AQ 200bb deep v two massive fish

[Theresa]

Both the button and BB are huge fish.

BTN is 50/27/3.8
BB is 68/39/1.6. Both over ~100 hands.

Both of these are pretty bad as you can see, the bb and myself have some history in that he'll call me down very light. I haven't really tangled with the BTN.

I didnt 3bet pre as I wanted to play a deep pot with such a good hand against the two of them.

I lead the flop because the BB will call me with worse a hell of a lot and also my hand is very susceptible to being outdrawn and I'd rather they didnt have the option of checking it back. t. Anyway, Bb called as you can see and the BTN min raised the two of us.

What now?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($97.85)
UTG ($53.14)
MP ($88.42)
Button ($106.46)
Hero (SB) ($93.03)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, Q
2 folds, Button bets $2, Hero calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($6) 9, 10, Q (3 players)
Hero bets $5.50, BB calls $5.50, Button raises $11, Hero?

[BuChan]

if the flop has 2 diamonds then call obv. if not then puke fold i suppose as the pots going to be huge and it's not a great board to be getting 200bbs in. don't like the flop lead even given your reasons.
sidenote i think since the buttons stats are so loose i think 3betting pre is good sometimes as he'll call with lots of dominated aces and queens.

[Closed_Account]

if the flop has 2 diamonds then call obv. if not then puke fold i suppose as the pots going to be huge and it's not a great board to be getting 200bbs in. don't like the flop lead even given your reasons.
sidenote i think since the buttons stats are so loose i think 3betting pre is good sometimes as he'll call with lots of dominated aces and queens.

Agree with everything in this. I really dislike flop lead.

[Alfie]

I think you should be 3betting pre like every time here, 5handed vs. fish your hand plays well even out of position like this. Life is just a lot easier for you this way as you can lead the flop and not have your line look completely FOS and causing you this headache with a strong hand, that looks weak, on a very wet board. The samples for the stats you have on them obviously aren't great and I wouldn't rely on them 100% when trying to put these guys on a range, so bear this in mind, and don't look at a 100 hand sample of bad play and just mash buttons, it's extra information for sure, but it's incomplete and inaccurate for the most part here.

However, as played, I do think raising > calling > folding. At first I thought raising would be pure spew, but it (hopefully) isolates the button, who can have a very wide range here consisting of a lot of combo draws, delectible things like KQ and pair + gutshot type hands which you should be making pay to see a turn card. I'd be inclined to make it $28 or so and call a ship but it's a really marginal spot that could have been avoided by 3betting preflop so I think that's the real lesson in this one.

As usual, I'm now almost positive my thoughts on this hand are just wrong and I should stick to MTTSNGs so everyone feel free to pick this one apart but this is how I would play it anyway.

[Line Us]

Weird hand, I'd prefer a 3bet pre just because the button is so fishy,we are pretty deep and he should call you pretty wide. Its obviously fine to flat too to keep the bb in. I really dont like the donk on the flop. I'd just check call the flop here. I wouldn't expect this flop to get checked behind too much so dont think thats a valid reason for leading, i'd like a lead with all your nut hands, straights and sets and maybe 2 pair hear though, I dont think tptk on this board is strong enough. As played just flat now getting such a redic price on your hand improving, no value from worse to be got and noone will fold 2 pair even if ya raise. If the button had raised more I'd probably fold now as your going to be folding most non diamond/Q/A turns.

[Moneymaker]

You should definitely be 3betting pre. If they're such donks then their calling range is gonna be massive, the pot will be bigger and you have a great hand.

As played I hate the lead with the fiery passion of 1000 George Foremans. Getting it in even vs these two is gonna be bad and there's so many horrible turn cards for you. I guess i'd fold and punch myself for misplaying it so much.

[TommyGunne]

I'd 3b to like 9 or so. Really big. I also hate leading this flop. Call now again as I said before, but I'm not very happy at all.

[Closed_Account]

Yeah I would never fold on the flop when we can pick up diamonds-or a sneaky queen-or even an ace.

[Sledgejammer]

Dunno why people hate leading this flop so much? We've TPTP on a super wet board against fish liable to call us with a huge range, why not lead? We're hardly check raising, I think c/call is losing too much value

I'd 3 bet pre alright as everyone else said

[Moneymaker]

Dunno why people hate leading this flop so much? We've TPTP on a super wet board against fish liable to call us with a huge range, why not lead? We're hardly check raising, I think c/call is losing too much value

It's not so much the lead I hate so much, it's the lack of a plan for what to do if raised/called really.

[Theresa]

Def should have 3bet pre as mentioned. Thinking about it I know Im getting called with worse a fair bit by the fish in the BB and prob the button too.

Flop lead is pretty ok imo. I really dont get all the hate for it either.

Folding now is the best option as well I think.

[Theresa]

It's not so much the lead I hate so much, it's the lack of a plan for what to do if raised/called really.

Well no, there was a plan, I just didnt expect this action and tbh if you could and you could plan for it then fair balls.

My plan was to get it in versus the BB for stacks on this flop, which was 100% ok with me.

The btn so rarely has a hand he raises here and calls so so so much of his range so leading is good imo, when he raises he generally has a big hand, it was more the raise size I was stumped at.

Also, this flop against these types gets checked back a ton, and even if it doesnt check raising is pretty bad and check calling is poor as half the deck sucks for us on the turn oop without the betting lead. That said, I was planning on bet/folding most turns.

[AndyFatBastard]

Folding now is the best option as well I think.

I think folding here is a mistake. $5.50 to call in a $28 pot? Yeah we're beaten a lot, but there's a lot of nice turn cards for us, we price BB in to call with his bag of shite, and we're getting stupidly good odds. Call this, evaluate BBs reaction and the turn card.

[Theresa]

I think folding here is a mistake. $5.50 to call in a $28 pot? Yeah we're beaten a lot, but there's a lot of nice turn cards for us, we price BB in to call with his bag of shite, and we're getting stupidly good odds. Call this, evaluate BBs reaction and the turn card.

Meh, maybe. Can you name some good turn cards though?

also, stupidly good odds for what?

[Sledgejammer]

Any diamond ace or queen. I'm definitely not folding to the min raise. We also have the best hand some percentage of the time, this is a total fish after all, this is occasionally draws or weird stupid hands raising for reasons unknown

[Theresa]

Any diamond ace or queen. I'm definitely not folding to the min raise. We also have the best hand some percentage of the time, this is a total fish after all, this is occasionally draws or weird stupid hands raising for reasons unknown

Ok yeah diamonds improve our equity but its likely we'll have to call another bet on the turn IF we bingo a okish card, and then, we can never fold as the pot is too big and we have top pair.

Aces or queens same deal, even if we do bingo alot of our opponents ranges still have a fair bit of equity against us.

[BobSloane]

What is your plan for the turn say if you are called in one spot. Pot would be 17 and worth protecting. If you bet what is your plan for the river where pot would be ~40 and you would have ~70 behind. If you are called in both spots on the flop it gets more out of control where pot would be heading towards $55 if you bet and get called in one spot on the turn and you would have a little over a psb left. If you check the turn are you going into bluff catching mode for your stack? If you get raised at any point it sucks as is shown on flop even when its only a min-raise. You dont have pre-flop initiative, you are oop, you are deep and you have a good hand on a super wet flop that cant really stand much heat. Its a good spot to take a pot control line imo and protect your stack rather than your hand and check the flop


Having said all that i dont completely hate the lead or anything, it has its merits

[TommyGunne]

Even leading to get it in vs the BB is not smart imo. You really don't want to felt TPTK on this board for 200bb no matter who the villain is.

[Theresa]

Ill reply to Bobs post later.

TG nah it really isnt, I cant stress this enough v this guy. He'll get it in versus me with any top pair, and any draw. Some middle pairs too.

I'll post some hands I have on him if you dont believe me.

[Line Us]

Flop lead is pretty ok imo. I really dont get all the hate for it either.

Flop lead is terrible, it acheives nothing. This flop will rarely get checked behind by a guy on the button who is playing 50% of hands and still has a 3.8 agression factor. he will cbet this with any pair, any draw and most importantly any air. If you have a strong hand here(top 2 pair+)then leading here is good as the really fishy bb will call your donk pretty often and the aggro button will be tempted to raise with a huge range. People hate getting donked into and raise donk bets super wide and not having a plan for getting raised after donking is a bad idea, it happens so often, just check out this stat in HM for aggro players.

Another point is that even if you check and they both happen to check behind the flop, its not that bad a result. Tptk on this board is far from the nuts oop against 2 fishy players, you dont really need to bet for protection or anything.

Folding now is the best option as well I think.

You pretty much have to call now getting such a great price with the backdoor nut straight and flush draw. The bb is likely to call also making it not even close between folding and calling. I havent stoved it though but you'll definitely have enough equity to call even versus tight ranges, never mind against their actual ranges.

[Theresa]

Flop lead is terrible, it acheives nothing. This flop will rarely get checked behind by a guy on the button who is playing 50% of hands and still has a 3.8 agression factor. he will cbet this with any pair, any draw and most importantly any air. If you have a strong hand here(top 2 pair+)then leading here is good as the really fishy bb will call your donk pretty often and the aggro button will be tempted to raise with a huge range. People hate getting donked into and raise donk bets super wide and not having a plan for getting raised after donking is a bad idea, it happens so often, just check out this stat in HM for aggro players.

Another point is that even if you check and they both happen to check behind the flop, its not that bad a result. Tptk on this board is far from the nuts oop against 2 fishy players, you dont really need to bet for protection or anything.

I disagree with most of this. Whatever about playing at 5/10nl or higher and people raising donks real wide. Fish especially, dont at this level and wont without a hand. Its also even more unlikely he is raising my donk super wide given the BB called.

I didnt bet for protection although it is a nice bonus, I bet for value. I figure I get called by worse a lot and rarely raised. Its very possible I could also get raised by worse but its pretty unusual and definitely with this bet size too.

If I check and they both check behind, not only have I lost value (as Im close to 100% certain the bb calls me with worse all the time) but Ive also given both of them infinite odds to draw out.

You pretty much have to call now getting such a great price with the backdoor nut straight and flush draw. The bb is likely to call also making it not even close between folding and calling. I havent stoved it though but you'll definitely have enough equity to call even versus tight ranges, never mind against their actual ranges.

Calling now is meh, I dont hate it, and I see the merits. I actually am coming round to it as Im getting a sick price BUT I still dont see what Im hoping to spike? At this stage I am unlikely to have the best hand. When I lead the flop I was likely to have it, when the BB called I was still very likely. When the BTN min raises its then pretty unlikely.

Added to that, there really isnt many turn cards good for me. An ace is good, as I then dominate all other two pairs, a queen is also good but thats about it. Diamonds dont increase my equity enough to make it ok to continue and I dont ever have fold equity to make up for it.

[Semibluff]

agree that you wont get raised just because you donk led - the majority of players here, esp the bad ones wont realse what that is. They normally just play their cards.

Apart from this point, i agree with everything else Line Us said

Id re raise pre. The only reason i wouldnt is if plan on abusing the buttons cbet agression. So considering we have gone to the flop with an undefined hand, cr > betting out (this is in relation to you wanting to bet for value and to a lesser degree protect your hand, because you get to incorporate in his cbet range (which is massive).

The reason i dont love either lines too much, is we are oop - prob against 2 other players with so many cards we dont like. Check calling is alot better on this flop considering how we got here

[Line Us]

I didnt bet for protection although it is a nice bonus, I bet for value. I figure I get called by worse a lot and rarely raised. Its very possible I could also get raised by worse but its pretty unusual and definitely with this bet size too.

If I check and they both check behind, not only have I lost value (as Im close to 100% certain the bb calls me with worse all the time) but Ive also given both of them infinite odds to draw out.

I definitely think that people will raise donk bets with a wide range here and can definitely do it with worse than AQ but I suppose thats only a small point. What hands is the button going to call your donk bet with here that he wouldnt bet himself in your opinion? I'd agrue very few and theres definitely alot more hands that he will bet this flop when checked to but wont call a donk bet with, your missing value from his air here by not check calling on the flop rather than missing value if he checks behind. The fact that his aggression factor is so high will mean that he cbets close to 100%.

[TheSnapper]

Firstly, 3bet pf to $8.50 / $9.

You are oop versus two loose opponents and most likely have thin equity on this flop, a good amount of both villains range will raise. Donk lead in this spot will result in a bad outcome >90%. Keep the pot small protect your stack.

Also, very valid point made by line Us, "your missing value from his air here by not check calling on the flop"

[Keane]

I definitely think that people will raise donk bets with a wide range here and can definitely do it with worse than AQ but I suppose thats only a small point. What hands is the button going to call your donk bet with here that he wouldnt bet himself in your opinion? I'd agrue very few and theres definitely alot more hands that he will bet this flop when checked to but wont call a donk bet with, your missing value from his air here by not check calling on the flop rather than missing value if he checks behind. The fact that his aggression factor is so high will mean that he cbets close to 100%.

Agree with all of this.