Another Satellite Hand

[Mellor]

Live ANZPT ME Sat, 100+ runners
18 left
14 get tickets ($2,200)
15th gets $1,300

We are 9 handed. I have 21k, average is about 30k.
There are a two big stacks on the table. Everyone one else is about even, except for the BB (11k) and UTG (7k).
Everyone is folding a lot and playing down to very low blind ratios. Blinds just went 1.5k/3k

The BB is folding everything,

I pick up 77 UTG+2,
UTG ships for 7k, I wasn't at his table all night, we only went two tables recently. From What I seen in the last orbit, he has been folding a lot.

If I call, I most likely be the only one. If somebody calls behind, it's checked down always. I can't see anyone getting creative and trying to pick up dead money by shoving behind.
Action to me.

[TommyGunne]

Snapfold

[smoothcall]

Snapfold

Faster imo

[Guest]

Faster imo

Id fold but a lot slower. Build up a nitty rep. At that stage of the game people are concentrating on everything so they will pick up that you prob folded a big hand therefore giving you a better chance of getting a shove through. Plus itstalls time for the possibility of someone on another table getting KO'd.

No doubt you are prob ahead of UTG tho 80% of the time.

[smoothcall]

Id fold but a lot slower. Build up a nitty rep. At that stage of the game people are concentrating on everything so they will pick up that you prob folded a big hand therefore giving you a better chance of getting a shove through. Plus itstalls time for the possibility of someone on another table getting KO'd.

No doubt you are prob ahead of UTG tho 80% of the time.

just lol

[Guest]

just lol

You know im right

[Guest]

Also you mustnt play alot of sats Smoothcall!

The way i said i would play it is standard.

[smoothcall]

Id fold but a lot slower. Build up a nitty rep. At that stage of the game people are concentrating on everything so they will pick up that you prob folded a big hand therefore giving you a better chance of getting a shove through. Plus itstalls time for the possibility of someone on another table getting KO'd.

No doubt you are prob ahead of UTG tho 80% of the time.

this is what I'm loling at. they'll give you credit for folding a big hand. There's just such little sense to that. When I see people timing down in satellites from far ish out I think this guys shitting it and I'll target him, so I guess you do build up a nitty rep, but that means you'll get bullied too.

I don't play a lot of sat's ?? Are ya having a laugh. It's my most profitable tourney format online.

[Jackyback]

Easy fold imo, i would rather be doing the pushing/stealing rather than calling it off with a mid pair this close in a sat situation. Even if he is at it with q9 or j10 you are only a marginal favourite in the hand.

[Raoul Duke III]

I'd be folding TT or JJ here

[NuckChorris]

Agree that it's def a fold. 9 handed means there plenty of chance that there's a better hand waiting behind you. And if someone has a similar stack to yours and there's still 3 to go to the tickets then they're not flatting with QQ, KK, AA or maybe even AK.

[Bubbleking]

I fold without looking

[Closed_Account]

JJ here would be intresting enough imo. I used to hate sats now I love them-such pure structured pain.

[Angry-Ball]

his range is huge he has only 2bbs and once these blinds go through him he is fucked

i think if i was in very late position i think i would be calling. but in early position it's a simple fold.

but just to clarify my late position call would depend on what stacksizes were to act after me, but if as you say evryone else will fold or just check it down then i don't mind calling in late position.

actually just looking at the bb stack i might even fold this in late position cos if he pushed you are pot committed.

from anywhere on the table just fold this.

and just start jam/opening alot more pots if everyone is a scared of their shit of getting bust

[Wesley Harms]

I fold without looking

Stick to giving out healthy eating advice and leave poker to people who know what there talking about imo

[Bubbleking]

Stick to giving out healthy eating advice and leave poker to people who know what there talking about imo

clearly exagerating to underline how much of a fold it is

[Pickles888]

I'd be folding TT or JJ here

snap fold 77, jj i think i'd be callin....

[Raoul Duke III]

I used to hate sats now I love them-such pure structured pain.

lol, how true

actually I'd love to see a good article\post on optimal satellite play. Someone like Doke would be excellent.

[Bubbleking]

lol, how true

actually I'd love to see a good article\post on optimal satellite play. Someone like Doke would be excellent.

1. Take advantage of the suicide kids in the rebuy period

2. run good

3. fold 97% of hands after the rebuys end

[NuckChorris]

actually I'd love to see a good article\post on optimal satellite play. Someone like Doke would be excellent.

+1

[NuckChorris]

1. Take advantage of the suicide kids in the rebuy period

2. run good

3. fold 97% of hands after the rebuys end

-1

[Guest]

I'd be folding TT or JJ here

Only because your a huge nit

[Flushdraw]

I snapfold too.

UTG should have pushed before now rather than get swallowed up by the blinds. I wouldn't assign him a range of ATC, as anyone who allows himself to get that low, is just trying to fold to a ticket/wake up with a monster and isn't jamming with ATC when they still have fold equity.

I think a flat call by you would be horrible here. I would hate to have 77 here and check it down, becasue you will have to dodge over half the deck to hold up. i'd only be playing if i was jamming and trying to get HU. FWIW, if you had KQ/KJs here, i'd be more inclined to shove since UTGs range has a higher chance of including J9/J10/Q10/QJ type hands so your hand would play pretty well here.

The only position i would call with 77 here, is if i was in the BB and had 3k commited already.

[Maloney]

actually I'd love to see a good article\post on optimal satellite play. Someone like Doke would be excellent.

+2

[TommyGunne]

I think I fold QQ here.

[Raoul Duke III]

I think I fold QQ here.

really? I think I ship but then my understanding of ICM is minimal

we're ahead of villain's range, win here and we pick up 11.5k which will more or less guarantee us a ticket.

If villain is ahead of us or racing with AK so be it, equally if someone else wakes up with AA or KK behind us.

[Flushdraw]

I think I fold QQ here.

Surely that would be pretty bad? We don't have enough chips to fold into a ticket, and chances are we are going to have to push with worse pretty soon.

I'd much rather ship with QQ after another player shoves, than just steal the blinds a little later on.

We win, we have 32.5k which will be pretty much bang on average with 17 players left and 15 prizes. I think JJ could be a fold, but i wouldn't be folding QQ

[TommyGunne]

Yeah actually I think I just put it in with QQ. I thought he had a larger % of our stack, and we'd still be OK with 5bb. I'd imagine we only need about 60-65% to shove here, I'd go for the higher end cos of the offchance of people behind us waking up with KK+. And I'd be very surprised if we didn't have 65% here. We might need mid to high 60s though. JJ has no blockers to hands someone behind can overshove, while QQ blocks the other QQ too, so theres an extra % or so on top of hand value.

77 is obv a fold though.

I'd imagine villain is shoving about 40% of hands as a rough guess, or at least he should be. Maybe 45% or so.

[DrJFF]

i see nothing wrong with folding everything bar AA and KK

[Mellor]

Thanks to everyone who put in a decent reply.
+1 and fold etc don't really contribute. I just want to see peoples thoughts on the situation, specifically the reason for folding.

Some comments;

Id fold but a lot slower. Build up a nitty rep. At that stage of the game people are concentrating on everything so they will pick up that you prob folded a big hand therefore giving you a better chance of getting a shove through.

To go a bit further than Smoothcall's "lol" (which I agree with btw). Did you honestly think that one dwell/fold (that people might not even notice) would build any sort of image. The previous 6 hours of play are hardly meaningless.

actually I'd love to see a good article\post on optimal satellite play. Someone like Doke would be excellent.

A very good article I read years ago was "The Bear, Rounders, War-games and B"
It's pretty good, the B concept is actually great way to classify when you are in the do not play any hands position.
I'll try find a link.

I'd imagine villain is shoving about 40% of hands as a rough guess, or at least he should be. Maybe 45% or so.

I'd say about 50% is right.

[Mellor]

Thanks to everyone who put in a decent reply.
+1 and fold etc don't really contribute. I just want to see peoples thoughts on the situation, specifically the reason for folding.

Some comments;

To go a bit further than Smoothcall's "lol" (which I agree with btw). Did you honestly think that one dwell/fold (that people might not even notice) would build any sort of image. The previous 6 hours of play are hardly meaningless.


A very good article I read years ago was "The Bear, Rounders, War-games and B"
It's pretty good, the B concept is actually great way to classify when you are in the do not play any hands position.
I'll try find a link.



I'd say about 50% is right.

I think that's all the replies so, results I suppose.

I folded, but the guy beside me (who I would generally rate as a good player) seen my cards. Before the action was complete he said I should of called. In the end the button called with AJ and was shown KT. Board came out with a 7 on the flop which "proved" his point, was ahead of KT etc.

Anyway, just wanted to hear the consensus, make sure I wasn't overly tight. Had I called, it would of been guaranteed ticket, instead, the correct fold got me the eventual bubble.

[Flushdraw]

Anyway, just wanted to hear the consensus, make sure I wasn't overly tight. Had I called, it would of been guaranteed ticket, instead, the correct fold got me the eventual bubble.

That's ugly. Unlucky Mellor