The Open, St Andrews, 15/18 July

[kincsem]

In 2009 I backed young South African Thomas Aiken.
He finished eight, three shots behind Cink and Watson.
Aiken finished 6,4 against a par of 5, 4.

His form is ok, best finish 17th in PGA at Wentworth.
I'm assuming he is not injured so he is my choice again.


My 2010 bets

Bet_____Odds____Profit

€41.66___1000____€41,618.34
€3.62____620_____€2,240.78
€29.88___610____€18,196.92

€75.16__826.65___€62,056.04

[kincsem]

The Open starts next Thursday, 15th July. I've increased by bets.

All these players played 72 holes last year.
2009 finishing position [worst round] after my bets.

Zach Johnson_____190.0___€20.00___€3,780.00___47th in 2009 [77]
Soren Kjeldsen___260.79___€20.00___€5,195.80___27th in 2009 [76]
Thomas Aiken____826.65___€75.16___€62,056.04___8th in 2009 [72]
Steve Marino_____376.18___€20.00___€7,503.60___38th in 2009 [76]
Jeff Overton______232.2____€20.00___€4,624.00___13th in 2009 [76]

Jeff Overton, 27-y-o looks interesting.
He has four top three finishes in the USA in 2010.
13th in the British Open last year, four shots behind the winner,
and had two double bogeys in his 3rd round of 76.
Stats USA:
9th in putting; all round 14th; 12th in money; 20th in driving distance.

I have set up a lay of all these bets, starting at a much lower price than the odds I got.
e.g. I sell €20 at 80 of Thomas Aiken when his odds hit 80; €20 at 70; €20 at 60 and so on.
This means I don't need to keep tabs on all the five players all day for four days.

[BigDeal]

I've gone in big on Tiger here @ 6.8, think its real value, its a shotmakers course with wide fairways, should be ideal for him. He loves this place and won the last two opens here.
Tiger would have to shoot a really bad first round to drift out significantly, while any decent score will see his price tumble. I've done this for both the masters and US open this year and laid off for good profit both times.
I,ve got on now because I think he'll shorten before the off.
Also have a couple of small bets on Bubba Watson and Bradley Dredge, both at long odds and hitting the ball well recently.

[Insanodude]

Why is there less golf chat than usual?

[The Situation]

Why is there less golf chat than usual?

Same reason why there was very little Ascot and Wimbledon chat, World Cup takes precedence over every other sporting event every fouir years. Don't worry though it'll be well over come next Thursday so normal service will resume!

[kincsem]

All In

I've decided to make a complete fool of myself by putting more money on Thomas Aiken for the Open.
Today he shot 67 (equal best round today) in the Scottish Open for 73, 67 and a move from 99th to 14th.
No reaction in his price for the Open so I took all the 500+ prices.

Open, St Andrews
Thomas Aiken__663.81__€184.21__€122,096.89
Jeff Overton__237.46__€52.00__€12,295.90
Steve Marino__376.18__€20.00__€7,503.60
Davis Love III__470__€15.00__€7,035.00
Soren Kjeldsen__260.79__€20.00__€5,195.80
Zach Johnson__190__€20.00__€3,780.00

His rounds in the Open in 2008 and 2009
Blown out by 48 mph winds round 3, 2008.
2009__71_72_69_69
2008__75_71_82_68

[kincsem]

Mark Calcavecchia 1000 €16.00 €15,984.00

[eagle eye]

Same reason why there was very little Ascot and Wimbledon chat, World Cup takes precedence over every other sporting event every fouir years. Don't worry though it'll be well over come next Thursday so normal service will resume!

Its not just that but when you come onto the forum its been a pain trying to find a thread because the community games was taking over.

With the new adjustments on the forum it will improve things.

[BigDeal]

I've decided to make a complete fool of myself by putting more money on Thomas Aiken for the Open.
Today he shot 67 (equal best round today) in the Scottish Open for 73, 67 and a move from 99th to 14th.
No reaction in his price for the Open so I took all the 500+ prices.

Nothing foolish there, golfers in form FTW.
Mate of mine was at Adare, told me to back Clarke in scotland , he's hitting the ball beautifully, of course I didn't do it.

[BigDeal]

I've decided to make a complete fool of myself by putting more money on Thomas Aiken for the Open.
Today he shot 67 (equal best round today) in the Scottish Open for 73, 67 and a move from 99th to 14th.
No reaction in his price for the Open so I took all the 500+ prices.

Nothing foolish there, golfers in form FTW.
Mate of mine was at Adare, told me to back Clarke in scotland , he's hitting the ball beautifully, of course I didn't do it.

[The C Kid]

btw PP are paying 7 places this weekend.

Seven places and stand out price on Tiger, bookmakers get alot of stick, but credit where it's due. Super offer.

I have availed.

[TommyGunne]

btw PP are paying 7 places this weekend.

Will be raiding the back of the couch for spare funds. Wp PP.

[NewApproach]

Read this on their conditions of the offer

Dead-heat rules apply to players finishing tied for 6th and 7th places.

What does this mean exactly? Surely it's only a dead heat if they are tied. Does it mean that powers are really only paying out half of the 6th place and 7th place winnings, so in effect this isn't much of an offer. If not please let me know because I'm confused.

[The C Kid]

Read this on their conditions of the offer



What does this mean exactly? Surely it's only a dead heat if they are tied. Does it mean that powers are really only paying out half of the 6th place and 7th place winnings, so in effect this isn't much of an offer. If not please let me know because I'm confused.

Just the normal ties rule that applies to all places.

[Aya14]

Small win bets o/r on
Stricker @ 46
F.Anderson Hed @ 730
Z.Johnson @ 170
K.Na @ 800
hopefully I can trade out somewhat.

[EARMUFFS]

Woods at 11/2, Poulter at 33s, Furyk at 40s, Glover at 150 for me..think/hope Poulter will be best value at that price..

[The C Kid]

Tiger switching to a new putter for the first time in eleven years.

[paddyh1989]

Steve stricker 35/1 is playing well. Won in US last weekend. Also john daly could be a cheeky bet 125/1 has won at st.andrews before and played well at the scottish open.

[Aya14]

Steve stricker 35/1 is playing well. Won in US last weekend. Also john daly could be a cheeky bet 125/1 has won at st.andrews before and played well at the scottish open.

Stricker is 43/1 on betfair atm a full 8 points bigger, although pp are doin a special and paying 7 places.

Oddschecker is your friend.

heres the open markets

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/winner

[kincsem]

Betfair is addictive

Zach Johnson 190 €20.00 €3,780.00
Jeff Overton 237.46 €52.00 €12,295.90
Justin Leonard 370 €10.00 €3,690.00
Soren Kjeldsen 260.79 €20.00 €5,195.80
Davis Love III 470 €15.00 €7,035.00
Steve Marino 353.09 €40.00 €14,083.60
Thomas Aiken 663.81 €184.21 €122,096.89
Simon Khan 720 €20.00 €14,380.00
Yuta Ikeda 811.95 €15.00 €12,164.30
Thomas Levet 779.01 €15.00 €11,670.10
Mark Calcavecchia 1000 €16.00 €15,984.00

€407.21

[nicnicnic]

haven't really looked at it much but thought the 130s tim clark on betfair earlier in the week was stand out and had a bit of that.

I'm looking at garcia at 1oo/1 and possibly Rory

[DaKlowen]

All E/W, 7 places @PP ....

Clarke, Darren 80/1
Villegas, Camilo 80/1
Cabrera, Angel 100/1
Daly, John 125/1

GL GL GL

[Degag]

I've decided that Michelson @ 18s is too big to turn down.

Have smaller bets on

Furyk
Goosen
Duval
Gay
Glover
Curtis
Kelly

Also have a nostalgia bet on Watson

Backed far too many as usual of course but some decent value there i think.

Oh have a euro e/w on Goydos @ 300s after his 59 last week.

[The C Kid]

haven't really looked at it much but thought the 130s tim clark on betfair earlier in the week was stand out and had a bit of that.

I'm looking at garcia at 1oo/1 and possibly Rory

Thought Rory was an awful price myself. Hasn't really done much since Quail Hollow, and presume all the talk about his St Andrew's record is why he's so short, but he hasn't exactly lit up the Dunhill when sent off favourite. I mean I appreciate he has the potential but has he really done anything to justify second favouritism, not evenly remotely in my book. Plus he's still on my list of those who are likely to pull themselves up if in front for a bit longer anyway.

[The C Kid]

Boyles gone eight places today btw and 6s about Tiger.

[robinblinds]

http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100713/SPORTS90/7130330/-1/rss02

pointer for the winning score margins...

[jackthree]

looking at geoff ogilvy good price at 100-1, also ross fisher had top ten last week looks a good price at 50s, something tells me daly mite have a good run but not win it ,mccelroy although is not playin well he has a tremendouse record at st andrews. and of course tiger has won there the last two times so conclusion.

Ogilvy,woods,fisher,mccelroy

[CantonAA]

Tiger at 8/1 in PP today (Win Only). I took a slice of that and took a bit of Donald and Stricker - two players in form at the moment.

[NewApproach]

I've backed Ernie, Rose, Stricker, Schwartzel, Overton, JB Holmes and Thomas Aiken out of respect to kincsem. Have laid Mickelson, Westwood and McDowell.

If Tiger goes any bigger with the extra places ew I will probably back him ew too. Ironic the first ever ew bet I have in golf may be on the favourite!

[Liono]

Jiminez to win! 110/1
D Clarke Top 10 7/1
Kaymer Top 10 4/1
Fancy Casey and Rose to challenge.

Can't wait

[Guest]

Thought Rory was an awful price myself. Hasn't really done much since Quail Hollow, and presume all the talk about his St Andrew's record is why he's so short, but he hasn't exactly lit up the Dunhill when sent off favourite. I mean I appreciate he has the potential but has he really done anything to justify second favouritism, not evenly remotely in my book. Plus he's still on my list of those who are likely to pull themselves up if in front for a bit longer anyway.

I think he is ridiculously short as well but loves the course

He finished like a train(66) in France 2 weeks ago to finish 4th

could walk it but doesn't win enough for the price

[SpacedRoundUp]

Shane Lowry was 110/1 now 80/1
Stephen Gallacher 100/1
Peter Hanson 90/1

Good each way bets on Paddypower.......are showing some form in the last few weeks
and are well used to links play / bad conditions which are forecast.

[Aya14]

Small win bets o/r on
Stricker @ 46
F.Anderson Hed @ 730
Z.Johnson @ 170
K.Na @ 800
hopefully I can trade out somewhat.

Added top 10's for Poulter,Donald,Phil Mick and McIlroy and tiny win bets just in case they bink.
8 golfers if I get 2 in top 10 I'll be doing well

[eagle eye]

Thought Rory was an awful price myself. Hasn't really done much since Quail Hollow, and presume all the talk about his St Andrew's record is why he's so short, but he hasn't exactly lit up the Dunhill when sent off favourite. I mean I appreciate he has the potential but has he really done anything to justify second favouritism, not evenly remotely in my book. Plus he's still on my list of those who are likely to pull themselves up if in front for a bit longer anyway.

Generally Irish golfers are shorter than they should be for the Open and its because most of them were brought up on links golf, competed on the European Amateur scene on links courses and have a better record in the Open than any other major.

The thing about St Andrews is that the majority of top golfers do well there.

Rory is very short for this but the guy has the game for this course. Its a course where you need every shot in the bag and he has the lot. This is the very reason that Tiger has won there twice.

Since 1970 the Open has been held there on 7 occasions.

The winners of those are Tiger x 2, Nicklaus x 2, Nick Faldo, Seve Ballesteros and John Daly.

Daly is the wildcard there but its been the top golfers on the planet every other time.

Right now the World no.1 is not at his best. We don't know when he will resume his winning ways but you certainly couldn't rule it out happening here.

I haven't backed anybody yet but my list is
Woods, Els, Westwood, McIlroy, Poulter, McDowell, Harrington, Clarke and Garcia.

I still have to chop that list down a bit. I'll probably do whoever remains bar Tiger in the w/o Tiger market.

[Silver-Tiger]

Big on Tiger win

Medium e/w on

L.Donald
F.Molinari
R.Fisher
P.Harrington

Small e/w on

S.Garcia
S.Gallagher
D.Duval
O.Wilson

VCs 4/1 on an English winner is a super bet imo. Its sure to give ya a sweat on Sunday afternoon.

[The C Kid]

Generally Irish golfers are shorter than they should be for the Open and its because most of them were brought up on links golf, competed on the European Amateur scene on links courses and have a better record in the Open than any other major.

The thing about St Andrews is that the majority of top golfers do well there.

Rory is very short for this but the guy has the game for this course. Its a course where you need every shot in the bag and he has the lot. This is the very reason that Tiger has won there twice.

Since 1970 the Open has been held there on 7 occasions.

The winners of those are Tiger x 2, Nicklaus x 2, Nick Faldo, Seve Ballesteros and John Daly.

Daly is the wildcard there but its been the top golfers on the planet every other time.

Right now the World no.1 is not at his best. We don't know when he will resume his winning ways but you certainly couldn't rule it out happening here.

I haven't backed anybody yet but my list is
Woods, Els, Westwood, McIlroy, Poulter, McDowell, Harrington, Clarke and Garcia.

I still have to chop that list down a bit. I'll probably do whoever remains bar Tiger in the w/o Tiger market.

I have laid five on your list, least one of us will have a good week. Good luck.

[kincsem]

This is getting out of hand.

Zach Johnson 190 €20.00 €3,780.00
Jeff Overton 237.46 €52.00 €12,295.90
Justin Leonard 370 €10.00 €3,690.00
Soren Kjeldsen 293.86 €30.00 €8,785.80
Davis Love III 470 €15.00 €7,035.00
Steve Marino 346.09 €86.00 €29,677.60
Thomas Aiken 663.81 €184.21 €122,096.89
Simon Khan 720 €20.00 €14,380.00
Yuta Ikeda 780.98 €30.00 €23,399.30
Thomas Levet 779.01 €15.00 €11,670.10
Jose Manuel Lara 1000 €36.93 €36,893.07
Mark Calcavecchia 1000 €51.00 €50,949.00
€550.14

Unfortunately, Thomas Aiken will be out in the worst of the weather tomorrow Thursday as he has a 15:04 tee time.

I've put a bit more on Steve Marino 06:30; Thomas Levet 06:30 Thursday tee times. If they get in with a good score and the late starters are blown away then I can trade out.

Tiger Woods as always gets a good tee time just after 9 a.m. for the start of the BBC coverage.

Others who might get a goodish weather run are Mark Calcavecchia 11:41 (and 06:30 Friday); Jeff Overton (11:52; 06:41).

A good weather site for wind forecasts is http://www.windfinder.com/weatherforecast/leuchars
for St Andrews / Leuchars (RAF airport iirc).

For those too lazy to look it up -

Thursday wind in knots
07h 08h 09h 10h 11h 12h 13h 14h 15h 16h 17h 18h 19h 20h 21h
3kn 3kn 4kn 4kn 5kn 5kn 6kn 8kn 10kn 14kn 16kn 15kn 15kn 16kn 18kn

Friday wind in knots
07h 08h 09h 10h 11h 12h 13h 14h 15h 16h 17h 18h 19h 20h 21h
6k 8k 11k 15k 14k 19kn 20kn 20kn 21kn 20kn 20kn 19kn 20kn 19kn 19kn

[BigDeal]

I'm on...

Tiger @ 6.8 and 7............now @ 7.4
Ross Fisher @ 55
Bubba Watson @ 320 ........now @ 190
Shane Lowry @ 240..........now @ 140
Bradley Dredge @ 470........now @ 310

but I'm in big on Tiger, he's gotta hit the ground running, let me lay some off.

[Guest]

Done with Paddy for the 7 places
Pod 2pts ew

.5 ew on
Ryan Moore 125/1
*& again Ryan Moore 110/1
Gallagher 100/1
Bubba 150/1
Choi 80/1 (8 places with Boyles)

looks like Choi and Bubba will need their thermals on

in good old USofA

Rollins 2pts ew
defending champ, solid form all season

1euro doubles all round

gl

[NewApproach]

This is getting out of hand.

Zach Johnson 190 €20.00 €3,780.00
Jeff Overton 237.46 €52.00 €12,295.90
Justin Leonard 370 €10.00 €3,690.00
Soren Kjeldsen 293.86 €30.00 €8,785.80
Davis Love III 470 €15.00 €7,035.00
Steve Marino 346.09 €86.00 €29,677.60
Thomas Aiken 663.81 €184.21 €122,096.89
Simon Khan 720 €20.00 €14,380.00
Yuta Ikeda 780.98 €30.00 €23,399.30
Thomas Levet 779.01 €15.00 €11,670.10
Jose Manuel Lara 1000 €36.93 €36,893.07
Mark Calcavecchia 1000 €51.00 €50,949.00
€550.14

Unfortunately, Thomas Aiken will be out in the worst of the weather tomorrow Thursday as he has a 15:04 tee time.

I've put a bit more on Steve Marino 06:30; Thomas Levet 06:30 Thursday tee times. If they get in with a good score and the late starters are blown away then I can trade out.

Tiger Woods as always gets a good tee time just after 9 a.m. for the start of the BBC coverage.

Others who might get a goodish weather run are Mark Calcavecchia 11:41 (and 06:30 Friday); Jeff Overton (11:52; 06:41).

A good weather site for wind forecasts is http://www.windfinder.com/weatherforecast/leuchars
for St Andrews / Leuchars (RAF airport iirc).

For those too lazy to look it up -

Thursday wind in knots
07h 08h 09h 10h 11h 12h 13h 14h 15h 16h 17h 18h 19h 20h 21h
3kn 3kn 4kn 4kn 5kn 5kn 6kn 8kn 10kn 14kn 16kn 15kn 15kn 16kn 18kn

Friday wind in knots
07h 08h 09h 10h 11h 12h 13h 14h 15h 16h 17h 18h 19h 20h 21h
6k 8k 11k 15k 14k 19kn 20kn 20kn 21kn 20kn 20kn 19kn 20kn 19kn 19kn

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but surely the tee time and weather they experience on Thursday is over emphasised, as the swap around for the Friday?

[The C Kid]

Done with Paddy for the 7 places
Pod 2pts ew

.5 ew on
Ryan Moore 125/1
Gallagher 100/1
Bubba 150/1
Choi 80/1 (8 places with Boyles)

looks like Choi and Bubba will need their thermals on

in good old USofA

Rollins 2pts ew
defending champ, solid form all season

1euro doubles all round

gl

Ryan Moore was best price of the week imo.

[Guest]

Ryan Moore was best price of the week imo.

Was on him when he finished second to Rose a few weeks ago,
see no reason to desert him

had no interest in lumping on though as im not going heavy this week

might put more on after second/third round

*just stuck another .5ew on him at 110/1
he should be a lot shorter imo

[The C Kid]

Biggest opening position in a golf tournament ever for me.

I was going to do a big preview but am lazy, and honestly think Tiger will win. Am quietly confident. And most of my market positions reflect this.

Greens
- Tiger
- Ryan Moore
- Soren Hansen
- Thongchai Jaidee
- Zach Johnson
- Dustin Johnson
- Camillo Villegas

Reds
- Poulter
- McIlroy
- Westwood
- Clarke
- Stricker
- Rose
- Mickelson

Gonna be epic, just hopefully don't do my brains like first two days last year, before limiting the damages somewhat over the weekend. Good luck all.

[The C Kid]

Last minute adding of Stenson and Schwartzel to the stable.

Good luck all!

[Starvin Marvin]

11 hours solid on BBC HD, nice.

Going to have to invest in some wagers now, hmm who to follow.

[kincsem]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but surely the tee time and weather they experience on Thursday is over emphasised, as the swap around for the Friday?

The latest forecast (22:54 local time) shows good (light breeze) for the early starters tomorrow.

The draw "should" even out the weather but often doesn't.

Some of my nags

The first two above get the best of Thursday and a couple of hours of the least nasty on Friday (from forecast).

[Lplate]

I'm no expert on golf. However, it strikes me that Ernie must be a good bet at 20's (Laddies). Eight top ten finishes in last ten years in Open Championships shows he can handle links. Two 1st place finishes this year shows he is back to his best. Third in US Open reinforces that. Missed cut in Scottish but is a big game player and that taken as a warm up for me. Also on Matt Kuchar at 100, only because I think he'll win a major sometime and want to be on when it happens.

[NewApproach]

[Denny Crane]

just tiger and choi for me.

[NewApproach]

Just saw on betfair there than my current profit on Rose less comm is €666.66

Will have to lay off a few cent imo

[eagle eye]

I'm no expert on golf. However, it strikes me that Ernie must be a good bet at 20's (Laddies). Eight top ten finishes in last ten years in Open Championships shows he can handle links. Two 1st place finishes this year shows he is back to his best. Third in US Open reinforces that. Missed cut in Scottish but is a big game player and that taken as a warm up for me. Also on Matt Kuchar at 100, only because I think he'll win a major sometime and want to be on when it happens.

Always thought Kuchar would be a big time pro but he has failed to live up to expectations so far. He is actually only hitting his golfing prime now though as is McDowell.

Between your comments and my reaction I'm talking myself into having a small bet on him.

[eagle eye]

Heres hoping. All in the w/o Tiger market bar Tiger obv. Just got them all on before 6.30. Missed out on Tom Watson who I'm gonna add as soon as a decent price comes up. I'm gonna back all these in the top 10 market too except Tiger.

Rory McIlroy 15 €100.00 €1400.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Ernie Els 17 €80.00 €1280.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Lee Westwood 25 €60.00 €1440.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Padraig Harrington 22.34 €70.00 €1494.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Ian Poulter 27.04 €60.50 €1692.80
Ref: Bet matched:
Graeme McDowell 32 €60.50 €2015.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Darren Clarke 70 €30.00 €2070.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Matt Kuchar 110 €30.00 €3270.00
Ref: Bet matched:
€500.00

Tiger Woods 7 €200.00 €1200.00
Ref: Bet matched:
€200.00

[eagle eye]

No live coverage yet. Just watching a pregame show on the beeb behind the red button and I'm gonna back Justin Rose as well now. He really impressed me in that interview, the confidence running through him was almost frightening. I really liked what he had to say.

[eagle eye]

I'm gone mad on this thing. Added John Daly before he tee'd off, he birdies the first.

I'm finished now for the weekend. Its all about greening up for here on in.

So thats Justin Rose, Tom Watson and Wild Thing added to my list.

[eagle eye]

Daly -2 after 2 now.

[eagle eye]

[careca]

Thats a handy app EE, where did you get it?

Also, anyone a good online link for golf?

[The C Kid]

Are you going to post everytime one of your players makes a birdie?

[eagle eye]

Are you going to post everytime one of your players makes a birdie?

No was just a bit excited earlier on with it having started and all.

@ Careca

http://scoring.opengolf.com/flash_console/scoring_console.sps

Just flag who you want and then click flag at the top and it brings them all to the top of the page.

Online link.

http://www.atdhe.net/20420/watch-the-open-championship

[careca]

Excellent, thanks a lot.