Flop a Big Draw, now what?

[Emmet]

Playing Rush poker, so no reads or stats on the villain.
He is >200bbs deep, so we can assume he is a decent player.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP ($1.10)
Hero (CO) ($27.74)
Button ($31.22)
SB ($22.19)
BB ($10.89)
UTG ($8.97)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, 10
2 folds, Hero bets $0.35, 1 fold, SB calls $0.30, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.80) Q, 9, 3 (2 players)
SB bets $0.40, Hero raises $1.75, SB calls $1.35

Turn: ($4.30) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($4.30) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.85, SB calls $2.85

Total pot: $10


Reasoning per street.

Pre Flop is pretty standard I would think. Raise 3.5 bbs.

Flop gives me a gutshot and the 2nd Nut Flush Draw.
Villain leads for half pot. I can put him on a Q here a lot, KQ,QJ,QT,Q9 all fairly likely. He has a set sometimes too so 99 and 33 are part of the range. I reckon he 3bets QQ pre.

I have good equity vs this range, but am not too happy to call a bet and see a brick half my equity. I raise for 7/8 pot. Villain calls. I think almost his entire range that I gave him on the flop would call this.

Turn bricks, doesn't hit either of our ranges so when villain checks, I check behind. I still have a lot of outs, but don't like putting my money in bad on the turn, and I'd have to b/f which I don't like.

River Ah. This is a great card for me I think. I have pretty much turned my hand face up at this stage as having a FD or a SD. I don't think villain has AQ here a lot, so it has missed his range, and put another overcard on the board. But the Ace hits my FD range hard. I also opened from the CO, showing some strength. I decide to turn my hand into a bluff here when he checks, I reckon he has a weak enough Queen, never has two pair or a set, as he should've bet these on the river. I bet a little under 3/4 the pot as a bluff.

Thoughts?

thanks as always
EDIT: - seems as though FTR's suit images are down at the moment. I hold KcTc and the flop is Qc9s3c. Turn 6d River Ah

[Moneymaker]

I can't see any suits, i'm assuming you flop a fd along with the gutter.

Pre - No need to make it 3.5x really, 3x is fine at most. Standard open otherwise.

Flop: Flop raise depends on what you think he donks here for the most part, but I like the raise when we're deep, it's building the pot, keeping your range nice and balanced and because its deep he can't really 3bet big and blow you off your draw.

Turn: I would definitely bet here, put pressure on his 9x, weak Qs and smaller fds. It's very hard to rep anything if you miss the river and much much much easier for him to call with Qx/9x. As you're deep he's never going to play back with anything other then monster hands which he's so unlikely to have.

River: It's a good card for you bet definitely, after checking turn I would usually give up if I didn't get there, but I don't mind betting the A at all. I'm still not sure he folds Qx that much if he's anyway competent as he should know its a good card for you to fire on. I think he shows up with A9/Axc a small amount of the time too imo.

[Emmet]

KcTc and the flop is Qc9s3c. Turn 6d River Ah

So in hindsight, a semi bluff on the turn here is better than a bluff on the river?

What kind of size, and we're b/f right?

[digiman]

Bet $3.50 on turn and around $10 on the river, you could shove the river either. He never has a hand he can call you with and if he does then you were unlucky to hit the top of his range that he played in a dumb way. You can easily have 2 pair and sets here were he mostly likely has some Q.

Also you can't make any assupmtion that he is a good player based on that he has 200bb, that's just total nonsense tbh.

[Emmet]

So I'm missing out on a lot of aggression here which is needed? If I bet 3.50 and am called, is this A even better now to fire the whole stack in with? Should I rep AQ here instead of the FD, and that way get paid by sets if I hit?

I've never really played drawing hands well I don't think.

Also you can't make any assupmtion that he is a good player based on that he has 200bb, that's just total nonsense tbh.

Sorry, i wrote a lot in a bit of a rant here.

In rush poker its the only way of determining anything about a player.

For instance, there was a guy sitting with 11buyins. No way was he not decent.

Way I see it, decent players will buy in for the maximum more often than below average players.

Decent players will double up more often than below average players. For him to hit 200bbs we assume he has either played one big hand and got his stack vs another 100bb player, or he has played many hands, and slowly worked his way up to 200bbs. Either way he must be ok.

With rush, you have to make a whole lot of assumptions, and base them on the averages. You could well be miles off course, and he may have sat in with 80bbs, and called an AI with 33 vs an AK and KK, and spiked a 3. But I tend to try to take the conservative view.

[daire]

If you check back the turn you can't rep much on the river that beats him. Your riverbet looks completely fos because all draws missed and you bet that turn 100% of the time for value with decent queens or sets.

After he donks that flop his range is never that strong. He should have sets very rarely. His range is basically queens and feck all else. If you fire that turn you rep sets, overpairs, strong queens, big draws and not much air(this turn is a bad card to barrell and the flop not a great one to raise bluff against a donkbet IMO), which he has shite equity against and if we assume he's decent, he should fold either the turn or river if we barrell. We're also not in awful shape against the top of his range (99, 33 and AQ, maybe Q9) as we have an over, gutter and flushdraw.

[Emmet]

Moral of the story, apply the pressure on the turn? As played check back river?

[daire]

Yeah I think so, I don't blame ya for having a pop on the river but if he's decent he should call you with 100% of the hands he called your flopraise with.

[Moneymaker]

Moral of the story, apply the pressure on the turn? As played check back river?

If there was any card on the river i'd fire on(barring Js, Ks and clubs of course), it'd be an ace, but i'd usually just give up after checking the turn. Betting turn and betting river, we rep AQ, KQ, 99, 33, Q9, KK, AA along with our missed draws and makes it very hard for him to call.

Digiman covered it pretty well I think.

[Mellor]

He is >200bbs deep, so we can assume he is a decent player.

Sorry, i wrote a lot in a bit of a rant here

In rush poker its the only way of determining anything about a player.

For instance, there was a guy sitting with 11buyins. No way was he not decent.

Way I see it, decent players will buy in for the maximum more often than below average players.

Decent players will double up more often than below average players. For him to hit 200bbs we assume he has either played one big hand and got his stack vs another 100bb player, or he has played many hands, and slowly worked his way up to 200bbs. Either way he must be ok.

With rush, you have to make a whole lot of assumptions, and base them on the averages. You could well be miles off course, and he may have sat in with 80bbs, and called an AI with 33 vs an AK and KK, and spiked a 3. But I tend to try to take the conservative view.

That's all nonsense. Stack size has no bearign on ability. It's true that on averge, good players are more likely to increase stack size. But assuming that only good players do is tripe. The difference is marginal.

also, assuming the guy with 11bbs just bought in for 11 is nonsense again, he more likely just lost them.


Why would you make these assumptions, you are better off treating them all as unknowns.


As for the hand bet turn, and then river

As played, I give on river having no bet the turn

[Emmet]

also, assuming the guy with 11bbs just bought in for 11 is nonsense again, he more likely just lost them.

11buyins = 1100bbs.

At 10nl, playing Rush poker, I always am more wary of the Bigger stacks.

Thanks for the thoughts on the hand. I've definitely played draws terribly in the past too so!

[Mellor]

11buyins = 1100bbs.

At 10nl, playing Rush poker, I always am more wary of the Bigger stacks.

Thanks for the thoughts on the hand. I've definitely played draws terribly in the past too so!

Sorry, speed read, thought you you said 11bbs, still I would assume he is good
some of the biggest stacks i've seen were donks who shipped everyhand and got lucky. then people start getting it in light to try double and stack off every few times

[jimbling]

Absolutely have to bet the turn in this hand. If not, just give up and check back the river as well.