River Bet Size?

[Caf]

Hand is from 20k gtd 15 min blinds.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 22 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

MP2 (t3300)
MP3 (t3475)
CO (t3472)
Button (t3595)
SB (t9595)
BB (t2745)
Hero (UTG) (t2865)
UTG+1 (t3600)
MP1 (t2955)

Hero's M: 63.67

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, 10
Hero bets t90, 1 fold, MP1 calls t90, MP2 calls t90, MP3 calls t90, CO raises to t172, 2 folds, BB calls t142, Hero calls t82, MP1 calls t82, MP2 calls t82, MP3 calls t82

Flop: (t1047) 4, 4, 2 (6 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks

Turn: (t1047) J (6 players)
BB bets t570, Hero calls t570, 4 folds

River: (t2187) 8 (2 players)
BB checks

No reads on anyone at the table.

I'm just wondering what people think the best bet is since the remaining stacks are roughly pot size?

I think the hand has played pretty standard up to the river.

[gorrrr72]

I don't like the call on the turn, are you calling a big bet if an ace hits the river. Think you could be getting value owned in this spot. Are you goint to bet regardless of what hits the river if it's checked to you.
Considering you called a large bet on the turn, to make that correct you need to get maximum value for your hand now.
There is no point in calling 570 and betting small imo, It looks like he has 99/1010/AJ, shouldn't really be air or he probably bets the river. I think I bet a minimum of 1200.

[Caf]

I don't like the call on the turn, are you calling a big bet if an ace hits the river. Think you could be getting value owned in this spot. Are you goint to bet regardless of what hits the river if it's checked to you.
Considering you called a large bet on the turn, to make that correct you need to get maximum value for your hand now.
There is no point in calling 570 and betting small imo, It looks like he has 99/1010/AJ, shouldn't really be air or he probably bets the river. I think I bet a minimum of 1200.

I thought about folding there but figured it was a call since I'm risking about 20% of my stack to increase it by about 60%. I think I can withstand a 570 hit if the river comes a blank. Is it really that spewy calling?

If an ace hits, I would be posting that spot asking what's the best bet there! But it's probably a check for me if it does come.

[gorrrr72]

I thought about folding there but figured it was a call since I'm risking about 20% of my stack to increase it by about 60%. I think I can withstand a 570 hit if the river comes a blank. Is it really that spewy calling?

If an ace hits, I would be posting that spot asking what's the best bet there! But it's probably a check for me if it does come.

It's not about withstanding the hit, it's about getting the odds. He's playing the hand fairly weak which means either (a.) he is weak or (b.) he has a monster and he wants you to catch up.
If it's (a.) then you are not certain he will put another chip into the pot which makes the call marginal at best, if it's (b.) you could be drawing dead.

It's frustrating when you make a marginal call and bink only to find he was just taking one stab and giving it up if called. Likewise it's frustrating to bink and then finding yourself having a tournament decision on a paired board when it's really obvious you have a flushdraw.

[IPB Champ]

I agree with Gorrr there. This is the type of hand that can get you leveled if you rep/make a hand. How much i bet on the river depends on what i think the villian is capable of doing in this spot. Your hand is always a "flush" when you lead obviously.

I personally would bet very little. Lets say around 800-1200.. this is probably the best bet as it induces the most bluff reraises and snap calls with marginal hands. If he shoves i'm calling every day or the week and twice on Sundays. If he has it he has it nh wp etc.

All i'm trying to say is this spot is player dependant. Sometimes i may lead very weak as i know villian will read it as weakness and repop or against someone else i may overbet it...

[Alfie]

Yeah, the turn call is incorrect as you are not getting the direct odds to hit your hand (there is also an implied odds vs. reverse implied odds problem here, too, where he isn't always stacking off on Xh river but you are so if he has a boat it's always gna be gg for you).

As played, thought, just timebank jam the river, imo - it's a $22 donkament if a random is gna c/c he's prob gona c/c it all...

[TheImprover]

I am never calling on the turn, you are basically fishing, and you are not getting the correct odds to hit, if he has the 4, you are only about 15% to hit, as played i think i am going to shove to try and turn it in to a bluff but it is hard to do with out any reads, but lets presume he is a donk, a shove is probably the best move as i think he will snap with the 4.
Bad call on the turn tough.



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[Mellor]

Turn is bad for very basic reasons, you've 8 outs, none which are to the nuts, he folds a lot when you hit and he is behind, when you hit and he is ahead you go bust always.

I bet small ish on the river, a shove fold out some of his range we beat, make it 1100 and get a crying cal from a blank 4

[Moneymaker]

Yeah i'd bet about 900 and call a shove.

Really don't like the turn call for the reasons already given.