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    25nl river decision

    ok I grabbed this hand from 2+2. Sorry for dragging it over here but Im trying to start good discussion whatever because I want to improve etc. Now I suggested that checking behind here on the river is optimal and I got flamed by pretty much everyone on the thread. I just thought I'd post here to see if anyone agrees with me?

    No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    UTG ($30.22)
    MP ($27.38)
    Hero (Button) ($25)
    SB ($1.47)
    BB ($38.07)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with Kc Qd
    1 fold, MP calls $0.25, Hero bets $1.10, 2 folds, MP raises $1.70, Hero calls $0.85

    Flop: ($4.25) Kd, 3s, Qh (2 players)
    MP checks, Hero bets $3, MP calls $3

    Turn: ($10.25) Jc (2 players)
    MP bets $1, Hero raises $7.50, MP calls $6.50

    River: ($25.25) 8s (2 players)
    MP checks, hero??

    opponent 35/2

    #2
    you have almost 50% stack involved and a value bet is going to get called or shoved

    a shove by you is only going to get called by a better hand

    you have 'showdown' value so I just check here

    A10, JJ, QQ, KK, 33 well within range i think

    preflop I just limp button though

    not the best cash player so feel free to ignore

    Comment


      #3
      Well considering we only have $12.80 behind the only bet is a shove which I don't really like.

      The limp-raise pre scares me and the only hand we beat that does that is Aces. His bet sizing is ridic bad but with no other reads I prob check behind and take what's in the middle.

      I realise it's not winning the max but I'm happy with that in this situation.
      Pining for Wa'erford

      Comment


        #4
        I think by posting what I would have done is going to stagnant the discussion somewhat

        Comment


          #5
          Way the hand was played I'm putting him on a pocket pair below Queens or a pair of queens. Only hand in his range that has you beat on the river is trip jacks. I think I'm valuing betting and hoping to get called by 10's or QJ/AQ. I think AQ is the most likely hand after his call on the turn as he has the straight draw out making it hard for the average 25NL player to fold.

          Comment


            #6
            Easy shove, we have blockers to KK and QQ. He pretty much never has AT or 33. His value hands include AA and AK, both of which we beat. Checking behind is losing money imo.

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Bubbleking View Post
              I think by posting what I would have done is going to stagnant the discussion somewhat
              Not from me tbf..
              Pining for Wa'erford

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Fuzzy Logic View Post
                Easy shove, we have blockers to KK and QQ. He pretty much never has AT or 33. His value hands include AA and AK, both of which we beat. Checking behind is losing money imo.
                I meant to bring this point up with someone - I think I was listening to ae Jones say that for every blocker we have we reduce the likelihood of villain holding it by 5%? Is it fair to say that people get caught up with having blockers too much? yes I know it reduces the likelihood that he holds QQ/KK but they still make up a huge part of villains range

                Comment


                  #9
                  Not sure exactly what ae means tbh but obv there are now only 3 combos of KK and QQ, but 6 AA and 12 AK all of which may play this way. Most 25nlers will also shove the river for fear of you checking behind.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    There's 6 combos of every pocket pair. If we remove 1 card (3 left) there's 3 combos and if we remove 2 there's only 1 combo. By having KQ ourselves we reduce the possibility of him having KK/QQ by 66%.

                    I agree with FuzzyLogic; not shoving here is burning money. He shouldn't ever have JJ, AT or 33 really, even though his stats are fishy his limp/3betting range should be pretty small.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by daire View Post
                      There's 6 combos of every pocket pair. If we remove 1 card (3 left) there's 3 combos and if we remove 2 there's only 1 combo. By having KQ ourselves we reduce the possibility of him having KK/QQ by 66%.

                      I agree with FuzzyLogic; not shoving here is burning money. He shouldn't ever have JJ, AT or 33 really, even though his stats are fishy his limp/3betting range should be pretty small.
                      good post and it brings up some points I want to address. First of all yes he may be 66% less likely to have KK/QQ but given the context of the situation it is still a very likely scenario especially with the line he took.

                      on to the second point - he only raises 2% of hands therefore his limp raising range should be smaller but even if its the same at 2% that gives us AA, KK, QQ and JJ. so basically the only hand he can have that we beat is AA and looking at the way the hand played out I think thats the least likely holding tbh

                      Comment


                        #12
                        When we raise turn i think im seting up shove on river.
                        I would find it tough to raise turn and not shove river.
                        He plays his hand weird but i take your point that not sure what he pays you off with on river.
                        If he a big fish he mite have AQo,TT but difficult to say he would play them like that.
                        Looks like AA to me tbh or TT if he complete fish

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Bubbleking View Post
                          good post and it brings up some points I want to address. First of all yes he may be 66% less likely to have KK/QQ but given the context of the situation it is still a very likely scenario especially with the line he took.

                          on to the second point - he only raises 2% of hands therefore his limp raising range should be smaller but even if its the same at 2% that gives us AA, KK, QQ and JJ. so basically the only hand he can have that we beat is AA and looking at the way the hand played out I think thats the least likely holding tbh
                          Well if we take a limp/3bet range of AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK he has 12 combos of AK left, 6 combos of AA, 1 combo of KK, 1 combo of QQ and 3 of JJ (JJ is stretching to too, given he'll fold flop with it 99% of the time). We beat him more often than not in this scenario.

                          Even if we take out AK, we beat 6 combos of AA and lose to 5 combos of KK, QQ and JJ. It's still a profitable shove here. The blockers really do make all the difference in this situation.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Never post in start section but Villain check/shoves the flop with AA.
                            Last edited by sickhabbit; 20-07-10, 13:41. Reason: Well he should...

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Its difficult to say we have to estimate how often he plays AA this way or AKo.
                              And than how often he plays KK,QQ,JJ this way we can only do this w reads i think.
                              We cant say for sure 100% that he would or wouldnt c/shove flop w AA or c/c w KK,QQ,JJ.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Originally posted by paddyh1989 View Post
                                Its difficult to say we have to estimate how often he plays AA this way or AKo.
                                And than how often he plays KK,QQ,JJ this way we can only do this w reads i think.
                                We cant say for sure 100% that he would or wouldnt c/shove flop w AA or c/c w KK,QQ,JJ.
                                You are correct, but you will never be right 100% of the time. Run the math to see how much you do need to be right (hero has about 12$ behind) to make this a shove. It's a very odd line by villain but you cannot check behind here.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by sickhabbit View Post
                                  You are correct, but you will never be right 100% of the time. Run the math to see how much you do need to be right (hero has about 12$ behind) to make this a shove. It's a very odd line by villain but you cannot check behind here.
                                  Yeah your right whatever way you run the math your goning to have enough equity to make the shove +ev esp w Half PSB left

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Your logic for not betting the river is that you will only get called by a better hand. Not in this case, villian will feel pot committed and call with a weak holding IMO.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      This is a very very very simple shove.
                                      Looking for full or part time poker and betting writers. PM if interested.

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by ianmc38 View Post
                                        This is a very very very simple shove.
                                        cool, I disagree for the reasons Iv stated - I just thought it would be a good discussion hand

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Villain is retarded, you really are losing a ton of value long term from not shoving spots like this.

                                          Guys like him can definitely call with worse.
                                          Originally posted by ArmaniJeans
                                          I like this heat - some proper music innit.
                                          None of the 'black disabled lesbian warbling backwards' stuff that the other players inflicted on me.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            I think it's a pretty easy shove. Villains line is really bizarre and I doubt he ever shows up with better here.

                                            And like it's been said, we have blockers for KK and QQ, ergo easy shove.

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by TheDrunkenOne View Post
                                              you have almost 50% stack involved and a value bet is going to get called or shoved

                                              a shove by you is only going to get called by a better hand
                                              I dont know where you play poker, but this is simply not the case on any online poker site i've played on. There are tons of worse hands that can call here. In fact I expect to get called by worse kings and 2 pairs every day of the week here.

                                              Originally posted by TheDrunkenOne View Post
                                              you have 'showdown' value so I just check here
                                              A lone queen or a worse king is showdown value. Checking top 2 here is really terrible poker, even more so against a fish.
                                              Looking for full or part time poker and betting writers. PM if interested.

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Easy shove, I'd expect this villain to turn up with AJ and AQ quite a lot of the time here along with the times he has AA and AK, and we're very rarely beaten.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  shipship

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    What did he have?

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      results for people who keep spaming my inbox

                                                      SPOILER
                                                      villain had JJ but thats not the point

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        Impossible to even guess what a fish has in this situation, easy ship on the river.
                                                        "Don't overcomplicate a straight forward game with mathematical bullshit and dicussing different lines with your geeky friends" Chris Olaafson

                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Line Us View Post
                                                          Impossible to even guess what a fish has in this situation, easy ship on the river.
                                                          Yeah this. Stop trying to understand the fish. They don't understand themselves.
                                                          "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Bubbleking View Post
                                                            results for people who keep spaming my inbox

                                                            SPOILER
                                                            villain had JJ but thats not the point
                                                            What did the hero do?
                                                            Pining for Wa'erford

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Bubbleking View Post
                                                              First of all yes he may be 66% less likely to have KK/QQ but given the context of the situation it is still a very likely scenario especially with the line he took.

                                                              on to the second point - he only raises 2% of hands therefore his limp raising range should be smaller but even if its the same at 2% that gives us AA, KK, QQ and JJ. so basically the only hand he can have that we beat is AA and looking at the way the hand played out I think thats the least likely holding tbh
                                                              If you are including JJ-QQ in his range then you must also include AK imo. And his postflop line is check/call, gaybet/call,check. That is not a strong line! Also limp/minraise meh I play 25nl sometimes on stars and when a 30/2 does this its generally with a hand that has KQo dominated. I'm sort of assuming you or others have been isolating his limps and he has not done this before. Anyway super nitty pre but

                                                              Fold preflop

                                                              equity win tie pots won pots tied
                                                              Hand 0: 74.692% 74.26% 00.43% 457745784 2676768.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
                                                              Hand 1: 25.308% 24.87% 00.43% 153330120 2676768.00 { KQo }




                                                              Shove river

                                                              Board: Kh Qc 3d Js 8s
                                                              Dead:

                                                              equity win tie pots won pots tied
                                                              Hand 0: 26.316% 26.32% 00.00% 35 0.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
                                                              Hand 1: 73.684% 73.68% 00.00% 98 0.00 { KQo }


                                                              easypeasy

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                ALLIN

                                                                Originally posted by sickhabbit View Post
                                                                Never post in start section but Villain check/shoves the flop with AA.
                                                                What?
                                                                Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
                                                                  ALLIN



                                                                  What?
                                                                  Supposed to be a question... I mean mine was? Does he?

                                                                  Do you think he defo doesn't play AA this way?
                                                                  Last edited by sickhabbit; 22-07-10, 15:15.

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by sickhabbit View Post
                                                                    Do you think he defo doesn't play AA this way?
                                                                    Yes. Your edit of him saying "well he should" as well was what I was getting at. Its a grand spot to c/c AA to protect your c/c range there, but almost everyone would just bet anyway.
                                                                    Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                                                                    Comment

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