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    my so called edge or bust!

    was thinking of doing something like this for a while,as i think i have an edge over the book.so now im going to try and prove it(to myself)im going to log any bets i have before i make them and see how it goes.i'm going to try and develop some kind of winning strategy over the next year or so. im going to make a few rules for myself,just have to think of them first
    just a little about myself,i had my first bet when i was 12,that was 28 years ago,fuck i'm getting old!of course i won and the seed was planted.i also have dyslexia and when i was at school the only "cure" for this was a swift sneaky dig from a christian brother,ended up leaveing school when i was 16 to work for a builder so you might see some bad spelling and jumbled up letters so take no notice,i have a keen intrest in sport,which helps,the main ones i like are gaa sports and rugby,and of course they are the ones i tend to make a few quid out of,i lose in soccer so might have a good look at that
    Last edited by amberleaf; 05-09-11, 08:10.
    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

    #2
    rule 1 bankroll/bankroll management
    this is key of course,as you cant invest without capital.so for this i'll give myself 1000 euro in total.i'll also use a points system which will tally with my bankroll,for example 1pt = 1% of total bankroll,up to a max of 5%,in other words,right now i'm looking at 10 euro per point,with a max bet of 50 euro.if i get the bankroll up to 1100 euro than its 11 euro per point and if i go down to 900 its 9 euro per point and so on,at the very least by doing it this way if it turns out that in fact i,m a loseing in the long run,it should take a long time to go broke!and in affect not going to loose much sleep over it.

    rule 2 information

    again with out information,sport bettings is a waste of time,i think there is so much info out there online from some very good sites,its fairly easy if you put the work in,one thing tho i would never pay for this i.e pay a tipping service,first of all its lazy,and secondly the whole point of this is to build up a way of thinking that in the long run will give me a decent roi

    rule 3 strategy

    again cant be a bad thing,what i think i might do is to stick with what i call flips or evenish money chanches for now,mainly hcp betting or the like,hopefully build up the roll a bit before haveing a go at some bigger priced bets,at least then i should be useing their money and if one of them clicks will boost the bankroll a bit,i'll also try some systems,useing bet patterns and past stats,see how they work out!

    rule 4 reason
    i MUST have a reason to bet,there must be some thinking behind it even if its the wrong way of thinking at least by sticking it down here i may learn from mistakes that i will make and hopefully learn from it!
    Last edited by amberleaf; 05-09-11, 08:31.
    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

    Comment


      #3
      i really don't know what to say



      "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

      Comment


        #4
        Hey Amber. heard of this bet before. Not sure if it actually works but maybe you mite take a tennar from ur roll and try it. post up before and after results. You mite get a few doing it with you.

        10 win on a 1/10 shot. you win 1 now you have a 11. take 11 and put it on again at 1/10 and now you 12 and so forth. it takes 50 bets at this stake and if you bink all! its a 1k docket.

        If the logic behind this makes sence its worth a tennar.
        http://www.sitnpoker.com/?amigosid=18

        Comment


          #5
          Good luck with this, should be good to follow and see how you're doing

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Angry-Ball View Post
            i really don't know what to say
            just trying to take the thinking behind poker into the sports betting ring,dont know if i'm fooling myself but time will tell i guess
            Mattie McGrath wanna-be

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Ziggin&Zaggin View Post
              Hey Amber. heard of this bet before. Not sure if it actually works but maybe you mite take a tennar from ur roll and try it. post up before and after results. You mite get a few doing it with you.

              10 win on a 1/10 shot. you win 1 now you have a 11. take 11 and put it on again at 1/10 and now you 12 and so forth. it takes 50 bets at this stake and if you bink all! its a 1k docket.

              If the logic behind this makes sence its worth a tennar.
              i might try something based on that kind of bet,but you would be surprized how often 1/10 shots get beat and trying to find 50 might be near impossable.ive looked at systems mainly to do with horseraceing with a supposed higher probability,will give them a go at some point see how it gets on
              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                i might try something based on that kind of bet,but you would be surprized how often 1/10 shots get beat and trying to find 50 might be near impossable.ive looked at systems mainly to do with horseraceing with a supposed higher probability,will give them a go at some point see how it gets on
                Approximately one time in ten?
                Turning millions into thousands

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                  #9
                  Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
                  Approximately one time in ten?
                  One time in eleven obv.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    More than one time in ten, almost surely...

                    Comment


                      #11
                      I think we've probably strayed somewhat from the point at this stage...

                      Comment


                        #12
                        @amberleaf, what are you focussing on?

                        What sports? What markets? What teams?

                        For instance, I reckon I have a pretty good grounding in rugby HC bets, and almost certainly win bets, but these are not near as profitable as they are constantly priced as a huge dog. Two things that I find very important about giving tips / making bets etc.

                        1 - You don't need to win every week. Sometimes the bookies just get it right, and there isn't enough value in your markets to warrant a bet. Don't be afraid to pass when the line isn't right.
                        2 - Stick to what you know. People know horses, people know dogs, people know soccer. Find something that works, and stick to it. Don't believe that because you can win money from Rugby HC betting that you know sfa about Soccer ht/ft bets.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                          @amberleaf, what are you focussing on?

                          What sports? What markets? What teams?

                          For instance, I reckon I have a pretty good grounding in rugby HC bets, and almost certainly win bets, but these are not near as profitable as they are constantly priced as a huge dog. Two things that I find very important about giving tips / making bets etc.

                          1 - You don't need to win every week. Sometimes the bookies just get it right, and there isn't enough value in your markets to warrant a bet. Don't be afraid to pass when the line isn't right.
                          2 - Stick to what you know. People know horses, people know dogs, people know soccer. Find something that works, and stick to it. Don't believe that because you can win money from Rugby HC betting that you know sfa about Soccer ht/ft bets.
                          This is the best advise of all.............
                          Last edited by westlife; 05-09-11, 12:12.
                          D15 CASINO, Mulhuddart Village (opp Blanchardstown shopping centre)

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by Keane View Post
                            One time in eleven obv.
                            Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                            More than one time in ten, almost surely...
                            This is why I say approx

                            The stick to what you know advice is the best line here. Punting is for fun and profit, if it is for profit only then you better be ready to do a whole lot of hard work to know your market better than the market makers.
                            Turning millions into thousands

                            Comment


                              #15
                              I read a stat that 2% of betfair customers are in profit and the majority of their profit is locked in before the event starts so trading is the way of the future but basically betting too little is better than betting too much.

                              Good Luck.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                The best way to start is to specialise in one market within one sport and learn it inside out and various ways to analyse this market and learn how the bookies price it up and how to improve upon it.

                                The best way to find value is to wait for games where there is significant team news coming up to the match.

                                The 2/1 on liverpool was not a bet until fabregas was sold that week, gervinho was suspended, jenkinson was playing full back, wilshire had an ankle injury, van persie was reported as playing through an injury, and kelly was fit to replace robinson and suddenly 2/1 represented great value.

                                This doesn't happen often so you have to read team news for a lot of teams in a lot of leagues and learn how one team can capitalise on anothers misfortunes while the bookies don't generally react quickly enough as they work off stats to a large extent.
                                Last edited by CheckRaise; 05-09-11, 15:45.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  thanks for the replys lads,some good stuff there,will be taken them on board,and as well as sticking to the rules above things will hopefully work out,time will tell ,all comments good or bad are very welcome as to me sportsbetting is all about peoples opions!
                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by CheckRaise View Post
                                    I read a stat that 2% of betfair customers are in profit and the majority of their profit is locked in before the event starts so trading is the way of the future but basically betting too little is better than betting too much.
                                    I've heard values between 2%-5% are winners the rest are losers, annd tbh I refuse to believe it's true. I've spun a small deposit into a reasonable roll on betfair, i'm playing with the same cash i've lodged 3 or more years ago. I jsut don't believe that i'm in the top 2% of punters.

                                    The same stats were marched out about online poker a few years ago, that only 5-10% are winners. A qucik check of any HH database will show trends that it's completely false.

                                    The majority are losers due to commision/rake obviously, but its not skewed like the supposed stats say.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                      @amberleaf, what are you focussing on?

                                      What sports? What markets? What teams?

                                      For instance, I reckon I have a pretty good grounding in rugby HC bets, and almost certainly win bets, but these are not near as profitable as they are constantly priced as a huge dog. Two things that I find very important about giving tips / making bets etc.

                                      1 - You don't need to win every week. Sometimes the bookies just get it right, and there isn't enough value in your markets to warrant a bet. Don't be afraid to pass when the line isn't right.
                                      2 - Stick to what you know. People know horses, people know dogs, people know soccer. Find something that works, and stick to it. Don't believe that because you can win money from Rugby HC betting that you know sfa about Soccer ht/ft bets.
                                      not too sure what sports or markets,i mostly a gaa man but thats almost over.i'm looking at the rugby world cup a lot over the past few days and have come across some good sites regarding up to date team news etc.australia are going with the same team that sorted nz in the tri nations v italy so might start there,also came across a few interviews by the boks players saying how theyre not going to change their game,it looked like they were playing up the kicking a little too much,not too sure about that. the s.a. -6pts 1/2 time hcp v wales looks tasty!
                                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        here we go,nz v tonga,1/2 time hcp tonga +30 pts @ 10/11
                                        my thinking here is that the f/t hcp is tonga +63,but the way i see it i think nz will do most of the damage in the 2nd half,if tonga can hold the score a little in the first 1/4 of the game,perhaps even put a few points on the board themselfs they could well beat this hcp,as in the 2nd half,they the legs will surly start to go,and are more likly to pick up yellow or even red cards which of course will suit nz.they have a lot of players ply their trade in europe these days so hopefully they can put up a decent defence,anyways a 2pt win on tonga +30 1/2 time hcp with boyles(btw pp are +28)
                                        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                          here we go,nz v tonga,1/2 time hcp tonga +30 pts @ 10/11
                                          my thinking here is that the f/t hcp is tonga +63,but the way i see it i think nz will do most of the damage in the 2nd half,if tonga can hold the score a little in the first 1/4 of the game,perhaps even put a few points on the board themselfs they could well beat this hcp,as in the 2nd half,they the legs will surly start to go,and are more likly to pick up yellow or even red cards which of course will suit nz.they have a lot of players ply their trade in europe these days so hopefully they can put up a decent defence,anyways a 2pt win on tonga +30 1/2 time hcp with boyles(btw pp are +28)
                                          result win,just about won with the last kick in the 1st half going over for tonga,tonga played well 2nd 1/2,tbh got very lucky,but i'll take it
                                          Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            bet 2,ireland -31 pts v usa @evens,after looking at a lot of interviews,i think usa will be up for this mainly because of 9/11 but almost half of the starting line up havent got a pro contract.also think the usa will withdraw their better players with a view to the russia(in just four days time) game during the match,hopefully allowing ireland to open the flood gates,also think ireland could do with a good few trys after the warmup games!anyways 2 pt win ireland - 31pts @ evens(boyles)
                                            Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              where are we going to score the trys from?

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                                where are we going to score the trys from?
                                                hopefully,o driscoll,bowe and earls might help us out here,think ireland have gotten a lot of shit from the press after the warm-ups,so might want to put that to bed there and then,and also the bonus pt to be got here,and 5 converted trys beats the hcp,this usa team look a poor out-fit,just think ireland will have a big game here,(also like the 4/7 about the 2nd half haveing more points than the 1st half,but too skinny odds for me)
                                                Last edited by amberleaf; 11-09-11, 01:24.
                                                Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  btw reckon this irish team can rattle this world cup,just looking at the class we have,just think about it after watching england,scotland today!
                                                  Last edited by amberleaf; 11-09-11, 01:26.
                                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                    bet 2,ireland -31 pts v usa @evens,after looking at a lot of interviews,i think usa will be up for this mainly because of 9/11 but almost half of the starting line up havent got a pro contract.also think the usa will withdraw their better players with a view to the russia(in just four days time) game during the match,hopefully allowing ireland to open the flood gates,also think ireland could do with a good few trys after the warmup games!anyways 2 pt win ireland - 31pts @ evens(boyles)
                                                    result lost,but happy nuff with the research.this us team are very poor in my mind and will be looking to back against them,as for ireland,if they get their act together will get to the semis at least!

                                                    might as well keep score me 1 - 1 book
                                                    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      BET 3,RUSSIA TO BT USA @ 12/5,tbh know very little about this russian team,theyre ranked just 1 place behind the usa,but after watching the eagles v ireland,if russia have some sort of scrum,and a maul,contest the line outs reckon they could get the better of this poor usa team.the hcp here is russia + 8 pts@10/11 but going to stick with the win,also putins right hand man is due at the game(as is some russian billionare who is bringing along miss russia 2011 for the trip)russia are starting to push rugby in a big way,and a huge goverment backed promotion is being put in place in the schools there,reckon theres a lot for the players to be gained on this bears team if they can get one over on their old foes here!any ways 2 pt win on russia to bt usa @ 12/5 (powers),also the usa didnt withdraw their top players v ireland,as most of them are not pros they just might feel the pace towards the end of the game!
                                                      Last edited by amberleaf; 12-09-11, 09:08.
                                                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        bet 4,georgia + 21 v scotland,georgia are ranked 16th with romania in 17th place in the world rankings,and with romania giveing the scotts something to think about just loseing by ten points,and scoreing 24pts along the way the + 21 pts looks a gift,anyways 2 pt win georgia + 21pts @ 10/11 boyles(+20 pts on pp)
                                                        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          the + handicaps are not good value in second round.

                                                          Most of the underdog teams will be shattered after leaving it all on the line at the weekend just gone. Whereas the "proper" teams will have taken an emotional beating in training this week, and all will be out to prove a point.

                                                          Saying that, any of the teams yet to play that have a big + HC could be worth a shot, but I think that 21 is probably a fair margin for that game above, wouldn't see too much value there.

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                                            the + handicaps are not good value in second round.

                                                            Most of the underdog teams will be shattered after leaving it all on the line at the weekend just gone. Whereas the "proper" teams will have taken an emotional beating in training this week, and all will be out to prove a point.

                                                            Saying that, any of the teams yet to play that have a big + HC could be worth a shot, but I think that 21 is probably a fair margin for that game above, wouldn't see too much value there.
                                                            agree,tbh my thinking/research behind the few bets ive had is at a very basic level,hopefully at some point in the future i will have a nuff learned to be able to look at a team and see value etc. thus getting the edge in the long run,so breaking even will be a great result for the rwc,if i had just lumped on the + hcp in the first round i would be well ahead but would have learned nothing.
                                                            Last edited by amberleaf; 12-09-11, 10:41.
                                                            Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              bet 5,samoa to win their group @ 16/1,just might be the surprize here,have beaten australia and are in a training camp for nine weeks so well prepared.with the injury list growing with the boks.worth a tiny punt.anyways .5 of a pt(yes a fiver)on samoa @ 16/1(pp)
                                                              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                bet 4,georgia + 21 v scotland,georgia are ranked 16th with romania in 17th place in the world rankings,and with romania giveing the scotts something to think about just loseing by ten points,and scoreing 24pts along the way the + 21 pts looks a gift,anyways 2 pt win georgia + 21pts @ 10/11 boyles(+20 pts on pp)
                                                                result win,it won well but not happy with the prep on this one mainly i didnt wait on till the teams were named,the scots changed 9 starters so were fresh,think in the long run just takeing the +hcp just cause it looks good is a mistake
                                                                on the match itself the geordies pack are a decent outfit,not a bad line out, but the backs look poor nuff and cant see them scoreing many trys,if any v england,dan parks ran the show for the scots,perhaps the england 10 whoever is picked to play might be worth a motm intrest,the hcp v england was 44 but expect that to change,hopefully it will drop nuff to edge towards the minus!also keep an eye on the most points to be scored 1/2


                                                                anyways score me 2-1 book
                                                                Last edited by amberleaf; 14-09-11, 11:06.
                                                                Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                  BET 3,RUSSIA TO BT USA @ 12/5,tbh know very little about this russian team,theyre ranked just 1 place behind the usa,but after watching the eagles v ireland,if russia have some sort of scrum,and a maul,contest the line outs reckon they could get the better of this poor usa team.the hcp here is russia + 8 pts@10/11 but going to stick with the win,also putins right hand man is due at the game(as is some russian billionare who is bringing along miss russia 2011 for the trip)russia are starting to push rugby in a big way,and a huge goverment backed promotion is being put in place in the schools there,reckon theres a lot for the players to be gained on this bears team if they can get one over on their old foes here!any ways 2 pt win on russia to bt usa @ 12/5 (powers),also the usa didnt withdraw their top players v ireland,as most of them are not pros they just might feel the pace towards the end of the game!
                                                                  Surely if you know very little about the team you shouldn't be going near it? You are taking a punt on half the information against the bookie who has all the information!
                                                                  Shouldn't you be only betting where you think that you have the edge over the bookie?
                                                                  (not that I ever do BTW but that's another story )
                                                                  sigpic

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by TheRebelRam View Post
                                                                    Surely if you know very little about the team you shouldn't be going near it? You are taking a punt on half the information against the bookie who has all the information!
                                                                    Shouldn't you be only betting where you think that you have the edge over the bookie?
                                                                    (not that I ever do BTW but that's another story )
                                                                    very valid point,this bet is based on part info which is why i backed them from scratch,(12/5)and not on the hcp.(+8 10/11)what i saw from the usa was very poor in key areas of their game.i think that they came out in a very defenceive mindset v ireland(which is backed up by stats) and in fairness it worked,but v russia they will, imo,will be out to win the game and will be a lot more open if the russians any sort of fowards,setpeice or scrum will be in with big shout.i think takeing the 12/5 win is better this time out, as the risk/reward is better if i'm wrong/right,if you look at the packs from the eastern european lads,their not bad so would think that bears will have something decent as well as they play each other often nuff and are for the most part eqel,i'm still learning and i will make a lot of mistakes along the way but i dont think this is one of them,very good question tho!
                                                                    Last edited by amberleaf; 14-09-11, 11:37.
                                                                    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #35
                                                                      bet 6,russia to beat usa betting in running 30 min in @ 6/1,usa look out on their feet already,think the irish game is taken its toll,russia defending well,but if they keep it tight use their pack will have a very good chance,just 7 pts down at this stage,russian flyhalfs a gobshite!think at 6/1 well worth the risk,1pt win @ 6/1,
                                                                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #36
                                                                        Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                        BET 3,RUSSIA TO BT USA @ 12/5,tbh know very little about this russian team,theyre ranked just 1 place behind the usa,but after watching the eagles v ireland,if russia have some sort of scrum,and a maul,contest the line outs reckon they could get the better of this poor usa team.the hcp here is russia + 8 pts@10/11 but going to stick with the win,also putins right hand man is due at the game(as is some russian billionare who is bringing along miss russia 2011 for the trip)russia are starting to push rugby in a big way,and a huge goverment backed promotion is being put in place in the schools there,reckon theres a lot for the players to be gained on this bears team if they can get one over on their old foes here!any ways 2 pt win on russia to bt usa @ 12/5 (powers),also the usa didnt withdraw their top players v ireland,as most of them are not pros they just might feel the pace towards the end of the game!
                                                                        result lost,no joy and not too sure about my thinking behind this one now,the part info v the odds on offer, in the long run not a good idea,i was getting more or less 2.5 to 1,not too sure if the risk/reward would make it worth my while,and punting without the full info on offer is a mistake,but then again this is tourny rugby with very little sample base to work from,and if russia had won,would it be a bit of a master stroke?perhaps might leave this kind or bet alone untill i get a little more experience!

                                                                        anyways me 2-2 book
                                                                        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          #37
                                                                          Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                          bet 6,russia to beat usa betting in running 30 min in @ 6/1,usa look out on their feet already,think the irish game is taken its toll,russia defending well,but if they keep it tight use their pack will have a very good chance,just 7 pts down at this stage,russian flyhalfs a gobshite!think at 6/1 well worth the risk,1pt win @ 6/1,
                                                                          result lost,but happy nuff with the thinking here,the odds on offer were just too big to walk away from,and would be happy to take them again.the game itself was horrid,just 6 pts scored in 50 min,tells the story dont think italy will be shakeing in their boots looking at this lot,the russian flyhalf looked poor with plenty of mistakes,but in fairness to the usa they kept possesion of the ball,still happy nuff with this one

                                                                          me2-3 book
                                                                          Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #38
                                                                            Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                            very valid point,this bet is based on part info which is why i backed them from scratch,(12/5)and not on the hcp.(+8 10/11)what i saw from the usa was very poor in key areas of their game.i think that they came out in a very defenceive mindset v ireland(which is backed up by stats) and in fairness it worked,but v russia they will, imo,will be out to win the game and will be a lot more open if the russians any sort of fowards,setpeice or scrum will be in with big shout.i think takeing the 12/5 win is better this time out, as the risk/reward is better if i'm wrong/right,if you look at the packs from the eastern european lads,their not bad so would think that bears will have something decent as well as they play each other often nuff and are for the most part eqel,i'm still learning and i will make a lot of mistakes along the way but i dont think this is one of them,very good question tho!
                                                                            the russian f.h. was very poor here,if i had seen him before i wouldnt have touched the game,so broke the info rule,and was a mistake,lesson learned tho!
                                                                            Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                              #39
                                                                              bet 6,sean o brien first try scorer @ 20/1 v aus.think that if this irish have any chance here they will have to keep it tight,use their pack.if they get into the aus 22,i cant see them playing wide.but can see them useing the maul,could be wrong but worth a tiny pop
                                                                              anyways o,brien 1st tryscorer @ 20/1, .5 of a point
                                                                              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                #40
                                                                                BET 7,s.a.-22 v fiji,think the mabs might have shown nuff to imply that this fiji team can be got at,they have made changes but with a missed tackle rate of 25% is just too much in my thinking to sort out in such little time,they took their trys well,but with four comeing from one player?should be well with in the boks to sort that out!as for the boks,no better team to explot any weakness here,also the injurys i feel wont be a huge loss in this game,

                                                                                2pt win,s.a. -21 v fiji @ 10/11 (b)
                                                                                Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  bet 8,pumas -19 v romania,the roms i think look to be a one trick pony,the direct route,think that the pumas are eyeing this one up as a bonus point effort,if they can spred it wide,feel they might just punch a few holes here as the game goes on

                                                                                  2pt win pumas-19 v romania @10/11 (b)
                                                                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    BET 9,DUBLIN V KERRY,HIGHEST SCOREING HALF,2ND HALF @ EVENS
                                                                                    think this will be a defenceive nuff game,kerry have the best forwards line in the country,as a result think you just might have a drifting back by the dubs to combat this,kerry them selfs might have a liitle kink in their own defence,there i feel will be a huge effort by dublin to win the midfield,as the game goes on reckon there is more of a chance of a mistake which could turn this game,ie.a bit more room, a goal or even two,think if this happens, most prob. in the 2nd half.

                                                                                    2pt win,highest scoreing 1/2,2nd 1/2 @ evens (b)
                                                                                    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                                      bet 8,pumas -19 v romania,the roms i think look to be a one trick pony,the direct route,think that the pumas are eyeing this one up as a bonus point effort,if they can spred it wide,feel they might just punch a few holes here as the game goes on

                                                                                      2pt win pumas-19 v romania @10/11 (b)
                                                                                      did what it said on the can,scots could be in trouble here!

                                                                                      result win

                                                                                      me3-3 book
                                                                                      Last edited by amberleaf; 17-09-11, 05:53.
                                                                                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        BET 10,AUS TO WIN BY 6-10 PTS @ 5/1 1 PT WIN
                                                                                        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                                          BET 7,s.a.-22 v fiji,think the mabs might have shown nuff to imply that this fiji team can be got at,they have made changes but with a missed tackle rate of 25% is just too much in my thinking to sort out in such little time,they took their trys well,but with four comeing from one player?should be well with in the boks to sort that out!as for the boks,no better team to explot any weakness here,also the injurys i feel wont be a huge loss in this game,

                                                                                          2pt win,s.a. -21 v fiji @ 10/11 (b)
                                                                                          result win again did what it said on the can

                                                                                          me4-3book
                                                                                          Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                                            BET 10,AUS TO WIN BY 6-10 PTS @ 5/1 1 PT WIN
                                                                                            lost,dont care

                                                                                            me4-4book
                                                                                            Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              The percentage of bets you win is irrelevant, whats the ROI?

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                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                Originally posted by CheckRaise View Post
                                                                                                The percentage of bets you win is irrelevant, whats the ROI?
                                                                                                bit early yet wait till im up to at least 50 and even then its small sample as most are 50/50 shots hopefully win more than i lose,thats the plan anyways
                                                                                                Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  bet11,12,13,

                                                                                                  wales v samioa 1/2 time result 1 pt @ 10/1 draw (b)
                                                                                                  not much between these two in the 1st 1/2 i think

                                                                                                  england v georgia,england to score under 45.5 pts @ 5/6,georgia showed nuff v scotland to keep this under the 45.5...i hope!

                                                                                                  france to bt canada,winning margin 21-25 1 pt @ 7/1 (b)
                                                                                                  looks about right to me,the book has the line drawn at 21 worth a punt i feel!

                                                                                                  up early dis morn "tradeing",and im foooooked,so baba time for me
                                                                                                  Last edited by amberleaf; 17-09-11, 19:14.
                                                                                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                    #50
                                                                                                    Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                                                    bet11,12,13,

                                                                                                    wales v samioa 1/2 time result 1 pt @ 10/1 draw (b)
                                                                                                    not much between these two in the 1st 1/2 i think

                                                                                                    england v georgia,england to score under 45.5 pts @ 5/6,georgia showed nuff v scotland to keep this under the 45.5...i hope! (sorry,max bet 5 pt win)

                                                                                                    france to bt canada,winning margin 21-25 1 pt @ 7/1 (b)
                                                                                                    looks about right to me,the book has the line drawn at 21 worth a punt i feel!

                                                                                                    up early dis morn "tradeing",and im foooooked,so baba time for me
                                                                                                    bet 11 lost,not too bad,just four pts out see a fair bit of these come up in games with a small hcp

                                                                                                    bet 12 won,closer than i was thinking it would be,but nice result all the same

                                                                                                    bet 13 lost,just a few pts out,THIS I FEEL IS THE WAY TO GO,THE BOOK HAVE GOT THE HCP ALL WRONG AS MORE GAMES ARE PLAYED THE SMALLER THE MARGIN GETS AS THEY HAVE MORE INFO TO SET THE HCP,SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO GETTING IT RIGHT,HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO USE TO MY ADVANTAGE!

                                                                                                    score me 5-6 book
                                                                                                    Last edited by amberleaf; 18-09-11, 22:27.
                                                                                                    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                      #51
                                                                                                      Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                                                      BET 9,DUBLIN V KERRY,HIGHEST SCOREING HALF,2ND HALF @ EVENS
                                                                                                      think this will be a defenceive nuff game,kerry have the best forwards line in the country,as a result think you just might have a drifting back by the dubs to combat this,kerry them selfs might have a liitle kink in their own defence,there i feel will be a huge effort by dublin to win the midfield,as the game goes on reckon there is more of a chance of a mistake which could turn this game,ie.a bit more room, a goal or even two,think if this happens, most prob. in the 2nd half.

                                                                                                      2pt win,highest scoreing 1/2,2nd 1/2 @ evens (b)
                                                                                                      won,again did what it said on the tin!wow on the 1/1 on offer

                                                                                                      score me 6-6 book
                                                                                                      Last edited by amberleaf; 18-09-11, 22:28.
                                                                                                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                        #52
                                                                                                        Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                                                        score me 6-6 book
                                                                                                        It's your thread so I don't want to hijack it, but what sort of method is this for determining the success or otherwise of your selections????

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                                                                                                          #53
                                                                                                          Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
                                                                                                          It's your thread so I don't want to hijack it, but what sort of method is this for determining the success or otherwise of your selections????
                                                                                                          can i ask you one quistion,do you think i'm ahead of the book?
                                                                                                          Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                            #54
                                                                                                            Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                                                            can i ask you one quistion,do you think i'm ahead of the book?
                                                                                                            I don't know, I haven't read through the thread and really I'm not that bothered, but if you had a running P/L as most people would consider the standard method of 'keeping score' in something like this, there would be need to ask that question.

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                                                                                                              #55
                                                                                                              Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
                                                                                                              I don't know, I haven't read through the thread and really I'm not that bothered, but if you had a running P/L as most people would consider the standard method of 'keeping score' in something like this, there would be need to ask that question.
                                                                                                              alright lad,you might have a look at the first few posts on the thrend,all the best sir
                                                                                                              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                                #56
                                                                                                                Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                                                                alright lad,you might have a look at the first few posts on the thrend,all the best sir
                                                                                                                Which bits? I read the first few posts and don't see any reason to keep record of your bets in the way you are doing. Anyway I'm only trying to give you advise, take it or leave it.

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                                                                                                                  #57
                                                                                                                  Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
                                                                                                                  Which bits? I read the first few posts and don't see any reason to keep record of your bets in the way you are doing. Anyway I'm only trying to give you advise, take it or leave it.
                                                                                                                  alright,lad
                                                                                                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                                    #58
                                                                                                                    i'm just in to 14 bets here,over the next year or i would think there will be somewhere around 600-700 bets in total,so its baby steps stuff for now.think people are missing the point here as well,this will take perhaps a year(maybe more) to get a detailed stratergy up and running.i might do a little review when i get to 40 or 50 bets,at that point i'll see if i'm in profit or not,until then i'll keep the scoreing thing going.its way too early for a return of investment reading,i would think you would need at least a few hundred before i would even think about that!i'm not sure how this will work out,but from the tiny sample of bets i have,i,m very happy with the thinking behind most
                                                                                                                    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                                      #59
                                                                                                                      bet 14,italy v russia,highest scoreing 1/2,second 1/2 max bet 5 pts @4/6
                                                                                                                      even at odds on just cant get away from this,i think this should be at least 1/2,the italy team did thir best work towards the end of the ozz game,hopefully they wont try and run the ball in the first half and just it grind out!

                                                                                                                      anyways highest scoreing 1/2,the 2nd 1/2 5 pt win@ 4/6
                                                                                                                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                                        #60
                                                                                                                        Im with the lads its like a way of hiding that your losing. Id follow it if the record was kept normal.
                                                                                                                        Pm for rakeback deals

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