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SPORTS BETTING LOG 2013

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    SPORTS BETTING LOG 2013

    this is my 3rd log on here to do with sports betting,first was pure shite,2nd was better but not great over all.hopefully have improved on decision making & value concepts mainly on horse racing & rugby,should be interesting to see if they can be turned into profit in the long run.going to give myself a 200 point bank and log bets in real time with a very strict brm with a confidence scale of 1-5 points.
    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

    #2
    Good luck amber, as you said your second log was a lot better than the first, hopefully the trajectory continues.

    Comment


      #3
      May not be of particular interest to you but maybe you should keep an eye on the American Sports a bit less variance imo. Perfect time with NBA playoffs so results are a bit easier to predict.

      GL with it

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by brady23 View Post
        May not be of particular interest to you but maybe you should keep an eye on the American Sports a bit less variance imo. Perfect time with NBA playoffs so results are a bit easier to predict.

        GL with it
        I hope you do not include Baseball in that probably hardest sport to make money on.

        NBA playoffs I agree its easier in play offs then in regular season.

        American Football I think is the easier off all US sports to make money on seems to be less variance on it.Often value in under overs too depending on teams playing etc.

        Comment


          #5
          Easy to predict just means the bookies' prices are going to be spot on, no?

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by corigi View Post
            I hope you do not include Baseball in that probably hardest sport to make money on.

            NBA playoffs I agree its easier in play offs then in regular season.

            American Football I think is the easier off all US sports to make money on seems to be less variance on it.Often value in under overs too depending on teams playing etc.
            All I know about baseball is what I learned from Moneyball mainly talking NFL and NBA

            Comment


              #7
              know very little about american sports,for that alone i wouldn't touch them.tbh think there's very little edge and a good working knowledge of what your betting on is a must.also think that people seem to put too much emphasis on results reckon its how you came to the conclusion in the first place might need a little work and given a decent sample size,the results will look after themselfs which is the plan here.
              anyways kicking off with a 1 pointer on sportsline @ 6/1 in the 5.55 in ballinrobe.

              bank 199
              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

              Comment


                #8
                Are you going to be varying your bet sizes or just betting a standard single unit for the most part?

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by Keane View Post
                  Are you going to be varying your bet sizes or just betting a standard single unit for the most part?
                  mainly 1 point,but will up it from time to time.mainly to do with what i think is win percentage and making a comparison to live odds,the bigger the discrepancy than the bigger the bet is the theory behind it all.
                  anyways Daigreen @ 7/1 in the 6.55 tipperary & Ninjago @ 13/2 in the 4.10 ascot for a point each

                  bank 197
                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                  Comment


                    #10
                    first winner of the log with Ninjago with a sp of 7/1 bringing the bank up to 205.just the 1 point on Faleena @ 11/1 in the 6.30 tipperary.

                    bank 204
                    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                    Comment


                      #11
                      In Salutem @ 7/2(wh) dundalk 7.10 for 2 points.

                      bank 202
                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Just saw this, best of luck Amberleaf. Might try do something similar myself

                        Comment


                          #13
                          nice win there, gluck with this
                          https://twitter.com/#!/TedCullinane1

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by conspicuous View Post
                            Just saw this, best of luck Amberleaf. Might try do something similar myself
                            cant do any harm to keep a log,look back at the bets & see what you might have missed,definitely opened my eyes to a few things since i started.


                            Originally posted by shanboghted View Post
                            nice win there, gluck with this
                            nice looking horse alright,had a look back at his runs last year & seems to have Progressed a bit,could be on a upward curve & worth keeping a eye on.naas seems to be the plan but needs good going.anyways bank up to 211.just sticking a point on What A Name in the 1000 guineas @ 5/1.

                            bank 210
                            Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Double Double @ 5/1 in the 8.35 navan is where the dart landed,was well fancied in limerick last time when going off the 3/1 fav.(on heavy over 1m3f-R78).over 1m5f (R77)this evening on yielding & has conor king (7ex) to help.at 5/1 worth 2 points given the profile.

                              bank 208
                              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Just back from the hols Amber , best of luck, decent start.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                  Just back from the hols Amber , best of luck, decent start.
                                  cheers lad,ended up having a very good april,came with a bit of a wet sail after a poor start hopefully keep the show on the road.anyways did one of these statistically based bets on the chester cup which is off at 2.45 with the pin landing on the weld trained Olympiad @ 12/1,could do with a little more experience perhaps but fits well all the same.used this method in the big handicaps and the nationals over the jumps and worked out very well with a nice few winners at decent odds.Justification (@ 5/1)scored poorly in this,will be interesting to see if it transfers to the flat.

                                  also giving Imaginationrunwild @ 7/1 a point on the nose in the 6.50 gowran park,plenty of money behind her last monday when not running to her best finishing 9th,for me she's still worth a look at her current mark with her trainer getting one home yesterday with the ground drying out.

                                  so a point e/w on Olympiad @ 12s with 4 places payed at a 1/4 the odds & a point win on Imaginationrunwild @ 7/1 with the bank now standing at 205
                                  Last edited by amberleaf; 08-05-13, 09:56.
                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Olympiad ended up at the back of the 17 runner field after a few furlongs which is where you don't want to be in chester and never got in to race at all.

                                    sticking 2 points on the tommy stack trained Your Pal Tal @ 8/1 in the 4.25 chester with fallon on board and running from stall 1,this is the trainers only horse running in england today(has Almanack running here tomorrow).its over 6 furlongs with 14 runners left in,the over all draw bias surprisingly not as clear cut as over 5 furlongs,with stalls from 1-12 (with the exception of stall 3)winning over the past 10 years.but when you input the field size which today is 14 than stall 1&2 seem to have a pretty big edge and are 6 winners from 7 runnings,input the going which is good and we get 4 winners from 4 runnings,looks to be on a decent mark with his last run in cork on heavy which clearly didn't suit after leading until 2 furlongs out before fadeing finishing last.could be a little more to come from him and given the going,travel distance,stall etc worth a gamble at the odds for me.

                                    bank 103
                                    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      sticking 2 points on the tommy stack trained Your Pal Tal @ 8/1 in the 4.25 chester with fallon on board and running from stall 1,this is the trainers only horse running in england today(has Almanack running here tomorrow).its over 6 furlongs with 14 runners left in,the over all draw bias surprisingly not as clear cut as over 5 furlongs,with stalls from 1-12 (with the exception of stall 3)winning over the past 10 years.but when you input the field size which today is 14 than stall 1&2 seem to have a pretty big edge and are 6 winners from 7 runnings,input the going which is good and we get 4 winners from 4 runnings,looks to be on a decent mark with his last run in cork on heavy which clearly didn't suit after leading until 2 furlongs out before fadeing finishing last.could be a little more to come from him and given the going,travel distance,stall etc worth a gamble at the odds for me.


                                      no joy yesterday with your pal tal running out of steam where it mattered most,Effie B who was draw from stall 2 ended up winning @ 12/1(was 16s at one stage) so at the very least the over all reasoning wasn't the worst and worth keeping in mind in future.anyways back to chester and again the draw bias in the 3.15 which is over 5 furlongs,there's a massive edge here with low numbers but just about everybody knows about it which in turn means that horses drawn from low numbers are overbet and tend to be little or no value.but when you take in the going which today is good/soft than it seems to tell a different story,the sample size is very small with just 6 races to refer to over the last ten years on this going but it shows that stall 4 =2 winners,stall 6 = 1 winner,stall 9 = 2 winners & stall 10 = 1 winner with no winners at all from stalls 1,2 or 3.with this in mind going for a one pointer on All Ablaze @ 8/1, who is trained by damian english and has rory cleary booked(has 2 rides at the meeting,both for this trainer),is in very good form winning his last 3 including one on soft,but as a result is now rated 84.drawn from stall 8 might not be as bad as it seems given the results over the past ten years on soft ground and has won making all before,give him a punt at the odds.

                                      in cork the two 5 furlong races are out the gone due to the heavy going,as a result the 7 furlong is split in two.in the 6.40 September Lily will surly pop the cherry given the recent good form on the going and the depleted field where most of the other horses have shown very little on soft/heavy.she's 6/5 to win this and even at that price looks a little value and worthy of a decent size bet so going to give her the first 5 pointer of the log.
                                      1 point win on All Ablaze @ 8/1 in the 3.15 chester & 5 point win on September Lily @ 6/5 in the 6.40 cork with the bank now standing at 197.

                                      edit;just saw that all ablaze is drawn stall 12,major boo-boo on my part will be doing well to land it from there
                                      Last edited by amberleaf; 10-05-13, 11:34. Reason: made mistake with stall draw
                                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        made a big mistake with the race in chester when misreading the stall draw above,as it turned out the winner came from stall 8,seems the draw bias over 5 furlongs moves from stalls 1-4 to middle stalls on soft going,which is handy given the money horse which went off fav after a major gamble today ran from stall 1.so that trend still stands.September Lily won in the end, staying on the heavy going with a starting price of 6/4 for a return of 12.5 points.bringing the bank to 209.5 points.

                                        taking 2 against the field in the 3.50 ascot,which is a massive class 2 handicap over 7 furlongs with no less than 29 runners,most but not all bookmakers are paying 5 places in this,with 1/4 the odds,obv the ones that are paying the 5 places are the ones to place any bets with.going with Tartiflette @ 14/1 & Dream Tune @ 16/1 for a point each way on both,with the bank now standing at 205.5
                                        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          just noticed that tommy stack had just the one horse running in ireland today which won in cork this evening,Cape Of Approval in the 5.35 it was also wayne lordens only booking at the meeting which leads me on to Scream Blue Murder who is stacks only runner in england and again has lorden booked for his only ride of the day in the 3.55 nottingham,they think a lot of this horse but has only won on heavy going,she's only had the 4 runs in total but was 2nd behind Maarek last time out and 5th behind Sky Lantern last year which isn't too shabby by any means.this is the first time she'll meet good to firm and will be up against higher rated horses,but at 4/1 going to give her a point on the nose

                                          bank 104.5
                                          Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            not the worst day over all with Dream Tune finishing 5th in ascot for a return of 5 points & Scream Blue Murder winning at nottingham for a return of 5 points also, bringing the bank up to 114.5 points.in the 1000 guineas trial which is off at 3.25 leopardstown,Rawaaq @ 5/2 looks worth a wee nibble to get the better of the bolger trained We'll Go Walking(7/4),could be better suited by the mile trip,plenty of other dangers as ever but Rawaaq had Snow Queen back in 3rd last time over 7 furlongs,Snow Queen went on to finish a 2.5 length 5th behind Sky Lantern in the 1000 guineas in newmarket,which for me anyways looks a decent boost to the form line on that race.

                                            2 point @ 5/2 bringing the bank to 112.5
                                            Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              no joy yesterday with Rawaaq,just a tiny each way on Prince Of Forwards @ 18/1 in the killarney 7.10,was chasing for the past year came into form last time when winning in kilbeggan(off 94),will be off 108 this evening back over hurdles with 5lb ex which in effect brings him down to his last winning mark of 103,plenty of dangers as always but at the odds give him a half a point each way,also putting a point on Matrooh @ 3/1 in the 2.10 doncaster, haggas trained horses tend to come on a lot on the 2nd run and should be thereabouts.

                                              bank 110.5
                                              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Dafuq?
                                                Thought you had a 200 point bank?
                                                ﴾͡๏̯͡๏﴿

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Micknail View Post
                                                  Dafuq?
                                                  Thought you had a 200 point bank?
                                                  yes indeed,bank is 210.5 ty sir.
                                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    Well done at Donny Amber, don't mean to rub salt in a wound but haven't you mentioned that Irish soul on here before?

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      yup,one of the lads on here put him up a few months ago and backed him when he ran in fairyhouse,had a look at him yesterday but in my wisdom past him over for the horse that was pulled up after a few miles,at least Matrooh won so a return of 4 points bringing the bank to 214.5.not much to get the juices flowing for me today tbh,just a half a point each way on Havelock Ellis @ 12/1 in the 7.50 killarney,first time blinkers and rated 47 with another 3 lbs ex,(last ran off 50 when finishing a 4.5 length 6th),first run of the season and a few quid this morning for the horse.might run better than the price,who knows,touch of the roll the dice about it.

                                                      bank 213.5
                                                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        seems the forecast is for rain in york which would suit irish raider Maarek in the G2 which is off at 3.15,in very good form winning his first run back beating Scream Blue Murder who in turn has gone on to win a listed in nottingham over the weekend.11/2 is the best price as of now and give him a point each way.in the woodlands hcp in naas which is off at 6.20 Roseraie @ 14/1 ties in nicely with the above selection,when finishing a dead heat 3rd behind both maarek & Scream Blue Murder at naas over 5 furlongs,has since finished a 3 length 5th behind the guineas bound Viztoria,with 4 places paid at 1/4 the odds worth a point each way for me.

                                                        bank 209.5 points
                                                        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          no joy for me yesterday going for a little punt on Chancery @ 12/1 in the last in york,a 17 runner hcp over 2 miles,just two runs this year over 1m4f which looks too short with the eye catching form from last year,finishing 2nd behind the new one over 1m6f,could be well handicapped here going back up in distance.just a point each way with ladbrokes paying 1/4 the odds first four.

                                                          bank 207.5
                                                          Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            going for a little punt on Chancery @ 12/1 in the last in york,a 17 runner hcp over 2 miles,just two runs this year over 1m4f which looks too short with the eye catching form from last year,finishing 2nd behind the new one over 1m6f,could be well handicapped here going back up in distance.just a point each way with ladbrokes paying 1/4 the odds first four.

                                                            no joy with the one above with Chancery finishing last,notice the race was won by j.j. o neills only runner in york with fran berry booked(one of just 2 bookings on the day),which was a bit of a hint in itself.taking a similar view on Royal Diamond in the 2.45 york,trained in ireland by tommy Carmody and is niall mccullaghs only ride of the day.was 2nd in the ebor last year before going on the win irish st. leger(both under mccullagh).also see that cavalryman who was the 5/2 fav is out which can only help,8/1 with 8 runners left in going for a 2 pointer e/w.

                                                            bank 203.5
                                                            Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                              going for a little punt on Chancery @ 12/1 in the last in york,a 17 runner hcp over 2 miles,just two runs this year over 1m4f which looks too short with the eye catching form from last year,finishing 2nd behind the new one over 1m6f,could be well handicapped here going back up in distance.just a point each way with ladbrokes paying 1/4 the odds first four.

                                                              no joy with the one above with Chancery finishing last,notice the race was won by j.j. o neills only runner in york with fran berry booked(one of just 2 bookings on the day),which was a bit of a hint in itself.taking a similar view on Royal Diamond in the 2.45 york,trained in ireland by tommy Carmody and is niall mccullaghs only ride of the day.was 2nd in the ebor last year before going on the win irish st. leger(both under mccullagh).also see that cavalryman who was the 5/2 fav is out which can only help,8/1 with 8 runners left in going for a 2 pointer e/w.

                                                              bank 203.5
                                                              I like RD too FWIW, but do you realise 8/1 is the worst price available? He is 11/1 1/5 odds in two places and 10/1 1/4 in one more. Edges are small enough, you cannot possibly win in the long run without being ruthless about price.

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                yup bang on,12/1 early and price reverted to sp at 8.56 am after Cavalryman was withdrawn,was mainly 8/1 but was 10/1 with a few firms when priced back up(9.02 am),good shout.
                                                                Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  a return of 6.4 points with Royal Diamond in 3rd @ 11/1 bringing the bank to 209.9.just a half point e/w on Burn The Boats @ 25/1 in the 240 newbury,with all books paying 1/4 the odds,4 places,
                                                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                    #34
                                                                    Burn The Boats ran well for the price finishing 4th with a return of 3.6 points with the bank now at 212.4.
                                                                    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #35
                                                                      going for a 3 pointer on Voleuse De Coeurs in the 4.15 navan @ 9/4,extra few furlongs should help.

                                                                      bank 209.4
                                                                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #36
                                                                        Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                        going for a 3 pointer on Voleuse De Coeurs in the 4.15 navan @ 9/4,extra few furlongs should help.

                                                                        bank 209.4
                                                                        Good shout Amber! Building up nicely to the first 5 pointer!

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          #37
                                                                          yup she won very well to be fair,weld seems to have big plans for her and worth keeping a eye on me thinks,anyways bank now at 219.15
                                                                          Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #38
                                                                            not much going on today with a mixed card at roscommon with the going heavy,Nouveau Moulin @ 7/2 is where the pin landed in the 7.00.she has a few wins under her belt in the nhf over 2 miles on the going,and was 2nd last time out behind Marchese Marconi on soft to heavy over 1m6f,she'll have to handle the trip back to 1m3f but worth a point at the odds.

                                                                            bank 218.15
                                                                            Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                              #39
                                                                              the two jays looks a bet to me in the 8.10 sligo @ 4/1(from 7/2),won last time out over 2 miles at the track when rated 80 beating the well backed Hurricane Jojo (off 90)by 5 lengths,trainer reported afterwards that "He got his wind done" since his last run which obviously helped,has a extra 4 furlongs this evening but could be more to come rated 86.a few dangers as ever with Givemeabuzz (2/1) who looked unlucky when making a mistake at the last in Limerick last sunday,but stopped quickly enough there after which is a little concern.at the odds give him a wee punt of 2 points

                                                                              2 points win,the two jays @ 4/1

                                                                              bank 216.15
                                                                              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                #40
                                                                                fair poor effort yesterday with the two jays not up to much,notice ger lyons is sending over Harmonic Note to contest the 3.45 in goodwood which is a listed fillies over 1m1f.shes the top rated of these,shes had a few runs this year both were on poor enough going & according to the trainer will appreciate good racing ground which she'll get here today.has Spencer booked and holds entries in a group 3 in cork as well as the oaks.Research in to the draw bias shows there doesn't seem to be one on the stats over the past 10 years over the trip.best odds out there of 11/2 and give her a point e/w

                                                                                bank 214.15
                                                                                Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  Harmonic Note just about held on for 3rd with a sp of 6/1 so a return of 2.2 points,see that our old pal irish soul is out again this evening in cork 7.10 over 2m4f,has paddy mangan on board(has 4 bookings) and is the trainers only runner at the meeting(owners local track) and is now best priced @ 11/1 but this looks very competitive with a lot of these horses meeting good racing ground for the first time in a long time but has never won of a rating of above 111 and runs of 115 today could still run a good one but with 22 runners in this, going for a horse with good ground form in the past that has dropped a little in the ratings on heavy and the pin landed on Salesin @ 14/1,has form at the track with 3 wins from 4 races with the loss on soft/heavy,is off 122 this evening and has won off 127 over hurdles(has won off 132 chase) and is trainers niall maddens only runner at the meeting,worth a point each way for me @ 14/1 with 4 places paid @ 1/4 the odds,but its a gamble with so many potential improvers.

                                                                                  bank 214.35
                                                                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    see that fran berry is booked on sole power in the temple stakes in haydock.murtagh has his first runners officially in the 2,000 guineas,with Ask Dad & Fort Knox but almost every box in the booked is ticked by Magician @ 9/4.
                                                                                    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      Salesin was a non runner so 2 points back so bank 216.35

                                                                                      going for a 3 pointer on Ralston Road @ 10/3 in the last in chester,jp shanahan has 3 running here today and thinks a lot of him,(trainer intends to run him in the irish derby) this is a class 4 hcp,drawn 1 and runs up with the pace which will suit on a track like chester.

                                                                                      bank 213.35
                                                                                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        sticking a point e/w on burn the boats in the curragh 4.25,backed him last week when he turned up in newbury and showed the good ground helped when finishing a close up 4th(25/1-16/1 sp),he was injured and has put that behind him,also won his maiden over a mile(todays distance)plenty of dangers in a hcp of 23 runners,but could be on a upward curve still holding a rating of 87(same as his last run)draw not the best.give a point e/w @ 10/1 with 1/4 the odds 4 places.

                                                                                        bank 211.35
                                                                                        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Well done and unlucky not to sneak a place with burn the boats. Didn't get a great run last 2f, but campanology was even more unlucky IMO and definitely one to keep an eye on.

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                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            cheers good sir,even if he did his best to throw it away by hanging right.no joy with burn the boats but some gamble landed on the winner,agree with campanology,worth keeping a eye on.anyways bank up to 224.35

                                                                                            going for another 3 pointer on Just The Judge in the 1,000 guineas,yup she's the fav and nothing unusual about backing her but she ticks so many boxes with the trends and profile, making her hard enough to get away from.also notice that tony martin sends over a horse for the bumper off 6.00 in kelso which is a little unusual,might be worth a look when priced up in the morning.stuart crawford also has one running in the 5.30 kelso he has a great record in these races but is priced accordingly.

                                                                                            bank 221.35
                                                                                            Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              just sticking a point e/w on Bob Le Beau @ 16/1 in the 2.15 curragh,had a few runs out in meydan a few months back finishing a length 4th in a 16k hcp with that form working out fairly well afterwards,and finished well down the field in a 640k hcp which was well out of reach.have to go back a few years but has landed a few decent pots in his time including this race 2 years ago when rated 103,off 100 for this,worth a punt at the odds imo with 4 places @ 1/4 the odds paid.

                                                                                              bank 219.35
                                                                                              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                not much going on with Bob Le Beau finishing well down the field.
                                                                                                notice that tony martin sends over a horse for the bumper off 6.00 in kelso which is a little unusual,might be worth a look when priced up in the morning.stuart crawford also has one running in the 5.30 kelso he has a great record in these races but is priced accordingly.
                                                                                                stuart crawfords Taylor is a non runner,but tony martins Lagan Canal in the 6.00 is best priced at 3/1 so sticking a point on,with few dangers are also non runners.

                                                                                                bank 218.35
                                                                                                Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  no joy from Lagan Canal who finished 3rd but just the judge won for a return of 12 points bringing the bank to 230.25.eamonn murhpy on irc makes a case for Sabaidee in the 6.30 ballinrobe,shes off a very low mark with just the one run this year,and with a good claimer on board(3lb ex),could run a good one with the stable in decent form .at 20/1 reckon shes worth a gamble at the price with 4 places paid @ 1/4 the odds,for just a point e/w.

                                                                                                  bank 228.25
                                                                                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                    #50
                                                                                                    non runner for me yesterday so no bet,going for a point each way on Our Man Zebo @ 6/1 in the ballinrobe 6.00,he won last time out over course and distance on todays going in what was only his second start under rules and his first time over hurdles and is michael hourigans only runner here today.has barry geraghty booked but this will be much harder than his maiden win and his trainer thinks his more of a "jumping horse more than anything",but still worth a little nibble.

                                                                                                    point e/w @ 6/1

                                                                                                    228.25
                                                                                                    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                      #51
                                                                                                      non runner again yesterday so no bet,punchestown the port of call today with the going now good to firm and a good forescast for the day.in the 8.15 which is a handicap hurdle with no less than 20 declared.going with Takeyourcapoff @ 17/2,she's needs good to firm to be seen at her best and won last time out in wexford on the flat over 1m6f.off 116 this evening and has won off 123 before (with 3lb ex).mohican22 posted this link over the weekend where her trainer talks about the horse http://www.irishpokerboards.com/foru...postcount=3834 worth a 2 pointer e/w to me with 1/4 the odds 4 places paid.

                                                                                                      bank 226.25
                                                                                                      Last edited by amberleaf; 29-05-13, 09:26. Reason: half asleep.
                                                                                                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                        #52
                                                                                                        the market told the story yesterday with the winner backed from 12s to 7s on course and Takeyourcapoff going 8s to 12s before getting clipped back in to 11/1 before the off,still she finished 4th,which i would have gladly taken a few furlongs out t.b.h. so a return of 7.5 points bringing the bank to 233.75
                                                                                                        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                          #53
                                                                                                          going for another harrington trained horse this evening in gowran Park 8.30,she has stated that the good racing ground have improved horses in her care so hopefully we might see some improvement from Polished Rock @ 8/1,you have to go back to last year to find some decent form lines but was 2nd to Dont Bother Me in a maiden who is now rated 105 with Polished Rock now rated 72,this is the first time for the horse to race on good/firm,tbh you could make a argument for all in this race and looks open enough but worth a point e/w at the odds with 9 runners,paying 3 1/5 of the odds.

                                                                                                          bank 231.75
                                                                                                          Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                            #54
                                                                                                            no joy yesterday with Polished Rock,still worth keeping a eye on tho.off to down royal and going for a right horses for courses job with patrickswell in the 8.20,recent form is very poor with more zeros than man city players wages but has some great form at the track (4 wins from 5 races)has a good draw from stall 3 and has dropped to a very handy mark of 62 with 3 lbs ex(last won off 68 and has won off 80 before),won a total of 9 races 6 of which with this evenings jockey on board.was 16s last night and gone to 12s now with pp(only horse in the race that boyles didnt price up),tbh he could finish last as well as first given recent form but worth a point e/w for me @ 12/1 to finish may off with 4 places paid at 1/4 the odds.

                                                                                                            bank 229.75

                                                                                                            ti 62
                                                                                                            Last edited by amberleaf; 31-05-13, 08:42.
                                                                                                            Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                              #55
                                                                                                              ah well nothing from patrickswell, so in may spent 62 points with a return of 91.75 for a profit of 29.75,nothing spectacular but till do.
                                                                                                              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                                #56
                                                                                                                and on to june,going for a punt on stoute trained Bedouin Invader in the 5.15 lingfield,was 2nd over distance in windsor and has ryan moore on board.draw looks ok & micheal stoute trained horses tend to come on for the second run in maidens so with stan james showing 5/1 reckon this could be a nice e/w shot,37 day break i'm not too sure about but for me anyways worth a punt at the odds.

                                                                                                                2 point e/w @ 5/1 with 1/5th paying 3 places.

                                                                                                                bank 225.75
                                                                                                                Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                                  #57
                                                                                                                  whist,off to a good start in june with Bedouin Invader popping up with a sp of 8/1 for a return of 23.20 bringing the bank to 248.95.notice that willie haggas has just the one in ripon tomorrow night,have to wait for prices but could be worth a look.fairyhouse tomorrow and going to give In Salutem @ 6/1 a spin in the 5.55,ran very well in dundalk last time out winning his maiden and gave the ap o brien trained Master Speaker(a 1/5 on shot at the time)plenty to think about over 6 furlongs before that.looks to be on a upward curve and could run well here as trainer has stated that good ground is needed to see him at his best,on the negative side,this is the hardest he's faced,first time to race on turf as well as first time to race on a right handed track,with just the 6 runners give him a point win

                                                                                                                  bank 247.95
                                                                                                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                                    #58
                                                                                                                    a weeeeee half point trixie with lily Of kenmare @ 4/1 in the 6.55 fh,Paris Rose @ 7/4 in the 8.45 ripon & Plover @ 1/1 in the kempton 6.30,pays a return of 28.38 if they all happen to turn up
                                                                                                                    bit of a 'good on ya good thing' about this one but going for a half point e/w on russian conquest @ 18/1 in the 2.50 newton abbot.
                                                                                                                    now time for some rugger

                                                                                                                    bank 244.95
                                                                                                                    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                                      #59
                                                                                                                      ah well,In Salutem ran a great race ,just getting done on the line but still a lot to like about him.russian conquest ran well for a 18/1 shot i suppose,clattered a few fences at the start which messed up any chance before going on to finish 4th,lily Of kenmare & Plover both won but Paris Rose just found one just too good so just a return of 5 points bringing the bank to 249.95
                                                                                                                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                                        #60
                                                                                                                        going for a little punt in the 6.40 tipperary with the bolger trained Feile Bride @ 9/1,this a maiden over 1m4f and the horse has never raced before.gab put up a few videos on the e.w.g.t where mr bolger explained about his use of his lab and that he doesn't run a horse unless its at a Picticular standard and is sure to be fit,he has landed a few first time out maidens over longer distances this year.she'll have the cheekpiece on but give her a point e/w at the odds

                                                                                                                        bank 247.95
                                                                                                                        Last edited by amberleaf; 06-06-13, 10:24. Reason: wrong bank.
                                                                                                                        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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