Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

pok3rplaya thread 2010

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    pok3rplaya thread 2010

    Villain is a decent reg I guess. 29/21/2.2. He doesn't 3bet all that much but messes with me on flops some. I c/f this flop a bit, triple it a bit and wen't for a c/r this time.

    Is it worth shoving the river to fold him off a split?

    No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    BB ($100)
    UTG ($99.13)
    MP ($147.63)
    Button ($105.15)
    Hero (SB) ($100)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, K
    3 folds, Hero bets $3.50, BB calls $3

    Flop: ($8) 2, 4, 5 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BB bets $4, Hero raises $14.25, BB calls $10.25

    Turn: ($36.50) 3 (2 players)
    Hero bets $23, BB calls $23

    River: ($82.50) A (2 players)
    Hero ???

    #2
    I really dislike the cr here-result based but meh I dont get it.

    When he calls on the turn Id guess hes close to never folding the river. Plus he can have backdoor spades a decent amount aswell.

    Comment


      #3
      This looks really spewy. I'd say he's folding the river 0% of the time and he has some 6s in his range, no? And the occasional backdoor spades too.

      Comment


        #4
        Yeah I dunno I'm pretty confused about this hand overall.

        I think when he bet/calls the flop he usually has something like

        3x: A3, 34s. Say 6 combos here
        Ax: Say 7 combos of each Ax since sometimes he wont bet the flop when checked to with them. So, lest say 80 combo's of Ax.
        6x: 65s, 64s, A6, 67s, 68s, 69s. Say 23 combo's here
        other stuff: lets say 30 combos of 88 etc.

        His turn range is all the Ax, half the 6x (since he shoves some % of the time), he probably folds all of the other stuff category and folds the 3x stuff.

        So on the river he has like 60 comb's of Ax and 11 combo's of 6x and then maybe 6 combo's of random spades crap (remember he can't has Axss).

        So, if I shove and he folds a split, then I win $82.50
        I shove and he calls a split = I win $41.25

        therefore if he has a split and folds it 50% of the time and calls 50% then I win ($82.508.5)+($41.258.5) = $62

        When he calls with better than a split then I lose $60.

        He calls with better than a split 23% of the time so -$60*.23= -$14
        77% of the time I win $62 (like I worked out above) so .77*62= $47.7

        47.7-14= $34

        So, shoving the river is +EV by $34!

        €50 says less than 3 people read all that.
        Another €50 says it's wrong!
        Last edited by pok3rplaya; 02-02-10, 11:02.

        Comment


          #5
          I think you guys are definitely wrong about him never folding the river here. I mean if one of you posted a hand where you snapped the river as the villain hoping to split at best when you can be losing to any 6x or spades then I think a lot of people would have the flames out!

          Comment


            #6
            Don't really get the flop check raise. Seems bad. River is meh. Can't really see how you can ever represent a 6 or a flush and I dont think him having either is impossible.
            Looking for full or part time poker and betting writers. PM if interested.

            Comment


              #7
              About the c/r,

              I mean it's obviously not necessary or anything but everyone and their mother knows that I miss this flop a lot and will mess with me if I try to cbet. They also know that if I check this flop than it's usually to go. So, I think that when I check he fires 100% of his air and I can just c/r and take him off it. Failing him folding right there there's cards I can rep on the turn and he probably doesn't have a clue where he's at.

              I'm not really sure what the problem is with it?

              Comment


                #8
                I'd just cbet the flop, don't like the CR at all.

                Comment


                  #9
                  I dont like the cr simply as we have literally no hand and little chance of making anything decent and are going to be oop with a bigish pot devolping on the turn. Like the turn is one of the better cards that we can barrel and even then any turn that your repping will pound his range a bit aswell.

                  I dont think its the best board to cr and expect it to get through a lot v a capable reg who has called a raise from the big blind.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by jbravado View Post
                    I dont like the cr simply as we have literally no hand and little chance of making anything decent and are going to be oop with a bigish pot devolping on the turn. Like the turn is one of the better cards that we can barrel and even then any turn that your repping will pound his range a bit aswell.

                    I dont think its the best board to cr and expect it to get through a lot v a capable reg who has called a raise from the big blind.
                    This plus what hands would you ever CR there for value?

                    Comment


                      #11
                      The problem is what kind of hands will fold here IP, 22-JJ calls, lots of s/c call like 34,45,56,67 possibly 78, AK,KQ,AQ,AJ and obviously AA-QQ are most likely going to be 3betting so not in hes range so when we check raise were folding out such a small range that we are behind to so we end up creating a bloated pot OOP with hands we've terrible equity against to fold out hands we already beat.

                      I know what your saying though that people will rep this board so often when we cbet but check/x probably isn't the most profitable line as i think a set or overpair rarely check calls or check raises so you are right when you check he will bet with almost all hes range but theres too many hands that will call IP for it to be successful. If you wouldn't do this with 22,44-55 and 88+ which we wouldnt expect you to then your not repping a strong enough range for him to fold often enough.

                      With that in mind id bet/fold, bet/3bet here as that is harder to counteract, if hes raising here too much then he cant call a 3bet profitably so we bet/3bet more, if hes not being overly aggro on these boards then bet/fold more often.

                      I'm not a huge fan of the river push although i think 6x raises that turn a lot so we can rule that out a decent bit and checking might induce him to bluff it too and thus you could essentially lose a lot of equity or be faced with a horrible river decision by checking it so i guess its not too bad if its likely to get you paid off on similar boards in the future the times he does call down.

                      I find regs tend to be honest enough on these kind of boards at 100nl though.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Meh I dunno, maybe I'm giving people too much credit but I really think that bet/folding this flop a lot or check/folding it a lot is a leak against anyone half decent.

                        Plus dvd I disagree that he bet/folds a thin range when I c/r, any hand with 2 cards bigger than 6 and smaller than Ace are bet/folding. Thats a ton of hands when you consider that I opened in the SB and he's probably calling really light out of the BB.

                        An I think you're all exaggerating how easy it is to get in a tough spot on future streets. The plan is pretty simple, just bet/fold any card higher than a 9 and any 3 or 6. Not much room for error really and thats a ton of cards we can barrel so he can't just float our flop c/r easily.

                        Some interesting points made though so thanks for that everyone. You're all wrong though!

                        Anyway today kicked up 2 brag hands. Hand one vs a looseish reg:

                        No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

                        saw flop | saw showdown

                        Button ($49.75)
                        SB ($49.50)
                        Hero (BB) ($54.82)
                        UTG ($80.80)

                        Preflop: Hero is BB with 2, A
                        1 fold, Button bets $1.43, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.93

                        Flop: ($3.11) 10, 5, Q (2 players)
                        Hero bets $2.15, Button calls $2.15

                        Turn: ($7.41) 2 (2 players)
                        Hero bets $5, Button calls $5

                        River: ($17.41) 4 (2 players)
                        Hero checks, Button bets $10.50, Hero calls $10.50

                        Total pot: $38.41

                        Results:
                        Button had 8, J (high card, Queen).
                        Hero had 2, A (one pair, twos).
                        Outcome: Hero won $36.51


                        and this one against a guy I 3bet the previous hand also:

                        No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

                        saw flop | saw showdown

                        Hero (BB) ($52.95)
                        UTG ($42.07)
                        MP ($30.60)
                        Button ($50.70)
                        SB ($65.37)

                        Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, A
                        3 folds, SB bets $0.75, Hero raises $2.75, SB calls $2.25

                        Flop: ($6.50) 2, 3, 3 (2 players)
                        SB bets $6.50, Hero calls $6.50

                        Turn: ($19.50) 4 (2 players)
                        SB bets $9.75, Hero calls $9.75

                        River: ($39) 9 (2 players)
                        SB bets $29.25, Hero calls $29.25

                        Total pot: $97.50

                        Results:
                        SB had 7, J (one pair, threes).
                        Hero had 10, A (one pair, threes).
                        Outcome: Hero won $94.50

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by pok3rplaya View Post
                          Plus dvd I disagree that he bet/folds a thin range when I c/r, any hand with 2 cards bigger than 6 and smaller than Ace are bet/folding. Thats a ton of hands when you consider that I opened in the SB and he's probably calling really light out of the BB.
                          I meant he bet folds a thin range that your behind to. Basically AJ-A7 maybe A6 and sometimes theyll even make a stubborn call and also behind to KQ and KJ high, almost all other hands were already ahead or they wont fold often enough so im not mad about check raising to fold them out as your turning the best hand into a bluff too often and getting called too often with better hands, mostly because when we take the check/raise or check/call option we broadcast our hand as semibluffs mostly if we check raise or showdown hands if we check call and he can remove junk and monsters from our range because i dont see regs playing sets, 2 pair, overpairs or straights like this very often. Why would we check here with a big hand when hes going to raise a cbet a lot?

                          With the check we give out too much information (unless your playing a smaller pool and youve lots of history and he knows you might play tricky) where in comparison if you bet/fold and bet/raise as a default here then your range is not defined, its now semibluffs, air, sets, straights, 2 pair and you can still win the pot some of the time with a standard cbet and a 3bet and other times just bet/fold. I do agree check folding or bet folding here too much is bad just i differ that betting here is better than checking as it gives away too much info about your hand and makes it harder to play for you and easier for him.

                          You could argue that you'll also play sets and monsters like this to balance but by the time you do get to showdown if the villain even takes a note youll have lost too much value so its pointless check raising your big hands for meta-game just play the most profitable way until you've enough history.
                          Last edited by dvdfan; 02-02-10, 18:13.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Yeah good post, I'm sold.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Can you please give me some insight into those two brag hands you posted above? Do you really think they're profitable because in isolation it looks horrible and I really hate saying that because I know you're about 17 times the player that I am but I just can't get my head around them at all!

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Just to further elaborate on the flop cr in hand 1.

                                I really hate it. The reasoning you give for it is that you think he messes with you on the flop a lot. If thats the case then its better by far to b/3b or something than c/r. The best way to defend your flop checks is to c/c with decent hands, not to c/r.
                                Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  [QUOTE=pok3rplaya;5593]Meh I dunno, maybe I'm giving people too much credit but I really think that bet/folding this flop a lot or check/folding it a lot is a leak against anyone half decent.

                                  No one at 100nl is half decent based on what your judgement of half decent is - ie a good midstakes reg

                                  I wouldnt put a huge emphasis on trying to play unexploitably

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by AdMMM View Post
                                    Can you please give me some insight into those two brag hands you posted above? Do you really think they're profitable because in isolation it looks horrible and I really hate saying that because I know you're about 17 times the player that I am but I just can't get my head around them at all!
                                    Well they're both heavily reads/situation based.

                                    First one the dude open really light on OTB and is generally pretty aggressive but not very good. I'm not sure if I like my flop lead to be honest but I'm just leading because I can pick up the pot sometimes, set up multiple barrels and it's hard for him to raise me because I could 3bet shove KJ or the NFD or something. Also note that I have a BDFD and 2 BD straight draws. Turn I'm VBing against his draws and bluffing his pairs < Qx. River I notice that his range is heavily heavily missed gutshots and OESDs and FD's an all that jazz and I know he won't VB less than a Q if I check to him so I know I can c/c profitably which I do.


                                    Second one I was pounding on the dude a bit and I noticed he was getting a bit pissed off at me. He also called like every 3bet with 100% of this range. When he leads the flop it's just an obvious dumb bluff because he would never donk something strong there because he would want me to cbet. Turn is the same, his range is like 90% air, like how many 2x, 3x or 4x hands does he have? River was close because I thought he might have binked back door clubs but I wasn't gonna go 2 streets with the guy and then fold just because of that when he can have 456 combo's of air so I clicked call.

                                    Thats it really.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by budbundy07 View Post
                                      Originally posted by pok3rplaya View Post
                                      Meh I dunno, maybe I'm giving people too much credit but I really think that bet/folding this flop a lot or check/folding it a lot is a leak against anyone half decent.
                                      No one at 100nl is half decent based on what your judgement of half decent is - ie a good midstakes reg

                                      I wouldnt put a huge emphasis on trying to play unexploitably
                                      Check raising the flop is doing the opposite of trying to play unexploitably.

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        top thread. Some well reasoned posts and a concession from pok3rplaya. What a tangled web this adjusting lark is.
                                        "Being wrong is erroneously associated with failure, when, in fact, to be proven wrong should be celebrated, for it elevates someone to a new level of understanding."

                                        Comment

                                        Working...
                                        X