Big decision - opinions needed

[markc]

Hi all,

Really appreciate some feedback on the following scenario encountered last night.

EUR30 Live NL Tourney, 30 Runners, 18 remaining. Average Stack 13k ish. Blinds 400-800.

Villian 1 - Cutoff - Stack of 10k approx. Pretty solid player, reasonably tight.

Hero - Small blind - Stack of 16k ish

Villian 2 - Big Blind - Stack approx 22k. Experienced player, very LAG

Backround: For some reason Villian 2 decides a few hands previously to keep going all-in blind before the flop. Announces this intention prior to cards being dealt. Has done it 3 times in a row and has either won without a contest, split the pot or won a showdown to the river. He announces his intention to do the same again before dealing. Action panned out as follows:

- Everyone folded to Villian 1 who raised for 3500
- Button folds
- Hero takes a look and wakes up with pocket kings

Interested in finding out what people would do in this scenario believing Villian 2 will follow through on his promise to go all in blind for the 4th time in a row. Also interested in the factors people would work through to reach a decision.

Will post the outcome later - was pretty interesting to say the least...

[jackthree]

thats a big raise preflop by villain 1 if it werre me i just flat call the raise and hope to christ the idiot villain two ships

[8611]

I suppose a lot depends on whether villain 2's statement is binding. I think it is by the way.

If it is binding then its almost irrelevant as you cannot fold here. in theory you can try and get villain 1 out of the pot by raising now (instead of flat calling then calling villain 2's all in when it comes back around) but villain 1 would also be insane to fold now so get the chips in.

If it isn't binding prob push to discourage villain 2 dogging you with 85. I have absolutey no prob in just flat calling either though.

[shano_88]

I flat and wait for villian 2 to shove.

[Angry-Ball]

i flat here

and wait for the bb to push allin as promised

then i hope that the other guy calls the allin

then you get all your chips in


you are a fool if you didn't get it all in against a egit who is pushing blind and another competent player you should be a huge favourite in a 3 way pot unless someone turns aces

[kincsem]

He is hoping to pick up 1200 blinds with a 3000 bet. I would go all-in with the KK.
I would prefer that the big blind folds and then the button folds and you pick up 3600.
If the all-in call is binding then you will more than likely get a double up, and the button will fold as he knows you have a big hand.
If the big blind wants to follow his boast and go all-in then let him. I assume he has the average hand of Q7o. If he decides to look at his hand and call then he might have better.
My guess is the button has A9o or similar.

[bp_me]

I suppose a lot depends on whether villain 2's statement is binding. I think it is by the way.

After the second time the floor should be called and the player warned about acting out of turn.

I'm not sure whether or not it's binding. It would depend on when the intention was announced. In general the hand is considered to have started from the first riffle of the deck. In theory any statements of intent after that may be binding. In practice there is room for some common sense here.

[markc]

Thanks all. Pretty much mirrors how I looked at it. I thought about it for about 10 seconds and decided to shove. Am I right in saying that unless someone had aces I was probably 80% to beat either hand therefore approx 64% to beat both of them?

Anyway, villian2 decided to look at one card and then shoved with AQo and villian1 shoved also - he had pocket 10's. Flop was 5 2 Q rainbow. Don't remember the turn but river was a Q to send both myself and Villian1 to the rail...

Not too unhappy about it - apart from the sick beat of course Just wondering if anyone would have laid down the kings rather than get into a (most likely) 3 way all-in..

As for whether Villain2's statement was binding, I think he was smart enough to state his intentions before the deal had started so he may have got off on a technicality. Either way -I made my play on the assumption he would shove...

[BobSloane]

Just wondering if anyone would have laid down the kings rather than get into a (most likely) 3 way all-in...

Wonder no more. Nobody would have(unless they have gone >4mins without oxygen)
Download http://www.pokerstove.com/

[dannydiamond]

I would prefer that the big blind folds and then the button folds and you pick up 3600.

Why in gods name would you want everone to fold?

Just wondering if anyone would have laid down the kings rather than get into a (most likely) 3 way all-in..

You have kings, you should be delighted with the action and get your chips in asap!

[Angry-Ball]

Why in gods name would you want everone to fold?



You have kings, you should be delighted with the action and get your chips in asap!

have to agree here

[Angry-Ball]

After the second time the floor should be called and the player warned about acting out of turn.

I'm not sure whether or not it's binding. It would depend on when the intention was announced. In general the hand is considered to have started from the first riffle of the deck. In theory any statements of intent after that may be binding. In practice there is room for some common sense here.

i woulda called the floor when he hit trips and complain that he acted outta turn or if he turned aces

[markc]

i woulda called the floor when he hit trips and complain that he acted outta turn or if he turned aces

Tempted - believe me I was tempted. Pretty sick beat. Whatever about the guy catching an Ace but to get 2 queens - anyways, its a sick game sometimes...

[markc]

have to agree here

That's exactly what I figured - hence the shove. In a cash game or any re-buy scenario it's real simple. I just wonder if in a tourney freezeout scenario if it is always the right play - everyone so far seems to think it is.

Am I right in saying that assuming 2 callers to my shove I am a 64% favourite to win the hand to a showdown - assuming no one has aces? If so it's not that far from a coin toss and tbh in that scenario with almost 20 BB's and better than average stack I wonder if it would be better to wait sometimes...

[Moneymaker]

Sigh.

[ianmc38]

Sigh.

yup

[8611]

I just wonder if in a tourney freezeout scenario if it is always the right play

yes. the circumstances in which it is not the right play are so rare you must disregard them.

Am I right in saying that assuming 2 callers to my shove I am a 64% favourite to win the hand to a showdown - assuming no one has aces? If so it's not that far from a coin toss and tbh in that scenario with almost 20 BB's and better than average stack I wonder if it would be better to wait sometimes...

the purpose of poker is to get your money in good, or to make your opponent fold when you're bad. if you fold kings pre you're missing the first part and achieving the second for others. forget about the exact odds here its irrelevant. the point is you are your getting your money in about as good as you can pre-flop, and in the circumstances of this particular hand, you are getting it in even better.

[Laois Hammer]

Surely you could of waited for a better spot than a button raise and a maniac bb shoving every hand. KK never good here imo.