Bad River Value Bet? e100nl

[ikilldurrr1]

He is playing 24/19 and 3b:11. Button is semi fishy.
Is the value bet too thin with the paired board?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($103)
BB ($146)
Hero ($106)
UTG+1 ($105)
CO ($113)
BTN ($80)

Dealt to Hero T:heart: J:heart:

Hero raises to $3.50, fold, fold, BTN calls $3.50, fold, BB raises to $13, Hero calls $9.50, fold

FLOP ($30) T:spade: 6:diamond: 6:spade:

BB checks, Hero checks

TURN ($30) T:spade: 6:diamond: 6:spade: 9:heart:

BB bets $15, Hero calls $15

RIVER ($60) T:spade: 6:diamond: 6:spade: 9:heart: J:diamond:

BB checks, Hero bets $30, BB calls $30

BB shows Q:diamond: Q:heart:
(Pre 82%, Flop 91.3%, Turn 95.5%)

Hero shows T:heart: J:heart:
(Pre 18%, Flop 8.7%, Turn 4.5%)

BB wins $117

[Emmet]

Surely you are playing this hand almost exclusively as a bluff catcher from the second you call the 3bet?

That means you are hoping for value from what exactly with your river bet? AJo? KJo?

I probably fold to the 3bet or as played, check behind the river. He either has it or he doesn't, and I can't find any hands that get to the river and call a half pot bet really?

That being said, I am pretty much not qualified to comment on 100nl.

[Theresa]

Eh fold preflop?

What semi competent player is gonna 3 bet an UTG raiser and a fishy BTN caller light? Probably the worst spot he could squeeze in AND your hand is muck.

As played check the river back.

[ikilldurrr1]

I was initially hoping to play a 3 way pot with the fishy guy on the btn and bb's widish range. On that flop I'm definitely in bluffcatch mode. Was planning on checking back river but felt weird doing it with top 2 considering he didn't cbet the flop.

[sligoboi]

The flop texture is a great one to bluff at as there's not much that can continue if you show strength. This is prob why he checked the flop so as to allow you a chance to bluff at it or catch up on turn.

[RoadSweeper]

Its a fold PF given we are in an awful position.

BB, if competent will squeeze here with a wide range given we should be folding so much and he can play a raised pot HU with initiative vs a fish.

[tipp86]

My stats are very similar to the villian in this hand and i can assure you its not a spot i 3 bet light in.

Calling is horrific i would actually prefer a 4 bet to 32 if you intend on playing the hand any further.

As played im not sure about the value bet i can really see the villian playing an overpair this way as betting hard on the flop leads to a big pot.

If he calls you on river i think he had qq-aa. I just check in this spot even tho i tend to throw out the thinest of value bets.

The value bet is not what you need to examine its your preflop tendencies that need to be looked at.

[tipp86]

Its a fold PF given we are in an awful position.

BB, if competent will squeeze here with a wide range given we should be folding so much and he can play a raised pot HU with initiative vs a fish.

Do you really think its an ideal spot to squeeze from BB would it not depend on villains stats

[Mellor]

Open fold pre
Fold to 3 bet
Check back river

[Line Us]

Do you really think its an ideal spot to squeeze from BB would it not depend on villains stats

Ya this is a typical squeeze spot for the BB, utg opens, button is flatting with a wide range putting dead money in the pot making the 3bet more profitable on its own and also gives him a chance to iso fish.Most utg's fold to 3bets 50 -70% so stats dont matter too much.

Not sure if I'd flat j10s here pre though with the button priced in to flat as well once you do. I like the thin river value bet though unlike others, it is pretty thin, looking for hero calls from some 9x,10x and jx he might have. I might even make it 20, check back is ok too but I'd imagine your ahead alot here given how the BB has played it.

[ikilldurrr1]

Thanks guys. So many different opinions that i'm still not sure. I would never ever consider open folding j10s from any position in 6max btw. Is my reasoning for wanting to play a multiway pot with the btn flawed? Is j10s not an ideal hand for that? It seems that my position sandwiched between the two players negates that?

I wish I hadn't put the result of the hand in as I feel it may have altered people's opinions on the river v bet. It may not be right but i think it is pretty close.

Thanks.

[digiman]

Depending on how fishy the btn is wether I call the 3b or not, if I though he was fishy enough to call then you played the hand well imo. JTs is as good a hand as any to call with here. The river is a defo value bet imo, but I think smaller is better as the range that you want him to call with is pretty small (the range that beats us is even smaller.) so $25 would be better.

[digiman]

Also, guys what stats do you play that you all think that JTs is a fold utg? 100nl is not that tough that you open fold JTs. You don't have to open it all the time but you should have it in your opening range unless you are playing very tight.

[Line Us]

Ya just to add that J10s is an open from utg with a weaker player at the table , definitely wouldnt open fold pre. The whole hand is fine I think anyway, the calling of the 3bet seems to be the only marginal spot but I think your point that it plays well multiway with a fish in the hand is right. I didnt spot the results when I replied first btw, had just scimmed over the hand but I'd say leave them out in furture alright, I think a few responses were result based. BB didnt play post too well either, surprised he didnt cbet QQ here on such a dry flop where he should be cbetting a decent ammount of his range anyway, seems bad.

[RoadSweeper]

My stats are very similar to the villian in this hand and i can assure you its not a spot i 3 bet light in.

I'm sure anyone could achieve the same stats as you but have completely different ranges. A 5% squeeze stat doesnt tell what 5% of hands are used to squeeze. You may squeeze with the top and bottom of your range (polarized) and someone else may squeeze just the top 5% of hands (linear)

That is why the term standard tag gets abused, what the hell is standard??

Do you really think its an ideal spot to squeeze from BB would it not depend on villains stats

Squeezing wider doesn't mean its light as such. I mean, BB can squeeze 88+ and most broadways which are obv bluffs vs the hero but play very well vs the fish. He is isolating the fish in a situation where utg has to fold so much and the fish calls with most of his range. Its a sickly profitable play imo.