands per hour where the actual number of hands we are likely to see is going to be much fewer from this point on. does that egde anyone towards calling these flips (assuming we know villain to to be pushing wide so as it to be a flip against his range, i take your points about it being a flip 'at best' in original case)?

also, i dont use an ICM or calculator, are others using these to make decisions online at final tables? does it work like a HUD with instant information or how do they operate? sry total tounrny software noob here. even a bit unclear on how u arrive at a decision based on ICM.

[Mellor]

Take a flip? We are flipping at best.

Pretty much this. Ok there are a fw like A3, K3, A2, that are prob there. But otherwise

also, i dont use an ICM or calculator, are others using these to make decisions online at final tables? does it work like a HUD with instant information or how do they operate? sry total tounrny software noob here. even a bit unclear on how u arrive at a decision based on ICM.

There are some ICM HUDs out there, but they are quite contraversial. Not sure what the policy is on most sites.
There are also manual ICM calculators, but quite hard to use while in a hand. Ok for do a quick ICM check on breaks.

ICM is normally a tool for retrospective analysis, after doing it a lot, you tend to pick up a sense for it.

[doke]

what i am getting at here is in a live donkament with the rate of 25-35 hands per hour where the actual number of hands we are likely to see is going to be much fewer from this point on. does that egde anyone towards calling these flips (assuming we know villain to to be pushing wide so as it to be a flip against his range, i take your points about it being a flip 'at best' in original case)?

also, i dont use an ICM or calculator, are others using these to make decisions online at final tables? does it work like a HUD with instant information or how do they operate? sry total tounrny software noob here. even a bit unclear on how u arrive at a decision based on ICM.

What Mellor said about getting a sense for it through retrospective analysis/experience.

ICM is nigh impossible to calculate on the fly, but there's a very useful related concept explained in "Kill Everyone" referred to there as bubble factor which is a mathematical expression of the premium required over the bare pot odds to make a call correct in a tournament.

Quick summary: say someone shoves and you're getting 6/4 on the call, what equity do you need against the shover's range for the call to be correct? If you think the answer is 40%, think again. In a tournament with a stepped payout structure where ICM therefore applies, you always need more than 40%. How much more is determined by "bubble factor", which depends on a number of factors including
(a) how steep the payout structure is (the steeper, the higher the bubble factor will be)
(b) your position relative to other stacks (when you're the shortest, your bubble factor shrinks. When you're a medium stack, it increases rapidly. If you're huge chipleader, it shrinks again)
(c) if you're not the short stack, how short the shortie is. If he's about to blind out, your bubble factor is much higher than if he's still relatively healthy
(d) whether you cover your opponent or not. If two medium or big stacks collide, the smaller of the two stacks has a higher bubble factor
(e) how near the bubble you are (in the earlier stages of tourneys, bubble factor is negligible. It steadily increases as you approach and pass the bubble and remains significant until you get to headsup, when it ceases to apply)

Simplest example I can think of to illustrate bubble factor. Supersatellite, 9 10K WSOP ME packages, 10 left, all with the same stack (extreme example obv). If someone shoves all in, you need 90% plus against his range for the call to be correct. You're getting evens on the call, but need to be a 9 to 1 favourite, because your bubble factor here is 9.

I don't calculate ICM or bubble factor on the fly, but I've run the numbers in my study time on a lot of typical situations, so I now have an intuitive sense of the bubble factor. So when faced with a decision late on in tourneys, I don't work out the math exactly, I estimate the bubble factor based on the factors it depends on, pick a number based on informed experience (for example "I think my bubble factor here is about 1.2"), multiply that number by my equity against my opponent's perceived range, and see if the pot is offering me greater odds than that. If not, I fold without further thought. If it's a lot more, I call without further thought. If it's close, I start to take other factors into account such as my perceived edge over the field, the speed of the structure, how deep we are. These determine whether it might be correct to pass up a small edge in this particular spot in the expectation of bigger edges presenting themselves in future.

For example, if I'm at a table of terrified fish all desperately trying to move up the pay ladder and playing so sub optimally that I can expect to increase my stack without any big risks I might even pass up quite a large edge if it's for all my stack or a significant enough chunk to severely damage me. If it's an EPT late on and there are only mad aggro Scandis left and we all have < 20 bbs, I'm calling even with a miniscule edge.

[bustamoves]

just a little brag, cant help myself..

just won a (well i chopped as chip leader!) an MTT online after 4 days of switching my focus to them as opposed to cash. made a gigantic stack by 3 level (hitting set of 99's vs AA and A9o helped of course) and steadied ship a bit and eventually
saw myself to the end phew!!!

how do guys play MTTS for a living i wonders (all the heartbreak...but the win makes up for it when it comes i guess)

plenty more adjustments to make but a nice feeling to come through even if it wasnt a huge buyin or even a huge field.


excellent exposition there MR. DOKE on ICM. very insightful. cheers