Lottery: Lots of 6 numbers or fewer 8numbers

[DonkeyPokerTour]

Hey Guys

My girlfriends dad is talking about the Brazillian Lottery. Over here you can do the usual 6 numbers (their range is 1-60) for 2 reais, or you can do 7 numbers for 14reais, or 8 numbers for 56reais up to a maximum of 15numbers for 10010reais. As the new years eve jackpot is going to be 170million, 139people from his work have put in 100reais each giving 13900reais to buy tickets. So now he's wondering is it better to buy 1x 15numbers and 1945x 6numbers, or just buy 13900 worth of 6numbers. I tried to work out the odds but I'm working it out that its 3times better to do 1x 15 and 1945x 6 than 6950x 6 but I don't think thats right.

The odds of picking the 6 number combination that wins the lottery is 50,063,860 to 1 which at a cost of 2reais each means its 100,127,720reais to be guaranteed to win the lottery.
With 10number combinations it is 238,399.33 to 1 which at a cost of 420reais each means it costs the same 100,127,720reais to be guaranteed to win.
Again with 15numbers it is 10002.7692 to 1 and at a cost of 10010reais mess its the same 100,127,720reais

So to me the odds of just winning should be exactly the same whatever way you spend the 13900. Am I correct? I love probability but this one is stumping me as to how to go about it
Thanks for the help!

[oleras]

Dude, you have a brazillian GF, less stats and more pics !!

[tipp86]

Am i may be drunk but if OP poster has a fool proof system for the lotto im in.The 6 randome numbers doesnt really work well.

[Lord Sir Banter]

Do they have a Brazilian version of Marty Whelan who presents their Winning Streak program?

[CHDad]

He will be shot and killed if he wins anyway so best just leave it.

[Guest]

Is there anyway I can get in on this? I've been looking for someone who has statistically found a way to win on the lottery.

[hotspur]

As you point out the odds of the jackpot are the same as they calculated the price to be equal to the difference in probability.

The question then is about smaller prizes. We would need more figures to calculate which is better in that situation as intuitively it would depend on the prize distribution. At a guess I think I would punt on the larger number of 6 number tickets.

[DonkeyPokerTour]

I knew I should have mentioned that I dont play the lotto at home, to me its a tax on hope!

I thought some of the general gamblers here might know a bit about probability! I was hoping to figure out the maths on it but clearly people are just interested in the get rich quick end of things.

As for picking more than 6 numbers, if you win the jackpot with ticket with more than 6numbers you get more than just the jackpot, you get the jackpot plus x times the 5number prize and y times the 4number prize depending on the amount of numbers you played.