Top Set facing river shove

[nuxxx]

I dont have the HH as im at work.

Villian was running around 16/14 over 500 hands and was slighty aggro, definately not passive. Havent seen him step out of line but the majority of hands hes played hes won without showdown.

Im sitting with 200bbs and he has around 150.(25NL)

Folded around to me OTB with JJand I raise to 1, he calls from SB.

Flop: Jx 10s 2s

Villian checks, hero bets 3/4 Pot, Villian calls.

Turn: 6s

Villian checks, I fire 3/4 pot again and he raises me to around 13.

I call.

River: 9h

Villian shoves.

Are we always beat here? Even if he didnt have a flush could he have been going mental with KQ? Could he have been slowplaying a smaller set? Could we call a big bet if he hadent of shoved?

[BlindLimper]

Assume u had JJ. What stakes is this. Id fold from the info given. He is a nit. Depends on stakes though.

[nuxxx]

Doh! Sorry.

I had JJ and it was 25NL

[sligoboi]

I dont have the HH as im at work.

Villian was running around 16/14 over 500 hands and was slighty aggro, definately not passive. Havent seen him step out of line but the majority of hands hes played hes won without showdown.

Im sitting with 200bbs and he has around 150.

Folded around to me OTB and I raise to 1, he calls from SB.

Flop: Jx 10s 2s

Villian checks, hero bets 3/4 Pot, Villian calls.

Turn: 6s

Villian checks, I fire 3/4 pot again and he raises me to around 13.

I call.

River: 9h

Villian shoves.

Are we always beat here? Even if he didnt have a flush could he have been going mental with KQ? Could he have been slowplaying a smaller set? Could we call a big bet if he hadent of shoved?

I folded the River

What did you have?

Seriously though what level is this? You raised to 1 pre so .10/.25? This also helps us give better informed answers.

My decision is dependant on how he's played hands in this situation before (btn vs sb) and if there's a dynamic developing.

The way I see it his range here is something like KQo (one being a spade), KQs, KJ, JQ, J9, J10, 9 10, 22, and a few suited connectors/1 gappers of spades. Haven't time to poker stove it but I'm sure you're in pretty good shape against that range.

Might want to take out the results aswell to give you better feedback.

[nuxxx]

No history to note between us

[sligoboi]

So the 500 hands were not during this session?

[nuxxx]

So the 500 hands were not during this session?

Nope. Only around 20/30 hands so far on this table. I raised around 50% of my buttons and this is the first time he called

Ill post the proper HH when i get home this evening.

[Line Us]

Yup fold river, unlikely he has worse now as every draw got there. Also he most likely reraises worse sets on the flop,he doesnt have any 2 pair combos in his range and he shouldnt be bluffing here often if ever so cant see any reason to call.

[Guest]

Yup fold river, unlikely he has worse now as every draw got there. Also he most likely reraises worse sets on the flop,he doesnt have any 2 pair combos in his range and he shouldnt be bluffing here often if ever so cant see any reason to call.

Awful advice.

[The Aul Switcharoo]

Awful advice.

How? In fairness he gave perfect advice to a hard spot...But god I hate folding top set

[Line Us]

The way I see it his range here is something like KQo (one being a spade), KQs, KJ, JQ, J9, J10, 9 10, 22, and a few suited connectors/1 gappers of spades. Haven't time to poker stove it but I'm sure you're in pretty good shape against that range.

I'd say your ranges are a bit off as a 16/14 wont have all those in their calling range from the sb. Definitely not QJ, J9, J10, 910 so stoving those probably wont accomplish much.

[handofgod]

I'd say your ranges are a bit off as a 16/14 wont have all those in their calling range from the sb. Definitely not QJ, J9, J10, 910 so stoving those probably wont accomplish much.

If he can't have these hands there are also very few flushes in his range. Like you say I'd expect him to raise sets on flop but I also expect him to raise fd sometimes. Without more info I'm not folding top set. Not sure whether I prefer getting it in on turn, but he certainly can show up with sets here and I doubt he plays kq this way unless he has ks

[Line Us]

If he can't have these hands there are also very few flushes in his range. Like you say I'd expect him to raise sets on flop but I also expect him to raise fd sometimes. Without more info I'm not folding top set. Not sure whether I prefer getting it in on turn, but he certainly can show up with sets here and I doubt he plays kq this way unless he has ks

So what does he have thats worse than us?

1010 and 22 sometimes( not often imo when he doesnt check raise the flop and does check raise the turn).
Air, very unlikely the way the board ran out and because we are 200bbs deep.

What beats us?

Flush draws, pretty likely as he wont be checkraising them on the flop this deep but will checkraise the turn.
KQo, not as likely he takes such a strong line as he will be afraid of us having the flush this deep.

[digiman]

So what does he have thats worse than us?

1010 and 22 sometimes( not often imo when he doesnt check raise the flop and does check raise the turn).
Air, very unlikely the way the board ran out and because we are 200bbs deep.

What beats us?

Flush draws, pretty likely as he wont be checkraising them on the flop this deep but will checkraise the turn.
KQo, not as likely he takes such a strong line as he will be afraid of us having the flush this deep.

Another reason he won't have sets as much. He's practically turning sets into a bluff here by shoving unless he knows that you call really light and making a thin value bet but I doubt many 16/14s at micro stakes do that. Straight forward fold imo

[Moneymaker]

I'd fold, then sitout and vomit for about a half an hour.

[nuxxx]

Thanks for the replies so far.

Does anyone think raising>calling his cr on the turn?

[handofgod]

So what does he have thats worse than us?

1010 and 22 sometimes( not often imo when he doesnt check raise the flop and does check raise the turn).
Air, very unlikely the way the board ran out and because we are 200bbs deep.

What beats us?

Flush draws, pretty likely as he wont be checkraising them on the flop this deep but will checkraise the turn.
KQo, not as likely he takes such a strong line as he will be afraid of us having the flush this deep.

I thought we were 150BB deep, in which case we are getting close to 2.5/1 on river(if Im wrong correct me)? If its 200BB deep I think its a fold

I think he can flat flop sometimes with a set,heros range is very wide. If he cant have hands like JT there are really four flushes in his range AQ,AJ,KQ, KJ (assuming hero doesnt have Js, and villain 3bets AK), does he always flat these pre and on flop? Its dependent on what you think he does with fds, KQ and sets (and also if he ever shows up with air), but I think its close if we are getting nearly 2.5/1.

Another reason he won't have sets as much. He's practically turning sets into a bluff here by shoving unless he knows that you call really light and making a thin value bet but I doubt many 16/14s at micro stakes do that. Straight forward fold imo

This is a good reason to fold, but it also assumes villain is adjusting correctly to being deep, which is not always the case.

[Moneymaker]

Thanks for the replies so far.

Does anyone think raising>calling his cr on the turn?

No because he folds all worse hands and shoves with better ones. And he's never folding a flush so we never get better to fold. Calling and praying for a board pair on the river is your only option on the turn imo.

[TommyGunne]

Yeah I fold river as well vs a nit, and vs a lot of other people that aren't nits too. The rest seems fine.