400bb deep with a set, toughest river spot for me ever!!!

[digiman]

$1/$2 Ante $0.40 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($810.95)
UTG+1 ($517.80)
CO ($485.40)
BTN ($507.25)
SB ($909)
BB ($500)

Pre-Flop: ($5.40, 6 players) Hero is UTG 7:spade: 7:diamond:
Hero raises to $6.40, UTG+1 calls $6, CO calls $6, BTN calls $6, SB raises to $36.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $30, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, BTN folds

Flop: 10:club: 7:club: A:diamond: ($95.20, 2 players)
SB bets $64, Hero calls $64

Turn: 4:heart: ($223.20, 2 players)
SB bets $166, Hero calls $166

River: Q:heart: ($555.20, 2 players)


Ok, was really lost here. I have very rarely played this deep before and even when I have I never really got into such a spot. Villan is a reg on PS, not sure if people give out names here or not? I don't play here much at all so villan would have no reads on me and I have none on him at all. All I have to go on were the stats on my HUD. He was playing 23/18 with a 3b of 9.3% over 119 hands, his cbet was 100% over 7 hands andturn he had not barreled so far.

From PTR, villan is a 1.75BB winner over 400k hands at 1/2 and 1.5BB/100 winner at 2/4 over 80k hands so I presume hes decent enough.

Problem is with some of the questions I am asking here are tough to answer without people knowing who villan is or loads more stats/reads but feck it I'll ask them anyway. So 3 river scenarios.

1: Villan shoves, my question would be does he shove TT here or even AA? Its much more likely for me to have the nuts than I do right?

2: Villan checks, I bet $120. Like/dislike? The villan shoves

3: Villan bets $175, is there a spew moment in anyone?


Also do people ever want to try and get it in on the flop, does all the money ever go in good?

[gorrrr72]

I don't play much cash but I dont' think the money can go in good very often against a decent reg.

I think he can have AcKc or AcQc very often which he shouldn't stack off with on the river now. I think I would be afraid of KcJc too though.

Tbh I probably never fold a set if I think he can't have a straight. If I'm only afraid of the overset then I go with it because you just don't run into it often enough imo.


Answer to all 3 questions is to call, I won't reraise in option 3.

[colquhom]

I don't play much cash but I dont' think the money can go in good very often against a decent reg.

I think he can have AcKc or AcQc very often which he shouldn't stack off with on the river now. I think I would be afraid of KcJc too though.

Tbh I probably never fold a set if I think he can't have a straight. If I'm only afraid of the overset then I go with it because you just don't run into it often enough imo.


Answer to all 3 questions is to call, I won't reraise in option 3.

Just call river if he bets i think, bet fold if he checks, however i really don't ever expect to get check raised if he does check. I mean he's hardly gonna 3ball your utg open with kj 800bbs deep oop is he? I certainly hope not.

Oh, i'd prob fold if he overbet jams.

[digiman]

Just call river if he bets i think, bet fold if he checks, however i really don't ever expect to get check raised if he does check. I mean he's hardly gonna 3ball your utg open with kj 800bbs deep oop is he? I certainly hope not.

Oh, i'd prob fold if he overbet jams.

TBH, i doubt hes got KJ here much as its unlikely he 3bets such a hand when hes gonna be OOP to probably a host o players who are all deep, especially if I decide to call it could be a snowball affect. I think I am much more likely to have KJcc than he is also and would probably take this line with it.

Does anyone think he bets the river here with AA?

[tipp86]

This is a major ouch hand.

1. i def fold i think i mean he has you down as an unknown so guess he feels you can call him with ak, 2 pair etc.... this assuming he has 1010 AA.

2. Such a weird way for him to play it imo. I still fold.

3. No spew just call

He seems a decent reg so i assume he is not getting fancy. The only way you are ahead imo is if he bets small on the river like option 3. Played this way i guess he can turn up with AQ or AK even tho i dont think he double barrels this deep with this hand. I feel he might check the turn in a pot control move.

[gorrrr72]

TBH, i doubt hes got KJ here much as its unlikely he 3bets such a hand when hes gonna be OOP to probably a host o players who are all deep, especially if I decide to call it could be a snowball affect. I think I am much more likely to have KJcc than he is also and would probably take this line with it.

Does anyone think he bets the river here with AA?

Definitly, he wants value from AK, AQ and undersets and I suppose he can fold to a shove. I can't see him checkraising with AA because too many hands he beats check behind.
Maybe if he's nitty he check calls but for that he would have to put you on exactly KcJc.

[digiman]

Definitly, he wants value from AK, AQ and undersets and I suppose he can fold to a shove. I can't see him checkraising with AA because too many hands he beats check behind.
Maybe if he's nitty he check calls but for that he would have to put you on exactly KcJc.

I have $545 left, he would have to be betting really small here if he was going to fold to a shove. I'm not 100% certain he bets AA here, KJ is very likely in my range, my range to get here is going to be really tight and much tigher again if hes got AA in his hand, with card removal its pretty hard for me to have an A in my hand also.

[Guest]

Interesting hand and it is a tough spot if he shoves its a difficult hand to fold but yeah i fold to the overbet jam as well but i firmly believe your only losing to AA and TT don't think he has KJ of clubs alot of the time i think he more than likely has a hand like AcKc or AcQc like suggested above and if im in his spot with AcQc im always value betting

I really think that against a profitable 1 2 reg I'm raising on the flop to be honest because at least by raising not only do you take control of the pot but you get a clearer idea of his hand range flatting on 2 streets I think just leaves you with a tougher decision.

[carlop]

Given how deep it is, do we think a competent villain is 3betting 10s here pf oop? Or AQs for that matter?

[gorrrr72]

Given how deep it is, do we think a competent villain is 3betting 10s here pf oop? Or AQs for that matter?

Depends on dynamics, 6-max AQ and 10's reraise could be standard for that particular player. I wouldn't rule it out.

[carlop]

Depends on dynamics, 6-max AQ and 10's reraise could be standard for that particular player. I wouldn't rule it out.

400bbs deep though and oop it just seems like it puts you in a world of pain post-flop.

[Denny Crane]

i was thinking that too, qq too, but he has been 3betting a lot at that table

All I have to go on were the stats on my HUD. He was playing 23/18 with a 3b of 9.3% over 119 hands, his cbet was 100% over 7 hands andturn he had not barreled so far.

[gorrrr72]

400bbs deep though and oop it just seems like it puts you in a world of pain post-flop.

Not saying it's right or wrong, just that I wouldn't rule it out.

[Teddie]

I have $545 left, he would have to be betting really small here if he was going to fold to a shove. I'm not 100% certain he bets AA here, KJ is very likely in my range, my range to get here is going to be really tight and much tigher again if hes got AA in his hand, with card removal its pretty hard for me to have an A in my hand also.

Why wouldn't he bet A's on the river? It seems really bad for him to check, unless he's bluff catching. 6 combos of sets and only 1 of KcJc. It's also far more likely you called with small pocket pairs then KcJc.

1. As I said he should bet here, he'll get value from under sets and AQ and possibly AT. Depends on how he sees you.

2. I'd make it $80. he'll call with AQ and possibly AK.

3. He's never folding a set.

[Hectorjelly]

Not saying it's right or wrong, just that I wouldn't rule it out.

exactly, I hate when people reply with what they would do if they were the villain and their reasons, its irrelevant. Plenty of regs will 3bet TT here, plenty won't.


I'm pretty much never folding here, not in a 3 bet hand against anyone remotely aggressive

[Moneymaker]

Isn't our hand very under repped here?

I'm calling any bet also. Hating life if he shoves but i'd still call. I can't see him showing up with KJ here.

[TommyGunne]

1. No way he's not shoving either of those hands. 44 would be interesting imo.
2. I like and fold.
3. God no. No way you fold better. People will just tank and hero the TT. Just call and win monies lots of the time.

[Line Us]

1. No way he's not shoving either of those hands. 44 would be interesting imo.
2. I dislike and bet a normal ammount.
3. God no. No way you fold better. People will just tank and hero the TT. Just call and win monies lots of the time.

I only disagree wit ya on the bolded. Never bet small here, villian will check call with AK(most likely value hand)/AQ too often to bet small. Cant see us inducing something crazy here either and also no need to balance for bluffs so just bet for value only because its a pretty unique spot that is unlikely to happen again if ever.

[digiman]

So villan actually checked the river. I really didn't know what to do or bet on this river. I actually timebanked and used another 30s or so. I was very confused and wasn't sure if he would call with a worse hand and was a small bit afraid of me value towning myself here also. I actually bet $120 and villan folded. I think I am starting to come around to line-us thinking and a bigger bet would have been better here as if he thinks I am bluffing hes calling a bigger bet anyway. Like if I bet $325 here he probably calls just as often as when I bet $120.

[gorrrr72]

So villan actually checked the river. I really didn't know what to do or bet on this river. I actually timebanked and used another 30s or so. I was very confused and wasn't sure if he would call with a worse hand and was a small bit afraid of me value towning myself here also. I actually bet $120 and villan folded. I think I am starting to come around to line-us thinking and a bigger bet would have been better here as if he thinks I am bluffing hes calling a bigger bet anyway. Like if I bet $325 here he probably calls just as often as when I bet $120.

Checking to you with any hand that beats you is pretty bad so betting a normal amount makes sense.
Checking to you to induce a bluff isn't ideal either because he probably knows that you know that he's check calling most bets.
That leaves checking for pot control or checking/giving up. Both good enough reasons for you to bet a normal amount.