UFC 146 - JDS vs Mir and the Heavyweights

[Mellor]

A lot of changing to this card. Ultimately I'm disappointed that Overeem isn't here, but i'm also glad he was caught. All heavyweights on the main card.

Main card
Heavyweight Championship bout: Junior dos Santos (c) vs. Frank Mir

Originally we had the best boxer in JDS verses the best Kickboxer in Overeem. A bit of a change up in JDS training would of been needed as he now faces the best BJJ practitioner in Mir. JDS is no slouch on the ground, as brown belt under the Nogueira bros, but Mir everyone remembers what Mir did to Big Nog.

SPOILER

I think Mir will come out standing and after about 2 tentative minutes try for a take down. JDS is smart and has the ability to dictate where this fight happens. If he does that he wins easily via second round TKO. He only way he gets caught is if he tries a submission win. Which will prob earn him his blackbelt. A lot of Brazilians are patriotic to a fault, especially around BJJ. JDS' grappling coach recently said in an interview that Mir wasn't the best at BJJ because he was American.
How ever, JDS comes across as a smart guy and I don't think he'll be bothered with that route.
Odds: JDS to win 1/5, JDS by TKO 4/10

Heavyweight bout:Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva
I'm a big Cain fan. I was disgusted when JDS dropped him, and also by the way the media did afterwards. He was written off based on one KO, which is ridiculous at that level. Big foot is an ape who upset the world by beating Fedor, if he came straight into the Octagon after that there would be some value on Cain, but bigfoot lost in the interim to daniel Cormier the new SF champ. I'm predicting Cain by late second round TKO.
Odds: Cain to win 1/4, via TKO 4/6

Heavyweight bout: Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman
Roy Nelson doesn't look like much, overweight with a face that resembles Alan from the Hangover. Dave Herman has an impressive record and normally puts guys away. Roy however has a concrete chin. He's only be stopped once, by Andrei Arlovski, and in the past has held on to knock out a gassing opponent. Which is what i think happens here. Nelson also has severely underrated submissions.
However, at 2/5, I don't think its worth a punt.

Heavyweight bout: Shane del Rosario vs. Stipe Miočić
Two lesser known fighters, you could be forgiven for thinking that its a card filler. looking closer they are 11-0 and 8-0 respectively and both have a habit of finishing fights with their fists. The bookies favourite is Miocic, but I think they are righting off the Del Rosario too easy, maybe because its his UFC debut having previously fought in Strikeforce. I won't invest much, but I like 11/8 on Del Rosario.
Odds: Shane del Rosario 11/8

Heavyweight bout: Stefan Struve vs. Lavar Johnson
Lavar Johnson has been vicious. Struve will have a big reach advantage, but I don't think it'll work here. Lavar will get in close and lay off short punches, and then catch him with a big overhand as Struve backs out. This one has split the bookies, evens available for Johnson at paddy power and for Struve from boyles. I think Johnson represents value here.

Preliminary card (FX)

Featherweight bout: Diego Brandao vs. Darren Elkins
Recent TUF winner. Showed vicious stand up in all his bouts, then reminded everyone of the BJJ with a very nice armbar.
I don't think you'll get worthwhile odds on this guy, if at all. I said months ago, before the TUF win, that he'll be fighting Aldo in the future.

Lightweight bout: Edson Barboza vs. Jamie Varner
Barboza is a one of the best strikers to watch. Responsible for probably the best knock out I've seen.

SPOILER

Odds: Barboza 1/5, by TKO

Middleweight bout: Jason Miller vs. C.B. Dollaway
This is a WWE style loser leaves town match. Both on a bad run. Dollaway losing here would be the end of him. Miller has a media presence and a win here could work him back onto a main card. Miller hopefully sorted his cardio. Miller edges this one by decision.

Welterweight bout: Dan Hardy vs. Duane Ludwig
Hardy has had an bad run of four loses. Which normally ends a fighters UFC career. But if you look at the fights he lost. GSP, Conduit, Rumble Johnson and Lytle. It's a different picture. Hopefully he put that behind him and gets the W here. If he loses he's out. grind out a decision here Dan.

Preliminary card (Facebook)

Lightweight bout: Jacob Volkmann vs. Paul Sass
By submission

Light Heavyweight bout: Kyle Kingsbury vs. Glover Teixeira
By TKO

Featherweight bout:Mike Brown vs. Daniel Pineda
By Decision

[TomD]

Very much agree with you on most. I think Dolloway will beat Miller though, by simply grinding him into the cage for three rounds. Miller will gas early.

I'm a huge JDS fan, but i think you're discounting Mir's standup. Not that it matter, because JDS will still win by KTFO

[Gholimoli]

while i agree that Mir has a decent stand up game i don't think it's a good plan to stand up and trade with JDS.
having said that he has heavy hands and should he connect cleant with JDS(or any one else for that matter) he can put them away.

i'm huge Velasquez fan my self and imo he is still the best all around heavy weight in UFC.
his technical ability is really next to none and his cardio is meant to be off the charts(i'm yet to see it my self though as his fights never last that long usually).

i don't rate big foot Silva at all really he is just a big freaky looking guy.
Velasquez to take back the title late this year or early next year.

love to see the rematch between Velasquez and JDS.

[ghostface]

Agree with all that mellor, JDS is just too good for Mir I feel. Looking forward to seeing Lavar Johnson again, looks like a beast and may be fighting for that belt soon enough with couple more wins

[Mellor]

Very much agree with you on most. I think Dolloway will beat Miller though, by simply grinding him into the cage for three rounds. Miller will gas early.

That's one of the match ups I was a bit back and forth on. Miller looked terrible last time out. But he has has time to sort it. Dolloway at looked like he lost heart a lot the last time I seen him.
I realised how cliched that sound.

I'm a huge JDS fan, but i think you're discounting Mir's standup. Not that it matter, because JDS will still win by KTFO

I don't think Mir has bad stand up, he's got some decent wins via strikes. I just see this as a very polarised match up due to their strengths.