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    Gambling Forum - General Discussion Thread - its not a rick!

    The one and only extra OT thread...

    #2
    Deadly

    had good weekend, Solwit 6/5, only horse I've backed since before Christmas. Kaymer 14/1 in abu, waiting on Tim Clark in the states to top it off, for a nice top ten double with Kaymer 8/5+9/4. I think Tim can win his first pga event in the final round tomorrow so a bit disappointed I didn't stick a little on the win double 14/1 and 20/1, now that-ed be a sweet sweat.

    Comment


      #3
      Lads, does anyone do rugby betting? Or know of any good markets for it? I've been doing the Sportguru game prediction for the past year or two, Heineken Cup, Magners League, 6Nations etc, and I've > 75% prediction status over > 150 games.

      Most of the value in rugby betting is eaten up by the handicap / win margin, so there's never really any clear cut chances. But I would fancy running a few small accumulators on the winning teams without Handicaps.

      Anyone know of a good place to start this out? Would only be betting very small amounts.

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by emmet02 View Post
        Lads, does anyone do rugby betting? Or know of any good markets for it? I've been doing the Sportguru game prediction for the past year or two, Heineken Cup, Magners League, 6Nations etc, and I've > 75% prediction status over > 150 games.

        Most of the value in rugby betting is eaten up by the handicap / win margin, so there's never really any clear cut chances. But I would fancy running a few small accumulators on the winning teams without Handicaps.

        Anyone know of a good place to start this out? Would only be betting very small amounts.
        This forum could be good, don't start talking about rugby ffs.
        We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then is not an act, but a habit.

        Comment


          #5
          Mike Weir for the Bob Hope going into tomorrows final round ?

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by dannydiamond View Post
            This forum could be good, don't start talking about Munster ffs.
            FYP

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              #7
              Originally posted by Solskjaer View Post
              Mike Weir for the Bob Hope going into tomorrows final round ?
              not for me but theirs value to be had as I think the two in front dont count, not having the bub for a sec.

              Have a look at that fantasy golf on yahoo be good to set up a weekly buster between a few of us like we were talking last year.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by emmet02 View Post
                Lads, does anyone do rugby betting? Or know of any good markets for it? I've been doing the Sportguru game prediction for the past year or two, Heineken Cup, Magners League, 6Nations etc, and I've > 75% prediction status over > 150 games.

                Most of the value in rugby betting is eaten up by the handicap / win margin, so there's never really any clear cut chances. But I would fancy running a few small accumulators on the winning teams without Handicaps.

                Anyone know of a good place to start this out? Would only be betting very small amounts.
                Emmet its early days but Italy look like they have a very poor squad this year even there forwards without Parisse look shyte.

                Think the handicap is minus 20 pts which seems a lot but as defending grand slam champs we should really put a big score on them.

                I have lumped on already hope its a fine clear day.

                Comment


                  #9
                  6 Nations betting is a good place to start for a rugby beginner - there's plenty coverage, huge liquidity in the markets, and far more importantly there's ample time between games to get your homework done.

                  Scotland minus whatever points was my personal favourite of last years event. Was it against Italy? Last Saturday of February? They'd had a guy banned from the previous match which was against Wales I think and I knew Scotland would moider them.

                  Anyway, if you want to get into handicap betting, simply check out Ladbrokes, Boyles, Paddy, etc for each game, and decide from there where to put your cash. Boyles often have a 2 point swing from Laddies/Paddy in favour of the underdog, and pay 1.91 on the market compared to 1.83 elsewhere.
                  Hey buddy, did ya get that thing I sent ya?

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                    #10
                    Oh and ferocious match in the tennis at the moment. Verdasco back in control from 2 sets down. Outstanding stuff.
                    Hey buddy, did ya get that thing I sent ya?

                    Comment


                      #11
                      First post and I'm gonna moan.

                      Went to Leop yesterday, sack lost.

                      Had a decent treble, Rite of Passage, Solwhit and Quel Esprit (beaten at 2/7 ffs).

                      Also had nice bet on Sublimity without Solwhit and Celestial Halo. THought I was buying money. About five lenghts clear of Donnas Palm jumping last and caught for second about 30 yards from home. Sick.

                      Had to leave before last, throw jacket in boot and get home to find text on phone (in jacket) for tip for last winner (9/2).

                      Bad day all around.

                      Roll on the Hennessy.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        I follow Wayne Bailey's tips every day from his website www.waynebaileyracing.com. Can't remember who it was who posted the link in t'other place, but thanks mysterious stranger. In the last few months I've turned €30 into €130 (and was up to €180 at one point) by following his advice every day.

                        I also follow Hugh Taylor and Gary O'Brien on www.attheraces.com, although it can be hard to get the prices that Taylor suggests unless you're very quick.
                        "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

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                          #13
                          Backed McIlroy for the first time ever last weekend E/W, so nice profit there, and managed to turn an OK profit from the Spurs/Leeds game. Backed Right of Passage, and had an OK lay on Quel Esprit. I had one decent size loser as well, but a very nice weekend all in all. I've managed to get seriously stuck into Diamond Harry for the Sun Alliance, but will be looking to get off a bit of that before the event, but I think all the value in that is long gone.

                          Why do people still use the bookies? I see people in this thread talking about Paddy Powers, Boyles, Laddys etc. Just use betfair. Its almost always better.
                          Foldaramus et foldarabimus

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                            #14
                            Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                            only if your betting on the show. no liquidity early doors and unless your betting in buttons you wont get matched at the high street price alot of the time early in the game.
                            Thats pretty rare. Any decent sized event will have enough antepost liquidity. There are some cases where I'd use bookies, and I guess your right that that can be one. The cases quoted were ones where you'd certainly be better off using BF though.
                            Foldaramus et foldarabimus

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                              #15
                              ...
                              "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                #16
                                Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
                                I've managed to get seriously stuck into Diamond Harry for the Sun Alliance, but will be looking to get off a bit of that before the event, but I think all the value in that is long gone.
                                Punchestowns is still serious value in this race, he was just about as good as Big Bucks over hurdles and is built to be a chaser. Will be less than 2/1 on the day.

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                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide to... View Post
                                  How stupid is a bet on Sunderland to be relegated at 18/1 on betfair?
                                  Liverpool are more likely to win the league imo

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                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide to... View Post
                                    How stupid is a bet on Sunderland to be relegated at 18/1 on betfair?
                                    seeing you can get 20/1 with Coral, 16's aint that good. shop around. people not using www.oddschecker.com is ridiculous

                                    Also re your bet, Cattermole is making his comeback this week. He is vital to Sunderland and whenever he plays, their results are remarkably better. If he got injured again, then maybe, but otherwise id hold out.

                                    FWIW hoping hull go down, have them at evens from start of the season
                                    GAA News Website

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                                      #19
                                      Just joined, this thread is great! Seriously lacking from the other site imo. Hopefully it won't be cursed

                                      Anyone on Facebook, this guy does his own ratings, gives the info for free each morning, asking only for a donation to racing charities. Ive just been getting the info for a week so will leave it a while longer before I actually think about investing. Its only on UK handicaps, something I would normally skip over, so it might be interesting. http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gi...9735365&ref=ts

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                                        #20
                                        This thread is just Beautiful, should be great when the weekends come round.

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                                          #21
                                          would also be a big fan of arranging a thread were we can facilitate each others bets (obv when each person vouched for or trusted). instead of betting 10/11 with the bookie, if theres a handicap you want to get on, let someone oppose you and take evens on it here instead.

                                          Its very successful on 2+2 but i think we may need a few more members first? thoughts???
                                          GAA News Website

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                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Semibluff View Post
                                            seeing you can get 20/1 with Coral, 16's aint that good. shop around. people not using www.oddschecker.com is ridiculous

                                            Also re your bet, Cattermole is making his comeback this week. He is vital to Sunderland and whenever he plays, their results are remarkably better. If he got injured again, then maybe, but otherwise id hold out.

                                            FWIW hoping hull go down, have them at evens from start of the season
                                            Reid will be fit again soon too, and they always score goals when he's in the team. They'll be fine IMO. If I was gonna take a punt on the relegation market I'd say Blackburn are definitely going down the table from where they are.
                                            "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

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                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Semibluff View Post
                                              Its very successful on 2+2 but i think we may need a few more members first? thoughts???
                                              Feel free to start it, we're open to doing whatever you guys want, if it works on 2+2 and you think it'll work here, feel free. If the plain old gambling stuff gets too cluttery for here, we can just make a sub forum and move the stuff in there... but for now, everyone should make themselves at home and we can all look at things later, we'll make the end decisions but it's the communities forum first and foremost.

                                              Maybe if more people that will be using this thread want it, do it, but everyone should feel free to ask for new things or to try new approaches. We have the siggestions forum at the bottom because we want to do whatever you guys want, or whatever was missing on boards, we have complete control here so we can do alot more then we could on boards. We won't do everything suggested by everyone but anything that has some sort of backing or that sounds good will be tried.

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                                                #24
                                                ...
                                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                  #25
                                                  Wouldn't it be fine just to have those kinda bets in here? A seperate thread would only get used by random speculators. Most of the bets that happened between posters in the old BBV happened when two people were discussing something and disagreed.
                                                  "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

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                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide to... View Post
                                                    These are his recommendations for today:





                                                    What does he mean when he says "20/80" in relation to the bet?
                                                    AFAIK he means he bets 20% of his stake on the win and 80% of it to place.

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                                                      #27
                                                      I'd love the possibility of matching bets in here too. Cuts down on commission from BF too, so you can actually take a slightly worse price, and also means you don't have to lock up as much funds if its a good way antepost.
                                                      Foldaramus et foldarabimus

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                                                        #28
                                                        Also, Betfair down at the moment for anyone else?
                                                        Foldaramus et foldarabimus

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                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
                                                          Also, Betfair down at the moment for anyone else?
                                                          yep, for the last hr or so.

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                                                            #30
                                                            I'm looking for a price that none of the first 3 home in last years Champion Hurdle will get placed this year. So namely, Punjabi, Celestial Halo or Binocular NOT to be placed in this year's CH.

                                                            I'll happily cancel the bet if all 3 don't go to post and I'm only looking to get about 20/30 on.

                                                            Start the bidding gents/ladies.

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                                                              #31
                                                              wow hugh taylor picked stormin exit 2:35 newcastle as a 4point win this morning at 20/1 its after winning at 7/1 there now, didnt see it till just before the race but managed to get a tenner on it just before the off

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                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by careca View Post
                                                                I'm looking for a price that none of the first 3 home in last years Champion Hurdle will get placed this year. So namely, Punjabi, Celestial Halo or Binocular NOT to be placed in this year's CH.

                                                                I'll happily cancel the bet if all 3 don't go to post and I'm only looking to get about 20/30 on.

                                                                Start the bidding gents/ladies.
                                                                If you want the option that if all 3 of them don't run, you get your money back, then I'll get you started at 4/3.
                                                                Foldaramus et foldarabimus

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                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by redzerdrog View Post
                                                                  wow hugh taylor picked stormin exit 2:35 newcastle as a 4point win this morning at 20/1 its after winning at 7/1 there now, didnt see it till just before the race but managed to get a tenner on it just before the off
                                                                  Nice. I got it at 12's about 10 minutes after he posted it. It's crazy how those prices shoot in. I'd say there's money to be made by taking the best price you can find early on and then laying them at sp for guaranteed profit. I shouldn't have said that, should I?
                                                                  "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
                                                                    If you want the option that if all 3 of them don't run, you get your money back, then I'll get you started at 4/3.
                                                                    Sorry, think you misunderstood me there.

                                                                    Obv if one/two/three of them don't run then my bet has a better chance of coming up. What I was saying was if one of them don't run, I'd be happy to cancel the bet. Therefore I don't want the option, but I'm willing to give it to the layer.

                                                                    Does that make sense (I know it reads bad).

                                                                    Have to go now, but I'll check back later/in the morning.

                                                                    Cheers.

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                                                                      #35
                                                                      Well, you can have the 4/3 if I can only cancel it if none of the 3 run (which is what I thought you were saying), and I'll give you 6/4 if I can cancel if if any of them don't run.
                                                                      Foldaramus et foldarabimus

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                                                                        #36
                                                                        Originally posted by careca View Post
                                                                        First post and I'm gonna moan.

                                                                        Went to Leop yesterday, sack lost.

                                                                        Had a decent treble, Rite of Passage, Solwhit and Quel Esprit (beaten at 2/7 ffs).

                                                                        Also had nice bet on Sublimity without Solwhit and Celestial Halo. THought I was buying money. About five lenghts clear of Donnas Palm jumping last and caught for second about 30 yards from home. Sick.

                                                                        Had to leave before last, throw jacket in boot and get home to find text on phone (in jacket) for tip for last winner (9/2).

                                                                        Bad day all around.

                                                                        Roll on the Hennessy.
                                                                        Quel Esprit let me down for the jackpot, (20 times). You were unlucky on sublimity in the without bet. had he not kicked on before the turn and been held up for his usual late run I think he defin. would have been 2nd
                                                                        D15 CASINO, Mulhuddart Village (opp Blanchardstown shopping centre)

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                                                                          #37
                                                                          What's peoples view on this Hugh Taylor chap from ATR? Has anyone ever known a tipster that has such a crazy affect on markets with all the prices on his tips getting immediately slashed as soon as he puts them out.
                                                                          Profit before people.

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                                                                            #38
                                                                            there is so much value to be got from pre-season GAA (in football anyway) FWIW il be staying away from Meath and Dublin this Wednesday but Il be looking to invest heavily again this weekend.

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                                                                              #39
                                                                              Originally posted by Rekop Dog View Post
                                                                              What's peoples view on this Hugh Taylor chap from ATR? Has anyone ever known a tipster that has such a crazy affect on markets with all the prices on his tips getting immediately slashed as soon as he puts them out.
                                                                              its prob pretty easy to see how accurate his tips have been over the years. But id guess that the market moves are over the top, and as such by default id lay his tips at their lowest point
                                                                              GAA News Website

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                                                                                #40
                                                                                Originally posted by Semibluff View Post
                                                                                its prob pretty easy to see how accurate his tips have been over the years. But id guess that the market moves are over the top, and as such by default id lay his tips at their lowest point
                                                                                He's hugely successful himself and shows his stats with huge profit but obviously with the prices being slashed immediately, nobody else is getting the value he gets. People still back his tips at low prices though which I find absolutely ridiculous. I wonder at what point do they become profitable to lay!?
                                                                                Profit before people.

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                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  alot of his succes would be getting the horse at the early price and not when all the value has gone. To be honest i dont really know when would be good to start laying his horses. depends on when he gives the tip, when the horses prices stabilizes a bit, and obv before it drifts out a little again.

                                                                                  Another Q: I got third choice to pick a team to win the 6 nations. Obviously Ireland and France taken, im probably lost cause anyways, but England or Wales??
                                                                                  GAA News Website

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                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    Originally posted by Semibluff View Post

                                                                                    Another Q: I got third choice to pick a team to win the 6 nations. Obviously Ireland and France taken, im probably lost cause anyways, but England or Wales??
                                                                                    I'd go with Wales simply because they've 3 home games to Englands 2
                                                                                    Profit before people.

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                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      hmm wales are at home to France but away to Ireland and England

                                                                                      England are home to Ireland and Wales but away to France.

                                                                                      Id go with England due to their home ties and the high standard in the premiership this year - you just have to hope players form carries through to internationals

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                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        Originally posted by Rekop Dog View Post
                                                                                        I'd go with Wales simply because they've 3 home games to Englands 2
                                                                                        it doesnt matter if your playing away to Italy or Scotland as you would expect to win anyway because they are Sh!te

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                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          scotland wont actually be that bad this year could pull off a shock or two along the way imo

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                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by bubbleking View Post
                                                                                            it doesnt matter if your playing away to Italy or Scotland as you would expect to win anyway because they are Sh!te
                                                                                            I'm pretty sure Scotland beat England in the last 2 Murryfield games so I'd say home advantage here is pretty important!

                                                                                            Edit last 3 times, I looked it up- online.
                                                                                            Last edited by The Situation; 25-01-10, 20:45.
                                                                                            Profit before people.

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                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              About time we got one of these threads..Fun times and hopefully profitable times ahead
                                                                                              "Quitters never win, Winners never quit."

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                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                advice to anyone wanting to make money from betting STOP making fun accum bets, with 10ers you dont mind losing. If your only gambling for the sake of it and dont mind losing, then take note of the ridic accum you would have done, that your getting 22/1 on when it should really be 35/1 . . . and write down the amount you would have bet on it. And then after the first 10 lose, and you have an extra 100E in your pocket, try putting it on a bet you've an edge on OR just buy something with it!

                                                                                                Leave the retardo bets to the tards in the other place! tyty
                                                                                                GAA News Website

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                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  Originally posted by Semibluff View Post
                                                                                                  advice to anyone wanting to make money from betting STOP making fun accum bets, with 10ers you dont mind losing. If your only gambling for the sake of it and dont mind losing, then take note of the ridic accum you would have done, that your getting 22/1 on when it should really be 35/1 . . . and write down the amount you would have bet on it. And then after the first 10 lose, and you have an extra 100E in your pocket, try putting it on a bet you've an edge on OR just buy something with it!

                                                                                                  Leave the retardo bets to the tards in the other place! tyty
                                                                                                  i said it already but there is unbelievable value in pre-season GAA - not for any mad skillz accumulators but def room for some doubles and the odd triple

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                                                                                                    #50
                                                                                                    yeh agree, with the teams being so experimental the bookies wont know what to make of the teams or how to price them, if you had a few mates on either team giving you info, you could get massive edge. post what you fancy anyways
                                                                                                    GAA News Website

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                                                                                                      #51
                                                                                                      yeah no worries - Im actually fortunate in the regard that I have a lot of friends on the DCU GAA team and the bookies give up a massive edge when it comes to college teams. DCU were 3/1 to beat westmeath who are terrible - won by 10 points and 5/4 to beat Offaly who arent great either - won by 8.

                                                                                                      It also helps that we can call up various players before the teams are released to the public - gets you that extra little bit of value

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                                                                                                        #52
                                                                                                        I don't really agree about the accum small bets. Most people are sticking the 10er on for a bit of interest/fun etc. They are more entertainment bets. In terms of things you can waste your money on they are going to be alot less -EV life wise than say drink or smokes.

                                                                                                        Its the idiots that place serious money on these kind of bets that I don't understand.

                                                                                                        Opr

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                                                                                                          #53
                                                                                                          Dublin -2 v Meath in Navan this weekend is a decent bet imo. Close game in Parnell Park that Dublin would have won if Bernard Brogan knew the new rule changes. Can't see Dublin losing this one having had a good crack at them already.
                                                                                                          You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
                                                                                                          World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011

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                                                                                                            #54
                                                                                                            Do any of you subscribe to tippsers? I flirted with this last year and made had a ~15% ROI.

                                                                                                            Gave it up as placing bets was taking up too much time and missus was havign a go at time spent.

                                                                                                            Whats your thoughts and could you recommend anyone?

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                                                                                                              #55
                                                                                                              Anybody following the Australian Open this year, besides me that is?

                                                                                                              I had a couple of bets so far and am doing quite well.

                                                                                                              Anyways, I think Nadia Petrova has to be backed tonight, she is currently trading at 3.2 on Betfair, she hasn't got a good record against Henin but Henin is only back after a long time out. Petrova lost to her 7-5 7-5 in Brisbane this year but I think Petrova has peaked now.

                                                                                                              She destroyed Clijsters and then beat Kuznetsova in three sets where she lost the second but completely dominated the first and third sets. I've watched Henin and she has willed her way through some tough matches but I just don't think that will be enough here, her service game is just too poor at the moment and Petrova will be all over that second serve.

                                                                                                              I really like all the singles matches tonight bar one, that being Murray vs Nadal.

                                                                                                              I like Roddick to beat Cilic at 1.63 and I like Zheng at 1.67 to beat Kirilenko.
                                                                                                              'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

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                                                                                                                #56
                                                                                                                Originally posted by Kayroo View Post
                                                                                                                Dublin -2 v Meath in Navan this weekend is a decent bet imo. Close game in Parnell Park that Dublin would have won if Bernard Brogan knew the new rule changes. Can't see Dublin losing this one having had a good crack at them already.
                                                                                                                Id stay away from it tbh - AFAIK the game has been switched to Wednesday night in Navan. a few things to consider

                                                                                                                1. Meath are very strong at home and have been for the last few years even though the standard of football in the county has dropped.
                                                                                                                2. Gilroy will probably use this game as one last chance to try and "blood" new players he wants his starting 15 to be well rested for a HUGE league opener against Kerry.
                                                                                                                3. players are probably still boll**ed from the weekend so form goes out the window and itl prob just turn into a scrap.
                                                                                                                4. there is better value to be had in the O'byrne cup

                                                                                                                basically it could go either way so I just wouldnt bother

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                                                                                                                  #57
                                                                                                                  Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                                                                                                  im just posting this here cos i like looking at it.

                                                                                                                  yeah but how much did you lose

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                                                                                                                    #58
                                                                                                                    well done Nicky I needed someone to put me off Weir, I'll buy you a beer next time, got the winner for a modest amount . Poor Clarke, no balls to win it imo. Laying up was silly with the situation at hand. Bubba played well enough but his lay up at 14 was stunningly lacking in ambition, wtf, he pisses his own advantage away

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                                                                                                                      #59
                                                                                                                      Two great golf finals days this week. Would of liked to see clark get his head in front but he's a definite first time winner this year on the pgatour. Many consider him a bottler but watching him playing the presidents cup last year, the quality of his golf was brilliant and I think he might nick a British Open one year.

                                                                                                                      I'd been backing Haas with success toptens and twentys at the end of last season and good to see him get his nose in front, he can kick on from this and have a really good year.

                                                                                                                      Looking to the Quater Masters. Kaymer won last week and watching him over the four days, he won playing his B-game. Theirs not many golfers I'd consider backing a week after they've won but this guys one that can. 11/1 generally might seem a bit skinny but in years to come 11/1 Kaymer in this type of field will probably seem big; I'm backing him again anyway. Also having a little on Gooosen seemed to be on top of his game in Hawaii.
                                                                                                                      Last edited by nicnicnic; 25-01-10, 23:43.

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                                                                                                                        #60
                                                                                                                        Originally posted by nicnicnic View Post
                                                                                                                        Two great golf finals days this week. Would of liked to see clark get his head in front but he's a definite first time winner this year on the pgatour. Many consider him a bottler but watching him playing the presidents cup last year, the quality of his golf was brilliant and I think he might nick a British Open one year.
                                                                                                                        Agree with this, he's not a big time bottler at all, although he made a balls of it last year at colonial, and tonights lay up was lame. Won the scottish open against a strong field and always puts in a good show in presidents cup, Might be worth a shout in the match play in a few weeks.

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