Is this a 100% fold?

[PokerNit]

Early in tournament, no notes on villain, is this a fold?

PokerStars Game #46469752981: Tournament #319010573, $50+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2010/07/07 20:17:48 WET [2010/07/07 15:17:48 ET]
Table '319010573 67' 9-max

Seat #1 is the button

Seat 1: M555SSM (2425 in chips)
Seat 2: Lagazzi (2730 in chips)
Seat 3: pokerowl1 (3000 in chips)
Seat 4: AAceForMe (3630 in chips)
Seat 5: 88DrugDealer (3110 in chips)
Seat 6: ME! (2780 in chips)
Seat 7: Barycenter (3420 in chips)
Seat 8: kidrounder (2940 in chips)
Seat 9: splitbiber (2965 in chips)
Lagazzi: posts small blind 15
pokerowl1: posts big blind 30

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to ME! [Qd Qs]

AAceForMe: raises 30 to 60
88DrugDealer: folds
ME!: raises 90 to 150
Barycenter: folds
kidrounder: calls 150
splitbiber: raises 2815 to 2965 and is all-in
M555SSM: folds
Lagazzi: folds
pokerowl1: folds
AAceForMe: folds
ME!: ???

[gorrrr72]

Not 100% no but it's close. It's AK suited a lot but also JJ 1010. If you play that tourney a lot and it's a fast structure I probably call. Without reads if it's a well structured tourney I probably puke-fold.

[Wesley Harms]

Dont fold here ever

[PokerNit]

It's the 90K guaranteed 8pm on Stars, 3K/15min blinds structure

[PokerNit]

Dont fold here ever

Why not?

[gorrrr72]

It's the 90K guaranteed 8pm on Stars, 3K/15min blinds structure

The DNG has a lot of satellite players that don't have a clue. As a default I probably call in this spot but being that they don't have a clue they are shoving KK and AA too so expect to see that sometimes. More often than not you are ahead though.

[Wesley Harms]

Why not?

All kinds of crazy things go on in the early stages of these tournaments. Your miles ahead here so much more than miles behind

[Ace]

what DNG stand for

[PokerNit]

what DNG stand for

Daily Ninety Grand

[PokerNit]

The DNG has a lot of satellite players that don't have a clue. As a default I probably call in this spot but being that they don't have a clue they are shoving KK and AA too so expect to see that sometimes. More often than not you are ahead though.

Yeah for sure there are a lot of poor players in these tournaments. My initial feeling was that he was 4bet shoving AA, KK or AK as poor a play as it seems.

[Starvin Marvin]

Your 3bet size is far too small, id be making it 240 here.
Call now, if he has a bigger overpair fyl.

[8611]

if he we presume he is in any way thinking rationally then we must assume he doesn't want a caller, which makes him most likely a smaller pair, sometimes AK

he only does this with AA KK if he is playing funky, and you'd need a specific read to be able to know he is playing funky. I suppose he might be thinking that with an UTG raise and reraise one of you has something you'll call with thinking he's spazzing.

so I think the default position is actually call, not fold

unless the $55 means a massive amount to you, in which case you shouldn't be playing the tournament in the first place

what I do in this situation (or used to do, haven't played online in ages) is click the extra time button and then go and do an OPR on him. if he's crap I'm calling, if he's a winner I'm folding

agree that raise pre is slightly too small, will also help inform your decision if you've showed more strength

BTW I think there's nothing massively wrong with folding here without reads

[danutpeddler]

Good point about OPR. I find that breakeven/winning players try to get full value from AA KK here alot from monkies who don't 3bet fold no matter how deep.

[Angry-Ball]

iam calling 100% of the time

i might fold if there was 2 allins ahead of me

[Caf]

I fold here without a solid read. The move is a lot stronger beacuse of a caller in front. You may be in front here but calling off this early is really bad imo. You are at best flipping.

OPR is great MTT's but will never give you a solid read so can't really be used imo as a read, just as a guide. I would defo not be relying on it for tourney life in this spot. Weaker players tend to bet big when strong from my experience. If this player is weak and rated 40% on OPR that does really mean sweet F all as to whether he 4bet shoves AA or 22 with a caller in front of him.

@starvin marvin and 8611: Why is the 3bet size too small? Making it 180 myself? I ask because it's highly likely you are right and don't want a flaw in my bet sizing.

[dannydiamond]

I'd 3 bet more and snap a shove.

[8611]

If this player is weak and rated 40% on OPR that does really mean sweet F all as to whether he 4bet shoves AA or 22 with a caller in front of him.

i think if he's clearly a losing a player, and essentially a recreational gambler, he's turning up with 77 / AJ kind of crap a lot here. playing AA KK badly is only a small part of the crappy bad plays he's likely to make here.

@starvin marvin and 8611: Why is the 3bet size too small? Making it 180 myself?

I think this early on too many people behind will come along for 150, as will the original caller. in this hand for example hero gets one other caller and a pusher and the original caller is still to act. once one lad calls the 150 they'll all come along for 'value'. we obv don't want to be three / four way with queens as some donk will catch something on the flop and prob catch the the balance on the turn / river, or at least put us to a tricky decision for a decent proportion of our chips.

also a more serious raise will better inform our decision on any reraise

also its the second level and standard betsizing, i.e. 2.5 BBs isn't really applicable. the UTG raise here is awful for instance, min open has to be 3BB+. minimum reraise has to be slightly bigger as a result

i dont think there's anything wrong with 180, in fact its prob the ideal amount here. personally I might go 210 as the 200 barrier will cause some kind of psychological alarm in the subsequent donk's minds

the question of when you do and don't want the alarm to go off in the subsequent donk's minds is not one i've quite reconciled myself with though...

[Caf]

Ye, that makes sense about the bet sizing. Just wanted to be sure that 180 wasn't a bad size to 3bet a min open raise. I'll prob make it more in future.

Imo the range is a lot stronger with this action and really feel it's a fold but a tough fold. Like has been said, there is a lot of weak players in these MTT's and for that reason I would find a better spot to be shoving 90 odd BB's into a pot.

[DrJFF]

its a weird one to a different 4bet size i fold without much thought,

but the shove is just meh/call and expect to see AK the most,

i don't think i 3bet pre, flat would be my default line here with no reads, but if i do 3bet i make at least 180-210,

the structure is decent in that tourney so a fold is not a bad option considering your equity is only 52% against a non retarded shoving range of AKs,AKoff and AA-TT

so if you figure you have a better edge fold if you believe that is the range your up against that is

[Mellor]

Not 100% no but it's close. It's AK suited a lot but also JJ 1010.

You said it's close then listed 3 hands we are +EV against????

I fold here without a solid read. The move is a lot stronger beacuse of a caller in front. You may be in front here but calling off this early is really bad imo. You are at best flipping.

What range do you put him on?
There is nothing wrong with calling off early if we are ahead.

[8611]

i don't think i 3bet pre, flat would be my default line here with no reads

really? why?

[PokerNit]

I did give it some thought but elected to fold the hand given I had no reads, notes or hands with the villain in question. Anyway 1 orbit later similar situation, same hand. I called only to run into KK.

PokerStars Game #46470163977: Tournament #319010573, $50+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2010/07/07 20:30:01 WET [2010/07/07 15:30:01 ET]
Table '319010573 67' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: M555SSM (2425 in chips)
Seat 2: Lagazzi (2995 in chips)
Seat 3: pokerowl1 (3520 in chips)
Seat 4: milenium605 (4110 in chips)
Seat 5: 88DrugDealer (3065 in chips)
Seat 6: ME! (2585 in chips)
Seat 7: Barycenter (3210 in chips)
Seat 8: kidrounder (1855 in chips)
Seat 9: splitbiber (2665 in chips)
milenium605: posts small blind 15
88DrugDealer: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ME! [Qh Qc]
ME!: raises 60 to 90
Barycenter: raises 3120 to 3210 and is all-in
kidrounder: folds
splitbiber: folds
M555SSM: folds
Lagazzi: folds
pokerowl1: folds
milenium605: folds
88DrugDealer: folds
ME!: calls 2495 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (625) returned to Barycenter
*** FLOP *** [Ad 2c 4s]
*** TURN *** [Ad 2c 4s] [Ah]
*** RIVER *** [Ad 2c 4s Ah] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ME!: shows [Qh Qc] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
Barycenter: shows [Kh Ks] (two pair, Aces and Kings)
Barycenter collected 5215 from pot
ME! finished the tournament in 1100th place

[DrJFF]

really? why?

its early on and people don't usually raise utg as wide as you think (this is very dependent on the first couple of orbits), in general i give people credit until they prove otherwise,

also it disguses are hand,

if it was a raise from mid position to late i 3bet all day long, its just really the early position raise and it sucks to get A) cold 4bet or B) 4bet by the original raiser,

i don't think you can profitably continue against either without solid reads,

by flatting we can flat any potential 3bets and pot control and stuff

[8611]

superuser account imo

re my logic above OPR says 2nd guy is actually a small winning player with some experience at decent stakes. one wonders how given this move - presumably he was just getting funky banking on some frustration on your behalf after the other guy has pushed over you the round prev. presumably you dwelled before folding then also, so he might have put you a bit tilty.

first guy a losing hi volume low stakes player.

so clearly you should have called the first guy's AJ and folded the second hand

[PokerNit]

re my logic above OPR says 2nd guy is actually a small winning player with some experience at decent stakes. one wonders how given this move - presumably he was just getting funky banking on some frustration on your behalf after the other guy has pushed over you the round prev. presumably you dwelled before folding then also, so he might have put you a bit tilty.

first guy a losing hi volume low stakes player.

so clearly you should have called the first guy's AJ and folded the second hand

Not quite, first guy was a winning player, well in 2010 anyway, 2nd guy was a losing player same period on Stars. Appreciate the input, cheers.

[8611]

its early on and people don't usually raise utg as wide as you think (this is very dependent on the first couple of orbits), in general i give people credit until they prove otherwise,

also it disguses are hand,

if it was a raise from mid position to late i 3bet all day long, its just really the early position raise and it sucks to get A) cold 4bet or B) 4bet by the original raiser,

i don't think you can profitably continue against either without solid reads,

by flatting we can flat any potential 3bets and pot control and stuff

interesting approach but I don't like it

you lose a lot of chips with QQ when either a weaker hand which should fold pre catches up or when you run into AA KK on a low flop

first situation is avoided by raising. you are more likely to avoid second situation by raising and having a better impression of the strength of their hand from their reaction to your raise

obv we are considering folding to a cold 4 bet or reraise from original raiser. but I don't see how flatting pre helps us here as we're going to lose more chips further down the line finding out.

flop comes out 10 high and they lead, what are you going to do? reraise, in which case you'll lose more than you would have if a preflop re-raise was snapped off? fold and lose a massive amount of value long term? call and put chips in with no idea of his holding and face another decision on turn?

added to the fact that flatting merely encourages people to take a more aggressive line against you further on means you're going to be put to a hard decision and bluffed off by lesser hands a lot more

I think you have to raise here. otherwise you're effectively set mining QQ, which is a waste of value

[scouser in dub]

its early on and people don't usually raise utg as wide as you think (this is very dependent on the first couple of orbits), in general i give people credit until they prove otherwise,

also it disguses are hand,

if it was a raise from mid position to late i 3bet all day long, its just really the early position raise and it sucks to get A) cold 4bet or B) 4bet by the original raiser,

i don't think you can profitably continue against either without solid reads,

by flatting we can flat any potential 3bets and pot control and stuff

I would ordinarily agree with this but with these stacks and villain min raising I think 3betting is fine as default. Like the chances of being flatted in lots of spots behind kinda makes min raising KK+ so much more unlikely and I think a lot of people min raising 100bb's deep do it in order to call and we then get to play IP a lot more than we do if we flat.

[8611]

Not quite

yeah, sorry, I got them the wrong way round thereby completly irresistably disproving my OPR argument

[DrJFF]

interesting approach but I don't like it

you lose a lot of chips with QQ when either a weaker hand which should fold pre catches up or when you run into AA KK on a low flop

first situation is avoided by raising. you are more likely to avoid second situation by raising and having a better impression of the strength of their hand from their reaction to your raise

obv we are considering folding to a cold 4 bet or reraise from original raiser. but I don't see how flatting pre helps us here as we're going to lose more chips further down the line finding out.

flop comes out 10 high and they lead, what are you going to do? reraise, in which case you'll lose more than you would have if a preflop re-raise was snapped off? fold and lose a massive amount of value long term? call and put chips in with no idea of his holding and face another decision on turn?

added to the fact that flatting merely encourages people to take a more aggressive line against you further on means you're going to be put to a hard decision and bluffed off by lesser hands a lot more

I think you have to raise here. otherwise you're effectively set mining QQ, which is a waste of value

the way the post flop goes is very board dependent, fyi i would play AA KK the same way as i just flat, i'm not saying its the best line but its a line i like and works for me,

post flop we can increase the range of hands that we get value from that would fold preflop to a 3bet so the chances of them out flopping you counters with the times they hit a medicore hand,

on a T high board like you mention, you get value from Tx hands or JJ or even midpairs and stuff,

i'm not afraid of getting tricky post flop,

however point below i do agree with that to the min raise is less likely of an opening range as tight and 3bet/isolating the player wil be the best option for most players

I would ordinarily agree with this but with these stacks and villain min raising I think 3betting is fine as default. Like the chances of being flatted in lots of spots behind kinda makes min raising KK+ so much more unlikely and I think a lot of people min raising 100bb's deep do it in order to call and we then get to play IP a lot more than we do if we flat.

valid point and it was something i consider but didn't say,


all this is pre antes too and i for one do be a lot less active pre antes which makes peoples 4betting ranges waaay tighter as well as their opening ranges

[Caf]

What range do you put him on?
There is nothing wrong with calling off early if we are ahead.

At the bottom of his range is AKs. More likely to be AA or KK imo.

You say, 'there is nothing wrong with calling off early if we are ahead.' How do you know we are ahead? To say that this move is weak because villain 4bet shipped is pretty lolworthy. We have no read on villain. Unless you have super human powers it's a fold imho!

So many better spots to get them in. I'm gona play this DNG and prove it to ya