€1/2 Standard stuff?

[digiman]

Played this hand early this morning, I was 14-15 tabling at the time, basically on every table going from 100-200nl on ipoker and was with villan on quite a few of them with me. I was playing pretty tight, along the lines of 17/15 which is a hell of a lot tighter than I normally play (if hes got datamined hands its probably more like 26/21).

Villan is a losing player overall on a huge sample so is probably a rakeback grinder:

Stakes Hands Winnings Winrate
$1/$2 NLH SH 166,154 $-14,216 -2.14
$2/$4 NLH SH 115,740 $18,048 1.95
$5/$10 NLH SH 46,379 $-20,155 -2.17

My stats have him playing at 22/16 over 17k hands, his fold to cbet per street is 52/33/35. I think my play on each street is fine on flop, okish on turn given that he doesn't seem to fold much and well the river is were I am not totally sure off.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($264)
Hero ($355.25)
CO ($271.06)
BTN ($263)
SB ($372.65)
BB ($173.83)

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1 A:diamond: 7:diamond:
1 fold, Hero raises to $6, CO calls $6, BTN calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: 10:heart: 9:heart: A:spade: ($21, 3 players)
Hero bets $15.75, CO calls $15.75, BTN folds

Turn: 8:spade: ($52.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $40, CO calls $40

River: 6:spade: ($132.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $100, CO goes all-in $209.31, Hero folds

Final Pot: $441.81

CO wins $438.81 (net +$167.75)

Hero lost $161.75
BTN lost $6


There are quite a few river options really.

Check/Call
Check/raise
Bet/Call
Bet/fold

I went for the last one and will discuss after some replies

[DeadParrot]

your hand strength is massively disguised, given his line I bet/call everytime.

[digiman]

your hand strength is massively disguised, given his line I bet/call everytime.

My relative hand strenght isnt that strong here though so not sure this makes a differnce, plus the backdoor flush getting here as well doesnt help.

[DeadParrot]

My relative hand strenght isnt that strong here though so not sure this makes a differnce, plus the backdoor flush getting here as well doesnt help.

tbh I'd discard the bd flush as a likely holding here.
Hi play doesn't really warrant it imo.
your only worries is strangely played JQ so far as I can see.
Surely a made straight on the turn raises to get value from a FD?
or am I level 1 thinking here?

[digiman]

tbh I'd discard the bd flush as a likely holding here.
Hi play doesn't really warrant it imo.
your only worries is strangely played JQ so far as I can see.
Surely a made straight on the turn raises to get value from a FD?
or am I level 1 thinking here?

I think there are lots of spade hands in his range here, hands like KJss, KQss, TJss, J9s, QTss, Q9ss. I wouldn't really expect him to raise a straigh on the turn here, we are not that deep either so he doesn't really need to raise the turn here.

[Aya14]

A check/call is better option than bet/fold.
Really I bet/call here every time.

[digiman]

A check/call is better option than bet/fold.
Really I bet/call here every time.

What do you think hes betting for value here that I beat and what do you think he turns into bluffs here?

[Closed_Account]

Digiman your a very weird dude imo.

[Aya14]

What do you think hes betting for value here that I beat and what do you think he turns into bluffs here?

You say he doesnt fold much on turn so he is likely to continue with any heart draw in particular Ah Xh. Like you said you cant rule out backdoor flushes a lot of those hand combo are possibly hearts too which miss, KhJh KhQh.
Theres also the possibilty he is turning 2 pair into a bluff here but he would raise that turn.

[digiman]

You say he doesnt fold much on turn so he is likely to continue with any heart draw in particular Ah Xh. Like you said you cant rule out backdoor flushes a lot of those hand combo are possibly hearts too which miss, KhJh KhQh.
Theres also the possibilty he is turning 2 pair into a bluff here but he would raise that turn.

Would a reg who has played like over 300k hands at from 200-1knl really try and make someone fold here when they are getting 4:1? I just used to call here quite a lot and I don't remember seeing worse hands!!

[Aya14]

Would a reg who has played like over 300k hands at from 200-1knl really try and make someone fold here when they are getting 4:1? I just used to call here quite a lot and I don't remember seeing worse hands!!

That is an interesting thought but I think the answer is yes.

[colquhom]

Yeah nh I think. Doubt with your betsizing he even jams a 7 or maybe even qj on the river. Its also really hard for him to have a except or 87 suited. Fold looks good. Also, we'll have a load of flushes to call with here so I wouldn't really worry about it.

And I don't think losing/be regs decide to turn made hands into bluffs and rep bd fds that much.

[Maloney]

Would a reg who has played like over 300k hands at from 200-1knl really try and make someone fold here when they are getting 4:1? I just used to call here quite a lot and I don't remember seeing worse hands!!

Think this is key here, in saying that im a bad player and just click call.

[Shakes]

I think bet fold is correct here given stats on opponent.

I'm new to this analysis malarky but I would imagine the flop hits most of his range and alot of the time he will have two pair/sets at the river which he will call your bet as your hand seems under repped and there is little to no value for raising these hands on the river.

So if he doesnt bluff with these hands then he is only ever raising for value in which case the fold looks good.

[BuChan]

i think bet folding is good as played, maybe just check the turn though.

[pok3rplaya]

Before we bet I give him QJss, KQss, JTss, KJss in his flush range. Then he has 78s, 79s, A7s and random hearts with sevens in them for his straights. Then AJ/AQ/A9s/A8s/A6s and then bricked hearts.

I'm toying with $42/call and lets see if he can turn AJ into a bluff??

Also once you bet the size you did I'm not folding either. He just doesn;t have enough flush combo's with the As on the board. I know it's super unlikely he's bluffing here though when you bet the size you did.

[TheSnapper]

He's repping a really narrow range here, KsQs,KsTs,Ks9s,QsJs,QsTs,Qs9s,JsTs,Js9s,Ts9s (9 hands) can get to the river like this though some should fold the turn.

So its not a good spot to bluff other than he perceives your range as weak, unlikely since you just 3 barrelled.

You only need him to bluff 20% for a call to be correct. Again, it's unlikely.

Are there many hands can call the $100 river Value bet? Its probably close between the value and missed draw parts of his range. Think I prefer bluff catching the river.

[jimbling]

You left out some of the most important stats.
1) What is villains overall aggr?
2) What is villains aggr on river?


Your hand as played is way under repped. He can't really have you on a straight or a flush. On the other hand, you could have him on either.
There's enough bluffs in his range to make the call.

Also, you're saying that this reg is too good to try and make you fold here, but bad enough to be flatting your flop and turn bets with outside draws.
There's is only a limited number of drawing hands that a decent reg would be calling with there. But he's not a decent reg, and seems pretty swingy. so yep, I call.

[Moneymaker]

Ugh, horrible spot. I'd fold but i'd feel like a total vagina doing it as we can't ever have a straight or a flush here pretty much always and there's no way he has either of those in your range. But he definitely can have those hands and he's never bluffing in this spot and he's never value raising worse so I suppose i'd fold and take a break and head for the bog and puke my guts up.