Weight Loss / 10k Run Prop Bet

[Iago]

As suggested by Dom, I've set this up for discussion around this potential prop bet. I'm not sure if the interest will be there but lets find out.

In short I'm looking to set up a bet around my potential weight loss over the course of 15 weeks between 01.05.10 and 15.08.10.

The second part of the bet is my entry to the ClareGalway 10k Run on 14.08.10 and my finishing time in same details here http://www.runireland.com/events/201...nd-fun-runwalk

Our resident fitness expert Bubbleking has said that decent odds are as outlined below


evens = 10km <55 mins and weight -12kg (90kg end weight)

2/1 = 10km < 52 mins and weight - 12kg (90kg end weight)

5/1 = 10km < 47 mins and weight - 15.5kg (86.5kg end weight)


So I'm willing to go up to around €1k or so on either of the first two options, and I'll consider offers presented on the 3rd option although I think it's ambitious to say the least.

Also willing to separate the elements of the bet, so if someone would like to bet on either the completion time or weight loss elements make an offer.

My details as of today:

Starting Weight: 102kg

Height: 5' 7"

Age: 33

Level of Activity: 1 hour of 5-a-side a week at present





Any takers....

[Theresa]

I reckon the time for running will be pretty ok, 10k in any of those times is attainable even at that weight, literally just takes to getting out and running daily. (Im not belittling btw).

The weight loss part: 12kg is about two stone, just under. So two stone over the from now til august(may, june, july, half of august), thats 3.4kg a month, or about .8kg a week, just under 2pounds? Correct?

It seems very doable, except for maybe the third option.

I must stress Im not having a go, it will be tough but no where near impossible. I dont think your giving much value.

[Iago]

I reckon the time for running will be pretty ok, 10k in any of those times is attainable even at that weight, literally just takes to getting out and running daily. (Im not belittling btw).

The weight loss part: 12kg is about two stone, just under. So two stone over the from now til august(may, june, july, half of august), thats 3.4kg a month, or about .8kg a week, just under 2pounds? Correct?

It seems very doable, except for maybe the third option.

I must stress Im not having a go, it will be tough but no where near impossible. I dont think your giving much value.

Fair points, but to be honest I've taken the odds from Bubbleking as what he thinks are fair. He knows far more than I do on the subject

I really don't want it to be impossible either, no point in getting 3-4 weeks in and then realising it's not achievable without going down the route of trying to get there in a very unhealthy way.

I'm open to suggestions on prices and elements, if we can find something that suits everyone then happy days.


edit: although I think you're underestimating my laziness, general injury proneness & actual available time to get the training in on a weekly basis. Also of the 15 weeks available I'll be on vacation for 3 weeks which I've pretty much written off as far as weight loss & training goes.

So while there's a 15 week window, I'm working off a reduced schedule allowing for cheat days etc that could see me only getting around 11/12 weeks of training and weight loss chances.

[Jackyback]

I think your 5/1 shot option is closer to evens imo

[Iago]

I think your 5/1 shot option is closer to evens imo

really

From having practically no physical activity for the best part of 5 years to completing a 10K in under 47mins inside 15 weeks is wildly ambitious I think.

Granted I've never actually tried training for something like this so I could be wrong, but if it that's easy to lose that much weight ( 15% of starting weight) and completing a 10k in that time over 15 weeks would make me wonder why everybody isn't doing it!!

[redzerdrog]

I think your 5/1 shot option is closer to evens imo

i agree 45-47 mins is definately doable

edit: dont agree on it being evens but defo a lot shorter than 5/1

[Jackyback]

really

From having practically no physical activity for the best part of 5 years to completing a 10K in under 47mins inside 15 weeks is wildly ambitious I think.

Granted I've never actually tried training for something like this so I could be wrong, but if it that's easy to lose that much weight ( 15% of starting weight) and completing a 10k in that time over 15 weeks would make me wonder why everybody isn't doing it!!

i agree 45-47 mins is definately doable

edit: dont agree on it being evens but defo a lot shorter than 5/1

I think it is close to evens as i have done the same albeit a lower starting weight (87kg down to 76kg) but still very doable. Actually given the fact you are starting from a bigger starting weight i would say the weight loss should come quicker.

Best of luck with it either way and see you on Sunday for footie!!

[Theresa]

You've decent pedigree in sports though Iago, that'll stand to you massively.

Being heavier means your more likely to have success losing the weight. It WANTS to come off.

The running part I reckon you'll do no prob provided your knee holds up. The weight loss is doable with ZERO training. With training seriously it becomes easier.

Id like to hear Bubblekings reasoning though, obv he is the expert in the area.

[Iago]

I think it is close to evens as i have done the same albeit a lower starting weight (87kg down to 76kg) but still very doable. Actually given the fact you are starting from a bigger starting weight i would say the weight loss should come quicker.

Firstly fair play to you for the above, far more motivation than me obv

but....15kg extra starting weight is huge in terms of training ability in the initial stages. Also I'd hazard a guess that you're taller than I am (most people are )

13st 7lb at 5' 10" (guessing) is a much better starting point than
16st at 5' 7"

I'd agree that I should lose more weight initially, as there's more "spare" weight to go. Of course that's down to how much I can change my patterns, which is the reason for putting a financial hit in it for me if I don't!

Best of luck with it either way and see you on Sunday for footie!!

Cheers, and you will indeed!

[Mellor]

I'll consider betting on this, but not at those prices.

Firstly, 12kg is 15 weeks is doable. If you stand to win a couple of thousand, even more so.
10km times look pretty tame to me.

I had never run and i am over weight. I started doing a bit of treadmill short distance. 3k or so recently. Last week I decided to time myself for my first 5km. I ran it in 26 minutes. This wasn't full effort, I kept going after putting in 15 mins of HIIT and 20 resistance weights.

I'll offer a 10k time of 50 minutes
Weight loss of 15kg (1kg a week)
Odds of 2/1

It's a little easier than the 5/1 shot, this plus the fact that it isn't actually a 5/1 shot. I think its a fair price. Exact terms to be agreed etc

[6starpool]

Bring a weighing scales to the footie for a baseline imo.

[Mellor]

I was actually just thinking bout that tbh. How would an accurate start and end point for weight be established?
I could probably shed 2-5kg in a day for the purpose of a weight in.

[Iago]

I'll consider betting on this, but not at those prices.

Firstly, 12kg is 15 weeks is doable. If you stand to win a couple of thousand, even more so.
10km times look pretty tame to me.

I had never run and i am over weight. I started doing a bit of treadmill short distance. 3k or so recently. Last week I decided to time myself for my first 5km. I ran it in 26 minutes. This wasn't full effort, I kept going after putting in 15 mins of HIIT and 20 resistance weights.

I'll offer a 10k time of 50 minutes
Weight loss of 15kg (1kg a week)
Odds of 2/1

It's a little easier than the 5/1 shot, this plus the fact that it isn't actually a 5/1 shot. I think its a fair price. Exact terms to be agreed etc

I would have thought, and I accept I could be wrong, that running 10k at a steady pace is more than twice as difficult as running 5k at a steady pace. It stands to reason that the further you go, the harder it is to keep a pace up. I was also under the impression that running on a treadmill was easier than running on the road in terms of energy expended and impact on joints. For me personally I believe there's a decent chance that my knee doesn't hold up during the training/run and I lose the bet as a result of it.

However that's really not your issue, so for the purpose of getting this up off the ground and underway if we can agree to 3/1 the bet is on.

Bring a weighing scales to the footie for a baseline imo.

I was actually just thinking bout that tbh. How would an accurate start and end point for weight be established?
I could probably shed 2-5kg in a day for the purpose of a weight in.

I'm happy to bring a scales with me to the footie on Sunday if we're taking Sunday as a baseline for the bet. Or if you would prefer a random date between now and the end of next week I'm happy enough to take your lead on it.

For the end point I had it in my head that we would do a similar exercise with the same scales etc on the Monday following the 10k. Again though I'm happy to discuss the finer details and come to an agreement.

[careca]

I think we're being a bit harsh here. Running 10K in 47 mins (or less) from a practically zero starting base is pretty good. Ok he has 15 weeks to do it, but I still think it would be tough. I'd prob make it a 3/1 shot.

As I mentioned to Iago in the BBV thread, the weight loss thing shouldn't really come into it because the bets are linked. Like if he loses weight, he should be able to run faster/longer and if he runs faster/longer he will lose more weight.

Also @mellor, not being smart but running on a threadmill and running 5/10K on the road are different things imo.

[careca]

I'm a slow typist !!

[Mellor]

I would have thought, and I accept I could be wrong, that running 10k at a steady pace is more than twice as difficult as running 5k at a steady pace. It stands to reason that the further you go, the harder it is to keep a pace up. I was also under the impression that running on a treadmill was easier than running on the road in terms of energy expended and impact on joints. For me personally I believe there's a decent chance that my knee doesn't hold up during the training/run and I lose the bet as a result of it.

My point was to set a base line. Treadmill makes a huge difference, but so does race day. 5k as part of a bigger workout and 10k raceday is huge. The adrenaline, the fact that you won't have any other exertion on the day, properly fueled etc.

However that's really not your issue, so for the purpose of getting this up off the ground and underway if we can agree to 3/1 the bet is on.

The main issue for me is the weigh in. I'm not saying you'd cheat, but the variance on scales is a bitch. I'd be happy with two weigh-ins before and after, on consecutive days. One can be the footie, one of the guys can judge.

I'll split the difference and go 5/2, my $200 to your $500
Exact dates and weigh in format to be agreed.

[menoscemo]

I think the weight loss should be no real problem given training and a good diet. A lot of the extra weight you are carrying is water weight which will practically drop off in the first few weeks given a decent diet.

The running part is much more difficult than people are giving it credit for IMO. Have a look at the results from the great ireland Run (a 10k race in the phoenix park last weekend http://www.greatirelandrun.org/Events/2010/Default.aspx ) A time under 47 minutes would have got you in the top 10% of the field. I took up running over a year ago after losing a ton of weight. This time last year I would have had about 16 weeks solid training behind me and I would have just about been capable of breaking 50 minutes for a 10k on a good day and on a flat course. At the time I was (and still am!!) 5"9 and 75 kilos. Last week i ran the GIR in 43 minutes, that's with about 15 months solid training behind me. i Did the DCM last year and have ran 400 miles since january this year. A friend of mine a tall slim lad (about 6 foot and 12 stone) who was always best at athhletics in school (went to the ulster 100m championships) and who has been running Road races for 3 or 4 years now, has never actually broke 47 minutes for a 10k. Ok he doesn't put in huge training but on good weeks he would run about 3 times a week (about 20 miles).

Even if Iago loses 15 kg he will still be 5"7 and 87kg which is extremely over weight especially for a runner...

A lot depends on the profile of the 10k you have signed up for. if it is a hilly course it will take about 2 minutes more to complete than a flat course.

I would say that the chances of breaking 50 minutes for the race are 3/1 or bigger irrespective of weightloss.

[Ste05]

I think the weight loss should be no real problem given training and a good diet. A lot of the extra weight you are carrying is water weight which will practically drop off in the first few weeks given a decent diet.

The reason it's difficult is having to self motivate to train and eat a good diet, I'm sure Iago is the same as me and has been living unhealthly for the last 5-6 years and it's not a case of "ah now I'll start eating healthy and train!!" It's changing your whole lifestyle from what you've done for the last few years to something completely different.

The running part IMO is the easy part, at least it's just 1 day and you can just give it a good lash even if you can't walk for a day or so after and you're lungs burst, it's the losing weight is what will be difficult cos it could get away from you after a couple of weeks and you'll have to make even bigger lifestyle changes and when you realise what you have to do you'll just pack it in.

People are seriously underestimating how difficult it is to change how you live your life!!!

[menoscemo]

People are seriously underestimating how difficult it is to change how you live your life!!!

I completely appreciate it!! I went from a 92kg slob to a 75kg long distance runner in the last few years. When i changed my diet i practically lost all the excess weight in the first 4 to 5 months and i was doing no training at that stage. Was it hard? Yes. was it as hard as running flat out in a 10k race with your body and mind telling you to stop all the way- not even close.

And Lol if you think that a morbidly obese person can just go out there and run a 10k in under 50 minutes by 'giving it a good oul lash on the day'. It's gonna take weeks of hard training, he will need to be running 20-30 mile a week to even get into a shape to be contemplating that, and going from zero to that kind of distance at that kind of weight is going to place extreme strain on the body. I'd say it is 50-50 that he even makes it to the start line.

[Iago]

My point was to set a base line. Treadmill makes a huge difference, but so does race day. 5k as part of a bigger workout and 10k raceday is huge. The adrenaline, the fact that you won't have any other exertion on the day, properly fueled etc.


The main issue for me is the weigh in. I'm not saying you'd cheat, but the variance on scales is a bitch. I'd be happy with two weigh-ins before and after, on consecutive days. One can be the footie, one of the guys can judge.

I'll split the difference and go 5/2, my $200 to your $500
Exact dates and weigh in format to be agreed.

Far enough with the weigh-ins, happy to do one on Sunday at footie and one on Monday with the average of the two counting. Similarly I'll do one on the Sunday following the 10k and on the Monday again with the average of the two counting.

3/1 is as low as I'm willing to go, that's me splitting the difference between 5/1 (which I still think is me taking the worst of it) and Evens, which is me just handing over the money now and forgetting the bet

I appreciate both sides want to underestimate their chances of success, but I genuinely think I'm taking the worst of it at 3/1 and my willingness to do so has more to do with the need for me to change my life than a lack of love of money.

Also I presumed the bolded part is the wrong way around and it'll be your $600 to my $200 if you agree to the odds, otherwise we're miles off

I think the weight loss should be no real problem given training and a good diet. A lot of the extra weight you are carrying is water weight which will practically drop off in the first few weeks given a decent diet.

The running part is much more difficult than people are giving it credit for IMO. Have a look at the results from the great ireland Run (a 10k race in the phoenix park last weekend http://www.greatirelandrun.org/Events/2010/Default.aspx ) A time under 47 minutes would have got you in the top 10% of the field. I took up running over a year ago after losing a ton of weight. This time last year I would have had about 16 weeks solid training behind me and I would have just about been capable of breaking 50 minutes for a 10k on a good day and on a flat course. At the time I was (and still am!!) 5"9 and 75 kilos. Last week i ran the GIR in 43 minutes, that's with about 15 months solid training behind me. i Did the DCM last year and have ran 400 miles since january this year. A friend of mine a tall slim lad (about 6 foot and 12 stone) who was always best at athhletics in school (went to the ulster 100m championships) and who has been running Road races for 3 or 4 years now, has never actually broke 47 minutes for a 10k. Ok he doesn't put in huge training but on good weeks he would run about 3 times a week (about 20 miles).

Even if Iago loses 15 kg he will still be 5"7 and 87kg which is extremely over weight especially for a runner...

A lot depends on the profile of the 10k you have signed up for. if it is a hilly course it will take about 2 minutes more to complete than a flat course.

I would say that the chances of breaking 50 minutes for the race are 3/1 or bigger irrespective of weightloss.

The reason it's difficult is having to self motivate to train and eat a good diet, I'm sure Iago is the same as me and has been living unhealthly for the last 5-6 years and it's not a case of "ah now I'll start eating healthy and train!!" It's changing your whole lifestyle from what you've done for the last few years to something completely different.

The running part IMO is the easy part, at least it's just 1 day and you can just give it a good lash even if you can't walk for a day or so after and you're lungs burst, it's the losing weight is what will be difficult cos it could get away from you after a couple of weeks and you'll have to make even bigger lifestyle changes and when you realise what you have to do you'll just pack it in.

People are seriously underestimating how difficult it is to change how you live your life!!!

I completely appreciate it!! I went from a 92kg slob to a 75kg long distance runner in the last few years. When i changed my diet i practically lost all the excess weight in the first 4 to 5 months and i was doing no training at that stage. Was it hard? Yes. was it as hard as running flat out in a 10k race with your body and mind telling you to stop all the way- not even close.

And Lol if you think that a morbidly obese person can just go out there and run a 10k in under 50 minutes by 'giving it a good oul lash on the day'. It's gonna take weeks of hard training, he will need to be running 20-30 mile a week to even get into a shape to be contemplating that, and going from zero to that kind of distance at that kind of weight is going to place extreme strain on the body. I'd say it is 50-50 that he even makes it to the start line.

I've included the 3 posts above and bolded the important parts in my view. I believe people are grossly underestimating the impact this will have on my life and the difficulty in completing the challenge. I will have to do a complete 180 in terms of both diet and lifestyle, with the amount of weight I have to lose and the stress that I'll be putting my body under in order to complete a 10k race in the time allowed.

My target weight for this challenge is a weight that I haven't seen on a scales since I was 25, and while I think it's achievable it's going to be mentally and physically demanding. I don't believe I'm morbidly obese, not yet anyway, but I am effectively starting from scratch on this challenge and I have serious doubts about my ability to complete the training and 10k run given my previous injury problems.


In order to make this financially attractive to me I'd be looking to book more action on it. If Mellor agrees to 3/1 I'm looking to put up another $800 of my money against $2,400 on the other side of the bet.

I'm thinking I need to book a minimum of $700 of my money in total to make it worth the 15 weeks of hell I'll be putting myself through. So come one, come all

Carlsberg don't do prop bets but if they did, this would be close enough to the top of their list imo

[Mellor]

I'll agree to 3/1 @ 600.

Bet starts Sunday 2nd may
Ends, monday after the run, 16th aug

Average of two verified weigh-ins. (If you want, we have have a +/- 200g no bet window to avoid a situation where the way its averaged is 14.9 or 15.1, or we could agree on 1 decimal place.)
Clothes must be the same for all weigh-ins, or reasonable similar. Agreed member of IPB to verify weights.

Official time (website i imagine) for the run.


I think that covers it


Edit: Lol, should probably ass time has to be sub 50.00 and weight loss greater than 15.0kg

[Iago]

Consider this booked, will obv have to sort out a verifible weigh-in for next weekend given the footie was yesterday not next Sunday!

Would still like more action on this, and I'm very surprised at the lack of interest so far. Who'd have thunk IPB would have so few people who can see clear value

I'll agree to 3/1 @ 600.

Bet starts Sunday 2nd may
Ends, monday after the run, 16th aug

Average of two verified weigh-ins. (If you want, we have have a +/- 200g no bet window to avoid a situation where the way its averaged is 14.9 or 15.1, or we could agree on 1 decimal place.)
Clothes must be the same for all weigh-ins, or reasonable similar. Agreed member of IPB to verify weights.

Official time (website i imagine) for the run.


I think that covers it


Edit: Lol, should probably ass time has to be sub 50.00 and weight loss greater than 15.0kg

[Wallop Nuts]

Hi Iago,
Just reading this thread for the first time today. I think it is a great idea. Have been couching it myself for the last few (10) years. Never was much of a runner/sportsman either. I wonder if I could muscle in on your challenge. I really need to get fitter and this might just motivate me to do it. I'm not interested in stealing your action. What I was thinking was that we could run €1K split contra between the two of us:

€500 on the weight
€500 on the race time

If we both hit or miss our targets, its a null sum. Obviously €500- €1000 is made by one of us getting there (or partially there) and the other failing.

Haven't weighed myself in a while but I would imagine I am somewhere around the 16 stone mark (I'm 6'2").
If you agree to it in principle, we can work out the details.

Cheers

[Iago]

^^^^^

In principal this sounds interesting, need to think about the targets though as your height would indicate you're at a better starting spot than I am with the same starting weight, but yes in principal I'm interested in coming up with something.

[Wallop Nuts]

Cool.
I agree that the targets need to be equally ambitious. Your's certainly are. Will we discuss it in this thread or would you prefer to PM it?
Barry

[Iago]

okely dokely.

The current state of play as I see it

Mellor has $600 booked against my $200

~ I have to lose 15kg in weight between Monday 3rd May - Monday 16th August.
Weight loss will be determined by a weigh in held on Sunday 2nd May & Monday 3rd May with the average weight counting as a starting point.

Final weigh in will take place on Sunday 15th August & Monday 16th August with the average weight counting as an end point.

If the weight is +-200g in either direction it's a push on that element of the bet.

~ I must also complete the ClareGalway 10k in <50 minutes on Saturday 14th August

Official race time will be used to judge this element of the task.

A failure in either of these elements is a win for Mellor.

We need to confirm weigh-ins both before and after, Mellor if you want to suggest something either on thread or by PM let me know. Obviously with the match last weekend I'm not expecting to have too many IPBers around at mine on Sunday & Monday this week for two weigh-ins Although if there is anyone who has a burning desire to see a short fat lad in football shorts on a weighing scale I'm sure I can arrange something


The 2nd bet is between myself and Wallop Nuts

It's a contra bet with us both taking the same targets and goals

~ 15kg weight loss between Monday 3rd May - Monday 16th August

~ Complete the Claregalway 10k Race in <50 minutes

We'll each put up €1,000 in total, €500 for each element. If one fails in one element and the other completes it they win the bet. Similar weigh in conditions and official race time will determine the results.


I'm still willing to take more action on this, but it will need to be sorted before this weekend obviously if anyone is interested.

Mellor & Wallop Nuts, I'm happy to escrow if you'd like? Let me know what your preference is.

[Mellor]

Just to clarify, the +/- 200g was a suggetion to void the whole bet, just it came down to the wire to avoid disputes.
I'll be looking to scrap it if you want it for weight only as it makes the bet worse for me better for you.

Still looking for ideas for verifying weight.

[Iago]

Just to clarify, the +/- 200g was a suggetion to void the whole bet, just it came down to the wire to avoid disputes.
I'll be looking to scrap it if you want it for weight only as it makes the bet worse for me better for you.

Still looking for ideas for verifying weight.

No, it's definitely for the weight and the race. I probably didn't articulate myself as well as I should have.

As for the weight piece, I'm happy to drag myself and a scales to anywhere in Dublin that suits you on Sunday & Monday to do the two weigh ins. Could also do a video/photo of both weigh ins on a honor based system either.

Ultimately I'll leave it up to you as you have to be happy that it's all been above board.

[Mellor]

No, it's definitely for the weight and the race. I probably didn't articulate myself as well as I should have.

As for the weight piece, I'm happy to drag myself and a scales to anywhere in Dublin that suits you on Sunday & Monday to do the two weigh ins. Could also do a video/photo of both weigh ins on a honor based system either.

Ultimately I'll leave it up to you as you have to be happy that it's all been above board.

Ha Ha, How do you feel about dragging yourself to Sydney, As Dublin is a bit far for me.
Video and photo of weigh-ins is fine. I'm happy with an honor system.

[Iago]

Ha Ha, How do you feel about dragging yourself to Sydney, As Dublin is a bit far for me.
Video and photo of weigh-ins is fine. I'm happy with an honor system.

lol! I can do that, but we might have to increase the stakes slightly to make it worth my while

Good enough, will do so on Sunday/Monday.

[Wallop Nuts]

I'm sort of having one of those " Ay, caramba!, what have I done" moments.

I just went down to the chemists and according to their scales I am 100.20 kg. (I know this won't count as an official weight). So assuming that this is correct/ doesn't change. My target is 85.20 kg (+/- 200g proviso accepted).

Weigh ins. whatever you suggest. I guess I could take a scales into the Fitz on Sunday and Monday (Any one about to verify?) but as I said I'm open to suggestions.

Oh yeah, I'm m 6'2". I'll be 37 in September. My current level of activity is..............well I brush my teeth quite vigorously twice a day. After that I take a well earned rest.

Race time: As I was saying in the email I was hoping to set the target @ <52 mins (i.e Bubbleking's 2/1 shot). If both of us agree, this target can be reduced anytime up to race day.
Admittedly, a sub 52 minute race is very weedy compared to your <47 min prop bet but I have no confidence in my ability to run and don't want to be demoralised before beginning.
(Yes yes, I am an Über wuss. But that’s Mr Über Wus to you, 'kay?)


I hope that’s everything and hopefully the 52 min time is okay. If so, consider it booked.


CHOO CHOO, I'M ALL-IN

[Wallop Nuts]

My mistake, your bet with Mellor is <50 mins

[Iago]

I'm happy enough to set the bar at <52 for the purpose of the bet between Wallop Nuts and myself.

Obviously I'll be working towards <50 anyway as per the bet with Mellor.

Did an unofficial weigh in today and came in at 103.4kg clothed so it looks like I'll be there or thereabouts with the 102Kg that I thought I'd be starting at.

Reality is setting in now though, may just have bitten off more than I can chew

[Mellor]

Best of luck with this, I'd like to see you get very very close
First official weigh in shorty for anyone following this.

[Wallop Nuts]

Went to Peats to buy new batteries for the scales. It clocked me at a wopping 102.5 kgs. This is over 2 KG heavier than when I weighed myself at the chemists the other day. The scales is about 2 years old and is meant to be accurate. I have a feeling the one in the chemist was a bit of a crock (I paid the woman 50 cent for the privilidge and she gave me a twenty pence coin from the eighties to put into the scales). Either way, I will use the same scales for all future weigh-ins. So hopefully all are agreed that this is okay.

Assuming all is dandy. My target is 87.5 kg by August 16th

Pictures to follow.

[Wallop Nuts]

Not sure if they are attaching!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[Wallop Nuts]

The detail in te photos are fine but when I post them they are awful. Any recommendations? I have them saved along with a few video clips anyway.

[Iago]

you could stick them up on photobucket or something...

I've put mine up in a folder on photobucket and I've sent the link to Mellor to make sure he's happy with the starting point (link below, not safe for anyone so be it on your own head if you look at the video )

http://s743.photobucket.com/albums/xx79/iago_010/Prop%20Bet/

Presuming that both yourself and Mellor are happy with the attached then my starting weight for the bet will be 101.1Kg meaning I need to be at 86.1kg or less on August 16th to win that portion (pending my second weigh in tomorrow for averaging purposes)

Once you've both confirmed that you're happy with that I'll register for the race and the bet is on. We've all agreed to work off an honour system with no need to escrow so I think that's everything dealt with.

All that's left is to choose which limb I want to cut off for the weight loss element and purchase a scooter to get me around the ClareGalway 10k in under 50 minutes

[Mellor]

The detail in te photos are fine but when I post them they are awful. Any recommendations? I have them saved along with a few video clips anyway.

Thats enough detail, can clearly make it out.
I imagine the chemist scales was messed up. Tends to happen to scales after a few years.

[Iago]

Ok, so my 2nd weigh in is up in that folder now and I came in at 101.5kg.

That gives me a starting point of 101.3kg which means I must be under 86.3kg on Monday August 16th in order to win this portion of the bet.

I'll be registering for the race later today and I'll post confirmation of that registration in this thread.

[Iago]

Confirmation of my registration in the Claregalway 10k below

Order Grand Total: €20.00
Payment Method: Credit card
Order Summary:
Order #: 21900
Products Subtotal: €20.00
------
Total for this Order: €20.00


Products on order:
1 x Claregalway 10K - €20.00
SKU: Claregalway/10K
Name: Gary Dempsey
reference: 33411

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So with the dates and starting weight confirmed we are all systems go for this bet. I'll keep this thread updated with my weak, I mean weekly progress, trials and tribulations.


Week 1, Day 1:
Starting Weight: 101.3Kg

Weight Loss this week: N/A
Weight Loss to date: N/A

Target End Weight: 86.3Kg

Now that the bet is up and running I'll start by saying this; I'm genuinely surprised that I didn't get more action on this bet. I know it's the nature of every gambler to understate their own chances in order to convince others to take the worst of it, but I believe the boards users have underestimated the difficulty of completing this bet.

In a normal situation, losing 15Kg in 15 weeks is achievable. However because of the requirement to complete the 10K in <50 minutes there will be a significant amount of training involved which will impact on the capacity to lose weight. I think I'll have to lose somewhere in the region of 20-22Kg of fat in order to meet the 15Kg net weight loss target, allowing for the increase in muscle I would expect to see during this period of training.

I'll give it my best shot, and I started out today by joining a gym and instantly familiarising myself with it's Jacuzzi & steam room. I passed by some cardio machines and weights on the way in, but Rome wasn't built in a day so it's much better to ease myself into it

If I can get close to the weight loss, and complete the 10k in under 60 minutes I'll consider that as a success regardless of the financial implications.

GAME ON!!

[Mellor]

I'm surprized you didn't either, some if the reason I gave action was the fact that I've been trying to lose weigt over the last few months
a bet like this is a great motivator and if I can help someone else why not. I expect the poker bunch to be made up of a few people in the same boat and to jump on board
plus the little degenerate inside needs to be fed

also, I just realized I have a run in august too
maybe even the same date,
I'll get back

[Wallop Nuts]

This second weigh in was taken with a camera phone -I think it is still okay but its your call................



First weigh-In: Sunday May 2nd 102.5 kg
Second Weigh-In Monday May 3rd 102.4 kg
Average 102.45 kg

I would think rounding down would be the fair thing here, So starting weight is 102.4 kg.
Target weight 87.4 kg.

Can you send me the link for registering for the run. Cheers.


Completely agree with you Iago, it is a tough challenge and you were giving a very good price. It was surprising the lack of interest. When I was chatting to a couple of mates about it they were laughing and going " How do we get in it ?". All bluster though, as they never looked you up.

Now that the bet is running I just want to say that I genuinely hope you do it. I know we don't know each other but I feel we're in it together. Its a real challenge and for once lets believe in the old chestnut about Fortune's gra for the brave.
Right now I feel motivated and just hope that I can sustain it for the duration. Thanks again for letting me in on your coat tails.

Good idea about posting the updates. I will weigh myself once a week and post on Mondays.

I have gotten in to the geek side of things too. Just downloaded a couple of apps for my phone. The aptly named couch to 10k (C210K) and Runkeeper. I probably start with C210K but once I move on to Runkeeper, I should be able to upload my progress. Are you using anything like this?

I am also trying to figure out a good diet plan. I'll let you know how I get on.

GL

[Iago]

Now that the bet is running I just want to say that I genuinely hope you do it. I know we don't know each other but I feel we're in it together. Its a real challenge and for once lets believe in the old chestnut about Fortune's gra for the brave.
Right now I feel motivated and just hope that I can sustain it for the duration. Thanks again for letting me in on your coat tails.

Good idea about posting the updates. I will weigh myself once a week and post on Mondays.

I have gotten in to the geek side of things too. Just downloaded a couple of apps for my phone. The aptly named couch to 10k (C210K) and Runkeeper. I probably start with C210K but once I move on to Runkeeper, I should be able to upload my progress. Are you using anything like this?

I am also trying to figure out a good diet plan. I'll let you know how I get on.

GL

Absolutely, I hope we both do it and will be delighted if we do.

The link for the run is below, you can register online obviously.

http://www.runireland.com/events/2010-08-14/claregalway-10k-road-race-and-fun-runwalk

At the moment I'm just working off the basics of trying to sort out what I should and shouldn't be eating and I'm going to spend the first few weeks just getting a base level of fitness. As I go through the challenge I'll probably adapt to technology and specific training plans, but for now it's as simple as cut out the crap and get out walking to start.

[Theresa]

Lads, Just wanted to say fair balls to ye both.

Its gonna a tough slog, and there are gonna be times when you want to just stop but trust me, keep pushing you'll feel some sense of accomplishment and pride in the end. Plus you'll look a hell of a lot better.

glglglglgl

[Mellor]

How are you'd finding week 1 lads,

I checked there, my run is the week before, forgot all about it

[Iago]

I'm going to do an update post tomorrow. had planned to do it today but could barely open my eyes this morning, much less take a photo and upload it.

Suffice to say the 1st week went pretty much the way I expected it to, although not the way I needed it to

[Wallop Nuts]

This week can be summed up in one word. HUNGRY. I am putting less than half the fuel into my body as I did and 'belly' is not on board with the plan. Nor is it impressed by my flimsy resolve. I finish my meals and immediately think how long before the next pathetic morsel. It’s quite depressing really.
I move forward in the dim hope that it will get easier (Although to be honest I accidentally bumped into a bowl of ice-cream yesterday. Mmmmmmm; sweet, sweet ice-cream)………Ahem…Lets just call this a minor blip and we'll try to stumble forwards. 'kay?

This week the plan is to get a bit more structured with my diet. I read on a website (hope that this is right) that someone of my height, weight and level of activity requires about 2,750 calories (Kcals) per day to perform. To lose 1KG of weight per week, it advises to introduce a deficit of about 1000 calories per day. So, for the last week I have been attempting less than 1800 Kcals per day and bar the one mishap I have been reasonably successful. That been said I need to plan my meals a lot better.
On the plus side I have lost 1.5KG. (I am not getting carried away with this. Clever people tell me that the first week or two is all about shedding excess water rather than fat. "Early results are misleading", I am told. (Damn their clever hides).)

The best thing to be said aboutmy running is that I am sticking with it. I have been out three times. Each time I used a little Iphone app called C210K (couch to 10K, I swear). I definitely recommend it. You can listen to music and when you start your run a voice prompts you to walk or run. The program is supposed to help you slowly build up to running constantly for 1 hour. In order to be ready for the race, I started on week 3 which goes like this:

Warm-up 5 mins, Then
Run 1 min 30 secs, walk 3 mins 30 seconds X 11 reps
Cool down 5 mins.

The first day I struggled but the last run was a bit easier. Next one is on Tuesday but it changes to run 2 mins, walk 3mins. How ridiculous am I that this actually scares me? But If 120 seconds of running scares me, 52 mins of it is truly traumatizing



This all sounds very moany, I will admit that on a some sort of a sick and twisted level I am enjoying the challenge.

[Iago]

Week 2, Day 8:
Starting Weight: 101.3Kg

Weight Loss this week: 1.4Kg
Weight Loss to date: 1.4Kg

Average Loss per week: 1.4kg

Current Weight: 99.9Kg
Estimated End Weight at current rate: 80.3kg
Target End Weight: 86.3Kg

So week 1 over and done and weight loss of 1.4Kg. More than I expected, less than I hoped for. I'll start with the negatives, this week I had a family dinner, a mate leaving work and a day trip to Manchester with the lads for football. Unfortunately this is something that's going to continue throughout this challenge, I've a stag do the weekend coming for example. So a lot of temptation and days where my diet and training are likely to suffer as a result. I also haven't done any weights this week, which will undoubtedly help me lose fat, but which will restrict me from losing weight Also as pointed out above, the first week or two is generally water weight etc and you should lose more on average at the start than you do at the end.

So with the above in mind, I think it's fair to say that a 1.4Kg loss is probably around 25/35% lower than where I need to be in the early stages.

On the plus side, I've 1 week less to do!!

On Saturday I decided to try and establish a baseline for my fitness and runnnig capability so I went to the gym and after stretching popped myself on the treadmill. I was trying to find a pace that was comfortable for me without being easy and I had decided I would run for 25 minutes or so. I managed to complete 3.5Km in those 25 minutes, which given the fact that apart from some football, running for a bus, or away from a crime(I am from the northside after all ), I hadn't done any type of running at all in years was ok.

I need to run a lot faster for a lot longer in order to win that element of the bet, but I was fairly comfortable both during and after the run and I've 14 weeks or so to build up my speed, stamina and distance.

All in all I think the first week went ok, but I'll need to do a lot more over the coming weeks if I'm to get to where I need to be on this challenge.

[Bubbleking]

great stuff lads keep up the good work

[BlindLimper]

Good updates lads. Keeping an eye on ya's to see how you get on. From here on in it will be really interesting as i think the first week will always be relatively easy in terms of weight loss and motivation. Hope there are no injuries along the way and ya get a good sweat (get it) for the race to see if you can hit your times.

[The C Kid]

Great updates. Good luck to both.

[Iago]

Week 3, Day 15:
Starting Weight: 101.3Kg

Weight Loss this week: 0.2Kg
Weight Loss to date: 1.6Kg

Average Loss per week: 0.8kg

Current Weight: 99.7Kg
Estimated End Weight at current rate: 89.3kg
Target End Weight: 86.3Kg

At first glance it looks like this was a bad week and in many ways it was, but a favourite phrase of mine is "everything is relative"

This was one of 3 weeks that I had looked at pre-challenge and thought to myself "if I can just avoid gaining weight that week, it'll be a result" This week work & family commitments meant that I could only train one day out of 7, and when I add in the fact that I spent the weekend on a stag do with 20+ mates (some of whom I hadn't seen in 10 years) it was always going to be a messy week.

So the week has passed and we shall never speak of it again I feel I'm well setup now though and I'm expecting a big number this week, so while I'm slightly off based on average loss I'm also aware that the week just gone was a very particular situation and I'm confident that my next update will have me back on track with the challenge.

[Mellor]

I must admit, I was hopeing for a gain in the stag week too

Well done so far.

[Wallop Nuts]

Obviously, this is late in. Sry guys

Iago, I'll use your template:

Stats:

Week 3, Day 18:
Starting Weight: 102.4Kg
Target weight 87.4 kg.

Weight Loss this week: Hard to say because I forgot to weigh myself on Monday.
Weight Loss to date: 3.3 Kg

Average Loss per week: er........about 1.5 kg.

Current Weight: 99.1Kg
Estimated End Weight at current rate: 81.4 kg
Target End Weight: 87.4Kg

Obviously this has been a successful week. I have more or less stuck to the diet. Certainly haven't been eating any crap. Its funny for the first 10 days, I really craved sugar. But now my body seems to have adjusted to it. If I want something sweet, fruit does the job.
Here's hoping that it lasts.


Running:

Still using the C210k running app. On Tuesday night I started week 5 of the program (skipped week 1 and 2). a 5 min warm up and cool down with 13 x walk for 2.5 min, run for 2.5 min splits in between. I thought it was going to kill me but eventually I settled in to the rhythm and just got on with it.

The Challenge:

The next two to three weeks is crunch time. Two weeks or so in and the novelty is wearing off. I've planned my diet, got the gadgets and had my initial burst of enthusiasm. This is where the wheels normally start to come off for me.
THIS TIME I WILL TOUGH IT OUT. (This forum and the prop bet are a huge source of inspiration).


Iago, Love the attitude. Keep it going. We'll make it (I bet you a steak dinner we will!)

[Mellor]

Well done WN,
I've started my train for my run today.
Purely by co-incidence that I'm running the week before and took action. 12 weeks to go or so. 14k (overweight too)

[Iago]

Well done WN,
I've started my train for my run today.
Purely by co-incidence that I'm running the week before and took action. 12 weeks to go or so. 14k (overweight too)

What kind of action have you got on yours mate?

Well we're all in it together now, and there's only one way to get it done and that's discipline, discipline, discipline.















says he who had a full Irish for breakfast this morning

[Mellor]

Oh, i've no action on mine, I meant coincidence that I agreed to do one (when drunk) and that I took action on this.

14k, I'll be happy with sub 90 minutes but want to push it.
If I lose weight during training, its a bonus, drop the weights and cardio for a while, but I hate cardio with a passion

What makes it worse, housemate is doing it too, he drinks like a fish, smokes and eats what he wants, could probably do it tomorrow no hassle.

[Iago]

Week 4, Day 22:
Starting Weight: 101.3Kg

Weight Loss this week: 1.5Kg
Weight Loss to date: 3.1Kg

Average Loss per week: 1.0kg

Current Weight: 98.2Kg
Estimated End Weight at current rate: 86.2kg
Target End Weight: 86.3Kg

A decent if not great week, I managed to get in a couple of days training and I've almost got my diet on track at this stage. The diet is going to be a major problem for me I think, having spent the guts of 15 years eating what I wanted when I wanted it I'm now faced with having to cut out pretty much everything I like eating if I want to get my weight down to win the challenge. Most of the time that's fine, I don't think too much about breakfast and I've been bringing lunches with me to work so Mon-Fri is ok. The weekends are a killer though, the weekend just gone was perfect BBQ weather, and you can't have a BBQ without eating more than you should and food that you shouldn't. It's also not the same without some cool beers to wash it all down and so on and so forth....

Training wise I've started to introduce some weight training into my regime, although I only managed 3 sessions this week and finding the time/energy/enthusiasm to get to the gym while working is proving troublesome. I'm fine once I get there, it's the getting back up off the couch after getting home that's the problem Still only running 3.5K for now, but I completed it in just under 20 minutes this week so I've taken 5 minutes off the time while still remaining comfortable. I'm still running too slowly though and I'll need to cut it by another 5 minutes to get on pace.

All told I would rate myself at about 35% at this stage to be successful in both parts of the bet, I need to increase the intensity of my training and show an iron will in relation to my diet to have any chance. Did I mention I've a two week sun holiday coming up in the middle of June? Those 2 weeks & the week immediately following them will be make or break for me. If I come back from those still on track weight wise and training wise my chances will improve dramatically, here's hoping!!

[menoscemo]

Still only running 3.5K for now, but I completed it in just under 20 minutes this week so I've taken 5 minutes off the time while still remaining comfortable. I'm still running too slowly though and I'll need to cut it by another 5 minutes to get on pace.

Are you running on the threadmill in the GYm? if so you really need to get outside and run. You need to get used to the hard surface, win and hills. Running on a threadmill is very poor training for road running.