Whats your play here?

[Wombatman]

Common spot in small live tournies.

EP with 77 and 10 Bbs with 7 at table.

Avg stack 25bbs. 6 Paid with 14 left.

[Flushdraw]

Scorch marks on the felt

[8611]

absent some specific dynamic at the table, like you being able to rob lightly or something, its a definite push. you are increasing your stack by 30% if it gets through and you're rarely fucked if called and are occasionally better than a flip

shove and win flip

[NuckChorris]

Scorch marks on the felt

+1

[Mellor]

there are very very few situations where I don't ship here.
monster stack, in the hands of a very lag, donkey on the BB, who almost always calls,

even then I prob ship

[Emperor Badger]

Shove all day long.

[Laois Hammer]

Shove, and shove alot wider than this so 77 feels like AA

[gorrrr72]

10 handed but 5 left live €55 sng tonight, Blinds 500-1k I'm in BB playing 9.5k shoved over an aggro players 2.5k raise with 77. He had the boots of course

[Wombatman]

42.93% 42.29% 0.63% { 77 }
57.07% 56.44% 0.63% { 66+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }

10% of hands will call you. So each player has a one in ten chance of having a hand that will call.

So chances of a call are:
1 - (.9 * .9 * .9 * .9 * .9 * .9)
1 - .53
= 47%

53% of the time my stack grows by 15%.
20% of the time I double up.
27% of the time Im out the door.

Say the stack is 10000 and blinds are 1000 500.

Then its:

(.53 * 1500) + (.20 * 10750) + (.27 * -10000)
795 + 2150 - 2700 = + 245

Close enough though. What about KJs or 44?

[Flushdraw]

53% of the time my stack grows by 15%.
20% of the time I double up.
27% of the time Im out the door.

I'm not sure if your maths is correct, but if it is, then 73% of the time we double up or add chips to our stack makes this stone wall push

Say the stack is 10000 and blinds are 1000 500.

Then its:

(.53 * 1500) + (.20 * 10750) + (.27 * -10000)
795 + 2150 - 2700 = + 245

Close enough though. What about KJs or 44?

I'm shipping both. I'd be shipping any pair and maybe as low as 54s

[Wombatman]

I\'m not sure if your maths is correct, but if it is, then 73% of the time we double up or add chips to our stack makes this stone wall push

This is a bit misleading. If I had said 1 % of the time you double up and 72% of the time you take the blinds would you say the same thing?

I\'m shipping both. I\'d be shipping any pair and maybe as low as 54s

54s. Really? Not far off ATC. Im sure it depends on image and table dynamics.

Equity Win Tie
EP 32.17% 31.83% 0.34% 54s
BB 67.83% 67.49% 0.34% 66+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo

(.53 * 1500) + (.15 * 10750) + (.32 * -10000)
795 + 1612 - 3200 = -1383

You are right about the math. Could well be fooked

[Mellor]

10 handed but 5 left ....

What are you trying to say here?
Makes no sense and the BBv is that way >>>>>>

10% of hands will call you. So each player has a one in ten chance of having a hand that will call.

this is the main flaw in your logic, the very next player won't call with 10%, too many to act behind. The button may or may not call wider